Yeah, there is a lot of regional variation. Bavaria is the region most badly hit whereas where I live we have an incidence of like 4 per 100,000 and hardly any restrictions. So that may have something to do with it.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) are here to discuss three 1-1 draws.
The first got us knocked out of the FA Cup, the next puts us in a good position in our Round of 16 Europa League game, and the latest was an actual decent performance against Arsenal at Old Trafford.
All hopes for the season now rest on the Europa League - does Amorim have the squad to win it?
Yeah, there is a lot of regional variation. Bavaria is the region most badly hit whereas where I live we have an incidence of like 4 per 100,000 and hardly any restrictions. So that may have something to do with it.
The department for health & social care said the recent increase in case demand, it turned out that around 25% of the tests were people who had no symptoms at all and shouldn't be coming forward for a test. Which would correlate with the re-opening of schools, the current cold going around educational places (my sister in laws school had two classes sent home because of the cold, thinking it was covid), and people getting the test just so they declare they're negative and carry on with their daily life.
There's no issue with the reagent availability, it's all down to lab processing at the minute.
I must admit I'm curious about that 25% business. I'd love to see the details of that survey they did. Given how testing has been done in the high risk areas (with walk in centres in some locations), employer requested testing (for key workers) and the ones who tried for a test repeatedly over several days before finally getting one - a lot of the people being tested are expected to be asymptomatic, or to have what are now the wrong symptoms for eligibility for testing (given that "fatigue" was part of the list mentioned by Hancock earlier in the summer, back when they had more tests available and fewer takers). There are also NHS requested tests for those planned to go into hospital for surgery or other treatment.
I just wonder if the survey methodology actually took all those "others" out of the survey group before giving us the headline figure. Maybe I'm being cynical, but having looked at the government's use of dubious statistical headlines, covid or otherwise, I'd still like to know more about exactly how that 25% was derived. Are we talking about 25% of available tests, or 25% of Pillar2, or 25% of Pillar2 minus those tests requested by employers, walk-in centres, health or home care provider requests, and those who had symptoms on the day they requested a test.
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According to this, the majority of people in the UK aren't fearful of catching the virus, and it's been that way since June. The most fearful point was at the end of March, just following lockdown, where 61% were worried about catching the virus. At that point only 7 of the 29 countries were less fearful. At this point only 5 countries are less fearful than the UK. That tracks pretty well with the fact that up until August, the UK were in the bottom quintile of countries for wearing masks, washing their hands more frequently, avoiding physical contact etc.
Germany were also in the bottom quintile on all of these, but given the comparative risk level in the two countries, the UK are proportionately much less fearful. Probably the best evidence of the lack of fear is this:
If people were overly scared, the majority of people who have symptoms and the majority of people that told by the NHS they were at high risk of contracting the virus would have self-isolated. That's what you would expect if they were appropriately scared, never mind too scared.
One thing to bare in mind is how many of those tests are done on unique people.
They've stopped putting the numbers out now I think but when they did, it was like 2 tests per person or at a 3 for 2 ratio.
Faintly recall one day, 150k tests were done and only 60k ish people were tested.
Have to double check but its definetly miles off the total number of tests.
Would be interested to hear how they got that data?
Totally agree. Although I don't think there was enough time for Labour to turn the ship around between December and March.
The Tories have had 10 years to do so.
Possibly but then I guess you would have to ask why didn't they didn't implement the recommendations.
good post. It really seem like no one gives a shit anymore over here.
Oh yeah agree with you here.
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Some major themes from my time doing general practice in inner city practice with 10s of thousands of patients
People haven't a clue regarding government guidelines, the vast majority do not. I mean perhaps its the ones just calling in but there are some from a high SE background as well with high paying jobs and they are not clued in regarding testing criteria. They think anything "mild" isn't covid. I think there's just something about being told a virus that'll kill your grandma people don't see themselves having if it its "just a cough". Ironically we are getting many denying coughs or temperatures (when they initially tell us they do) when subsequently tell them about isolation. Serious comms issue I think.
Also flu vaccine demand is fairly unprecedented in terms of enquiries which is good news, I think uptake will be decent. Logistically challenging though with social restrictions in place and also supply chain issues.
