SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Genuine question - At what point will UK fecking close schools and colleges for a couple weeks to alleviate new cases?

We've literally seen where this goes, and we've been shown exactly how to deal with it. Yet, our Government sits and does very little.

When does this rudimentary, yet very important step happen?

Are we waiting until a specific school / college has a few positives - by which time we fecking know that for 2 weeks the virus has been allowed to spread?

Why not pull the fecking trigger on this? It won't effect their precious economy and it will save lives and alleviate stress in Healthcare.
 
duffer said:
They definitely don't know that, the guys who went to the gym don't even know.

They're just not taking it as something to be concerned about.

They have stopped all non-essential meetings and travel.
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I mean the gym and PHE. They will have the gym access records and know who was in there on the same day/s. They'd be contacting them directly if they thought there was a risk.
 
duffer said:
So, two people on my office (including the guy next to me) were in a gym on Saturday that has since closed for deep cleaning because a member has got the virus (and had been using the gym).

They've not even offered them home working (which is fairly straightforward in my job, laptop and a phone is all we need).

Am I overreacting by being annoyed at this?
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You're not overreacting. That's ridiculous and I'd just walk out of there if it was me.
 
11101 said:
I mean the gym and PHE. They will have the gym access records and know who was in there on the same day/s. They'd be contacting them directly if they thought there was a risk.
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The gym did contact all members directly to say why it was closing and that what they should do if they had any symptoms. The email didn't give details on what days the infected person was there, only that they were an active member.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Genuine question - At what point will UK fecking close schools and colleges for a couple weeks to alleviate new cases?

We've literally seen where this goes, and we've been shown exactly how to deal with it. Yet, our Government sits and does very little.

When does this rudimentary, yet very important step happen?

Are we waiting until a specific school / college has a few positives - by which time we fecking know that for 2 weeks the virus has been allowed to spread?

Why not pull the fecking trigger on this? It won't effect their precious economy and it will save lives and alleviate stress in Healthcare.
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I think their thinking behind it comes down to how many lives are lost due to the economy collapsing.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Genuine question - At what point will UK fecking close schools and colleges for a couple weeks to alleviate new cases?

We've literally seen where this goes, and we've been shown exactly how to deal with it. Yet, our Government sits and does very little.

When does this rudimentary, yet very important step happen?

Are we waiting until a specific school / college has a few positives - by which time we fecking know that for 2 weeks the virus has been allowed to spread?

Why not pull the fecking trigger on this? It won't effect their precious economy and it will save lives and alleviate stress in Healthcare.
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The calculation is something like this...

1. What is the maximum length of time we can close key institutions (schools, universities, offices etc) before we have to reopen them to avoid complete economic collapse and/or civil unrest?

2. When is the optimum time to enact those closures for maximum effect to stop the health service collapsing?

Let's say the answer to Q1 is 2 months. If you can shut things down for a maximum of 2 months - when do you do it?
 
MikeUpNorth said:
The calculation is something like this...

1. What is the maximum length of time we can close key institutions (schools, universities, offices etc) before we have to reopen them to avoid complete economic collapse and/or civil unrest?

2. When is the optimum time to enact those closures for maximum effect to stop the health service collapsing?

Let's say the answer to Q1 is 2 months. If you can shut things down for a maximum of 2 months - when do you do it?
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I suspect they will be looking at Easter and thinking if they can close down schools say 2 weeks before Easter they can call it a 2 week closure knowing in reality they get 4 weeks with the possibility to extend if needed

The key will be if they think they can delay it that long and what they do about all the parents etc who won't be able to go to work due to childcare issues as well as other gatherings (conferences, sporting music and other events... Large offices... Even public transit systems like the tube)

Hopefully whatever decision will be based on the evidence from experts

Not gove / Cummings saying meh we have had enough of experts (and basing deductions on the political optics)
 
It feels like our companies and government want to wait until it's a big problem, rather than pre-empting it due to the precious economy, annoying.

Meanwhile the first person in our company has come down with it.
 