Winter is not going to be easy.
People haven't a clue regarding government guidelines, the vast majority do not. I mean perhaps its the ones just calling in but there are some from a high SE background as well with high paying jobs and they are not clued in regarding testing criteria. They think anything "mild" isn't covid. I think there's just something about being told a virus that'll kill your grandma people don't see themselves having if it its "just a cough". Ironically we are getting many denying coughs or temperatures (when they initially tell us they do) when subsequently tell them about isolation. Serious comms issue I think.
Also flu vaccine demand is fairly unprecedented in terms of enquiries which is good news, I think uptake will be decent. Logistically challenging though with social restrictions in place and also supply chain issues.
Winter is not going to be easy.
I posted about this yesterday. Primary care in Ireland has been told to expect two thirds the quantity of vaccine they got for the last season, one month later than usual. Because of a “global supply shortage”. Any signs of that with you guys?
Re the confusion over testing and isolation that’s a huge problem for everyone. Especially with kids. Irish health service tried to release some clarifying guidance to stop people demanding tests for kids with minor URTIs but with such a range of symptoms talked about in the media (including asymptomatic cases) you can’t blame people for assuming every virus is covid. The symptom I find hardest to interpret is a sore throat. Should every family that has a kid with a sore throat (and no other signs/symptoms) all be self-isolating until the kid is completely symptom free?
This is what I assumed but the positive test rate is 2.5% as previously stated which is higher certainly than Germany. I'd like to know the positive test % in comparative countries like Austria, Ireland, Netherlands and Portugal. Or the positive test rate in Germany vs UK at the end of August when case numbers were similar.
Whilst 2.5% is apparently quite high surely counter-intuitively we want a high % as every positive test provides additional data as to community transmission whereas every negative test tells us... Very little.
That's a good point in fairness. If the UK are focusing a higher proportion of tests on the same "at risk" people then it's arguable that "depriving" the general population of tests in order for care homes, hospital staff and vulnerable people to have regular tests might be an understandable compromise.
Especially if only 20% of people are isolating... Why "waste" testing capacity testing a fit and healthy millennial like me who has a high chance to ignore the result anyway; when you could focus it on the key workers and vulnerable people who will take a positive result more seriously. Certainly if tests are "free" anyway.
I suppose the counter point would be the wider a variety of people are tested the more you can understand and prevent community transmission.
I wonder whether something like a small £5 delivery charge for a test for those not at risk / aren't key workers could assist somewhat. Something that simple might repress asymptomatic demand.
Would probably be politically suicidal though.
You can follow the link, it's actually quite interesting. it's all self-reported behaviour, from a survey of over 30k people, so likely to be representative.
Stats on individuals being tested are released weekly. https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...virus-testing-uk-10-september-to-16-september
That shows that around 3% of people tested were positive.
Absolutely not. Positive cases do give us vital information so the primary goal of testing is to miss as few as possible. The higher the positivity % the more cases are being missed. And missed cases are petrol on the fire.
Flu vaccines here will be started next Monday - before Lloyds and Boots used to offer it to under 65s if requested by patients but now will no longer do that. Presently its over 65s and the unders with certain medical conditions
Was a huge shit show last year where there was about a month where we ran out for nearly two to three weeks due to supply issues, NHS England are confident stocks will last but others less so. You'd think they'd have known the importance to get their stocks in order given that primary care physicians were warning of implications of a shortage for ages.
There's more here if you fancy a read. No idea where the issue is with regards to supply chain
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54273172
Kids have the nasal flu vaccine. Here that's for 2-17 year olds or 6 months to 2 years with certain medical conditions. That one the uptake is never really that great. Biggest issue being lack of marketing resources compared to adult flu vaccine and the fact that it also has pork gelatine which Public Health England has told Muslim GPs who've campaigned for alternatives on behalf of members of their communities (also vegetarian, vegan, Jewish members) that its use as a preservative/stabiliser means an alternative may never come. We'll see how the uptake will be more that this year.
For us over here its any temp 37.8 or above, new persistent cough or worsening of previous cough, lack of smell or taste. Sore throat in of itself isn't an indication for covid test/isolation over here.
Annoyingly over here 111 gives inconsistent advice regarding URTI sx from the parents we've spoken to who're implying that any temperature attributed to ear infection or URTI need not get tested or isolate but that's explicitly not the case according to government guidelines. So we're having temps attributed to barn door cellulitis or urinary tract infection who we are advising to get tested and isolate due to there being documented cases of concomitant covid (relatively asymptomatic) with other presentations
Cheers. Just reading now. n = 2000 with 21 surveys over a few months. So fairly comprehensive at first glance, depending on how they found the subjects.
UK 6874 cases and 34 deaths
Unfortunately it is inevitable - it's doubling every 8 days at the moment so we could be there within next 3 weeks.
My mum works at a school with 21 people off. She’s above 60. Her TA went off today and they’ve been sharing stuff all week. Confirmed case for the ta. She’s not allowed to isolate.
New restrictions for Leeds, Blackpool, Stockport and Wigan
"People who live in these areas will not be allowed to gather in a private dwelling or garden with any other household unless in a support bubble.
"People from anywhere else will also not be allowed to gather with another household in a private dwelling or garden in these areas."
Looking like it. Spain averaging 100 deaths a day so we'll catch up soon.
Today's 34 deaths excludes Scotland due to power outage up there
"People who live in these areas will not be allowed to gather in a private dwelling or garden with any other household unless in a support bubble.
"People from anywhere else will also not be allowed to gather with another household in a private dwelling or garden in these areas."
Looking like it. Spain averaging 100 deaths a day so we'll catch up soon.
Today's 34 deaths excludes Scotland due to power outage up there
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Jaysus. Sorry to hear it. Purely based on personal experience it does seem like there’s a hell of a lot of non-covid viruses doing the rounds. They’re dropping like flies at my kid’s school but no positive tests yet. Hopefully just more of the same at your mum’s school.
EDIT. Never mind. Didn’t notice TA was confirmed case. FFS.
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Then she surely needs to get her union rep on that! If she's been in close contact continually then she needs to the isolating and tested, no matter the current staffing shortages.
they'll keep going up because we are testing more and more. remember there are thousands of asymptomatic people in the positive test and the death counts.
We've always been testing more and more nearly week on week and our numbers didn't keep going up did they?
Why is she not allowed to isolate?
My ex girlfriends brother died recently of Covid. Age 31. No underlying health conditions.
Certainly a stark reminder.
Certainly a stark reminder.
the guidelines for schools is within two metres next to someone for 15 minutes
I’m not sure dying fits the definition of asymptomatic.
Why would she not be allowed to isolate? Sorry if this sounds like a pedantic question, but I am not too versed in the current UK situation.
With this many people off, if everyone who had come into contacts with the infected people were isolating - the school would close.
Yeah I don't get that. I can't think of many jobs at all where that would be a justifyable approach. In fact I can't think of any.
Surely that means they close the school then?
I mean I think keeping schools open is vital but I wouldn't want to be responsible for a teacher or staff member dying because I told people to come in who I knew were in direct contact ith others while they had covid. Clsing the school for a week or two or limiting students wouldn't ruin anyone's life.
If schools were gonna close if this happened mate, there’d be plenty of closed schools already.
So, two school employees could have sex for ten minutes on property one day, you know, basic mish on a desk. Happens all the time in the movies. One of the participants tests positive for the virus later that day. Under UK guidelines, the other participant is not required to get tested or allowed to get tested? Makes total sense.
We're at the point now where the economic effects/consequences of people being at home instead of in workplaces can't really be hidden or avoided anymore, and as the government has already made clear,, it isn't possible to just prop up millions of jobs with support schemes indefinitely. At this point they have to pick and choose where they want to provide lifelines and in a few month time they wont even be able to do that. That increases the strain on the welfare system and unfortunately that's where this government is going to let people down horribly and create a world of suffering. They didn't even want to give food to poor chldren remember.
A lot of people who have "enjoyed" (idiots) the past 5-6 months are now facing another 6 months of isolation from their workplace, except at a point where the cracks of home working are really going to appear, and will be worsened by the colder weather, lack of daylight hours, job losses, thin wearing patience from employers and colleagues, etc...and unfortunately with the case numbers as they are it's going to swing back very quickly to home working being a safety requirement rather than being a convenience/cost saving. It wont be long as well I think until general socialising will also be curbed significantly.