My family aren't taking this seriously at all, including my 73 year old grandmother who has hypertension and heart problems. I fear the worst and they're pretty much laughing at me calling me hysterical.
 
Cobra meeting today, i'm hoping working from home is discussed and the government recommends employers allow this for anyone who can.
 
sun_tzu said:
I suspect they will be looking at Easter and thinking if they can close down schools say 2 weeks before Easter they can call it a 2 week closure knowing in reality they get 4 weeks with the possibility to extend if needed

The key will be if they think they can delay it that long and what they do about all the parents etc who won't be able to go to work due to childcare issues as well as other gatherings (conferences, sporting music and other events... Large offices... Even public transit systems like the tube)

Hopefully whatever decision will be based on the evidence from experts

Not gove / Cummings saying meh we have had enough of experts (and basing deductions on the political optics)
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Sounds right.

I'd certainly ban all non-economic social gatherings immediately. Churches, mosques, community groups, amateur sports teams etc. Just shut them down until further notice. Seems like an easy win.
 
I've had a minor chest infection for a few week that's more or less gone but a bit of a cough remains. Suddenly feel very guilty for coughing at work
 
stepic said:
Cobra meeting today, i'm hoping working from home is discussed and the government recommends employers allow this for anyone who can.
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Me too. I have asthma (albeit in a good state, I run and play football and go to the gym and need an inhaler maybe once a week/fortnight) and working with 3000 other people in a building in Croydon is doing my head in. So many colds and bugs going round, don't really want to be in anymore.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Sounds right.

I'd certainly ban all non-economic social gatherings immediately. Churches, mosques, community groups, amateur sports teams etc. Just shut them down until further notice. Seems like an easy win.
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You'd imagine that's a no-brainer.
 
I may be ignorant here but even if you ban all the travel for the next two weeks, close all businesses and ask anyone to stay home, is it realistic for the virus to go away completely? Or would it just limit the cases for time being but we'd be back to square one once people started going out again.
 
The Firestarter said:
Less danger for you being ran over by a car.
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You need to think in societal and systemic terms rather than risk to any one individual. The risk this virus poses to the functioning of our health, economic and social systems is pretty stark.
 
Sarni said:
I may be ignorant here but even if you ban all the travel for the next two weeks, close all businesses and ask anyone to stay home, is it realistic for the virus to go away completely? Or would it just limit the cases for time being but we'd be back to square one once people started going out again.
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I think the virus has a two week incubation period but not necessarily a two week lifespan.

It would massively slow things down but shutting everything down like that for two weeks is practically impossible.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
My family aren't taking this seriously at all, including my 73 year old grandmother who has hypertension and heart problems. I fear the worst and they're pretty much laughing at me calling me hysterical.
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My mum is ill right now and with a cough, she is mid 60s with diabetes. My dad is late 60s with diabetes, hypertension and heart disease. They won't even call 111 for advice!
 
Sarni said:
I may be ignorant here but even if you ban all the travel for the next two weeks, close all businesses and ask anyone to stay home, is it realistic for the virus to go away completely? Or would it just limit the cases for time being but we'd be back to square one once people started going out again.
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The aim is to bring the reproduction number under 1, so each person gives it to less than 1 person, and it eventually dies out. Closing things for 2 weeks can bring the number under 1 but it will take longer than that for it to die out. If you remove all restrictions after 2 weeks it will just start spreading again. The Italian quarantine will be 6 weeks long by April a lot of people expect it to be extended even further in some places.
 
This virus is absolutely ravaging Europe's big countries at the moment. Jesus.

For some reason we are still, touch wood, relatively ok. Maybe because we are an island away from the mainland?
 
spiriticon said:
This virus is absolutely ravaging Europe's big countries at the moment. Jesus.

For some reason we are still, touch wood, relatively ok. Maybe because we are an island away from the mainland?
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Not sure mate. Be interesting to see how We compare for testing to the likes of Germany though who have grown in cases the last few days. Think the UK have around 23k tests done.
 