Said it a coule of months ago and still think it's true but a lot of the people who were enjoying their time since March were being extremely short sited/selfish and not opening up their eyes to what was going on or what they could have been doing to help. This country has too many people in it willing to ignore the bigger picture for marginal self convenience, unfortunately, but I suspect the next 4-6 months wont be very convenient for most people and will be unbearable for many unless the less unfortunate ones start actually looking out for neighbours, colleagues, etc. It's easy to blame the government but you have to remember they are a product of the people who voted for them and a lot of them frankly are as bad.
Infection rate wise I just don't see how we're going to do much to even slow things down when people can still go on nights out and visit each other's homes as normal. Quieter offices and earlier closing hours are really marginal differences compared to the effects of mixing social circles in indoor environments, no extra protective barriers at all for higher risk people, etc. I just don't really understand what we are doing. It will be a couple of weeks at most I reckon before the goalposts have to be moved again, and by that point we'll have been costing people their lives again. I do think it's important to maintain a quality of life but life wont be much fun for anyone if we end up in full lockdown for months in the middle of winter. Most people who suffer with social isolation also aren't exactly in a position where the are able to invite 5 people round their house every day to help keep them company.
I'm feeling quite bleak about it all :/ ...main hope I can see that would make a big difference is if a lot more people really band together to help each other through it this time, rather than ignoring everything outside of their bubble. We'll get trough it either way but things like this will make it so much easier for the people who will find it the hardest.
A lot of people who have "enjoyed" (idiots) the past 5-6 months are now facing another 6 months of isolation from their workplace, except at a point where the cracks of home working are really going to appear, and will be worsened by the colder weather, lack of daylight hours, job losses, thin wearing patience from employers and colleagues, etc...and unfortunately with the case numbers as they are it's going to swing back very quickly to home working being a safety requirement rather than being a convenience/cost saving. It wont be long as well I think until general socialising will also be curbed significantly.
Said it a coule of months ago and still think it's true but a lot of the people who were enjoying their time since March were being extremely short sited/selfish and not opening up their eyes to what was going on or what they could have been doing to help. This country has too many people in it willing to ignore the bigger picture for marginal self convenience, unfortunately, but I suspect the next 4-6 months wont be very convenient for most people and will be unbearable for many unless the less unfortunate ones start actually looking out for neighbours, colleagues, etc. It's easy to blame the government but you have to remember they are a product of the people who voted for them and a lot of them frankly are as bad.
Infection rate wise I just don't see how we're going to do much to even slow things down when people can still go on nights out and visit each other's homes as normal. Quieter offices and earlier closing hours are really marginal differences compared to the effects of mixing social circles in indoor environments, no extra protective barriers at all for higher risk people, etc. I just don't really understand what we are doing. It will be a couple of weeks at most I reckon before the goalposts have to be moved again, and by that point we'll have been costing people their lives again. I do think it's important to maintain a quality of life but life wont be much fun for anyone if we end up in full lockdown for months in the middle of winter. Most people who suffer with social isolation also aren't exactly in a position where the are able to invite 5 people round their house every day to help keep them company.
I'm feeling quite bleak about it all :/ ...main hope I can see that would make a big difference is if a lot more people really band together to help each other through it this time, rather than ignoring everything outside of their bubble. We'll get trough it either way but things like this will make it so much easier for the people who will find it the hardest.
Round here there is one closed and several others have told some classes to stay home for 2 weeks or are teaching some students remotely so they can keep at risk people at home wheh nthey aren't sure its safe.
I think schools need to stay open, but there has to be a line somehwere and there are solutions and work arounds that don't force a potentially very vulnerable to put their life at risk.
Keep in mind that isolation/quarantine is to protect other people from her, if she's deemed a close contact. If she's not viewed as close enough to quarantine now, but she develops any symptoms then she still stays home and orders a test. Daily temperature checks these days should probably be part of her routine there, just in case.
Or she asks the TA to tell the contact tracers that your mum is a close contact and get the generic advice that "same classroom = ok" converted into personalized service.
France 15797 cases and 150 deaths