I guess Madrid will be the next major European city to be locked down.

Madrid, Spain's most affected region, has more than doubled in the last 24 hours. There are now 436 cases in the Spanish capital, up from 202 on Sunday.
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11101 said:
The aim is to bring the reproduction number under 1, so each person gives it to less than 1 person, and it eventually dies out. Closing things for 2 weeks can bring the number under 1 but it will take longer than that for it to die out. If you remove all restrictions after 2 weeks it will just start spreading again. The Italian quarantine will be 6 weeks long by April a lot of people expect it to be extended even further in some places.
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Yeah that's what I thought so. So we would essentially need to close the whole world for 6-8 weeks to have a realistic chance of killing the virus, and even then it's not really certain considering that we don't exactly know this virus that well at this point. Obviously slowing things down would have a huge benefit but my concern is it'd only delay the inevitable spread. On the other hand it'd allow some extra time for health system to get up to speed and for scientists to work on a cure, so not exactly useless.
 
Sarni said:
I may be ignorant here but even if you ban all the travel for the next two weeks, close all businesses and ask anyone to stay home, is it realistic for the virus to go away completely? Or would it just limit the cases for time being but we'd be back to square one once people started going out again.
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You will slow it down massively, the pace at which this virus spreads and the relatively long incubation period is what is making it so dangerous. The virus is also contagious possibly up to 2 days before symptoms show. IF we were properly locked down for 2 weeks its possible all carries could be found and quarantined until the virus was killed off, problem is only a TOTAL lockdown would allow this, and that wont happen.
 
InLevyITrust said:
You will slow it down massively, the pace at which this virus spreads and the relatively long incubation period is what is making it so dangerous. The virus is also contagious possibly up to 2 days before symptoms show. IF we were properly locked down for 2 weeks its possible all carries could be found and quarantined until the virus was killed off, problem is only a TOTAL lockdown would allow this, and that wont happen.
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It wouldn't be a two week lockdown though. I think you'd need a month, because of the viruses long incubation period.

2 week lockdown to identify all cases, a further two weeks to identify all those who were in immediate contact. Then you further isolate those who still have it for as long as necessary.
 
Skills said:
It wouldn't be a two week lockdown though. I think you'd need a month, because of the viruses long incubation period.

2 week lockdown to identify all cases, a further two weeks to identify all those who were in immediate contact. Then you further isolate those who still have it for as long as necessary.
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And all that while not allowing people to meet, at all basically. Everyone has to stay home.
 
Sarni said:
And all that while not allowing people to meet, at all basically. Everyone has to stay home.
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Yeah it's a tough one because even if it works but you fail to then contain/identify one carrier you're back at square 1.

It will be interesting to see how China pull it off now, when they start to get back to normal life in Wuhan.
 
Sarni said:
Yeah that's what I thought so. So we would essentially need to close the whole world for 6-8 weeks to have a realistic chance of killing the virus, and even then it's not really certain considering that we don't exactly know this virus that well at this point. Obviously slowing things down would have a huge benefit but my concern is it'd only delay the inevitable spread. On the other hand it'd allow some extra time for health system to get up to speed and for scientists to work on a cure, so not exactly useless.
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The green plot below is what we are hoping to achieve. Flattening the curve reduces the impact on health services and pushes us into summer when weather conditions will help, even if heat doesn't kill it people will be outdoors more and less likely to spread it. Totally eliminating it in 2 weeks or 1 month is unrealistic.

coronavirus-graph--tojpeg_1583515963554_x2.jpg
 
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Skills said:
It wouldn't be a two week lockdown though. I think you'd need a month, because of the viruses long incubation period.

2 week lockdown to identify all cases, a further two weeks to identify all those who were in immediate contact. Then you further isolate those who still have it for as long as necessary.
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If you looked down for 2 weeks or say 3, you should be able to identify those who are infected and isolate them for treatment. The virus free could simply go about their normal lives. I agree the longer the more sure you would be, its an idealistic option but not one I think would be viably possible even in one country never mind world wide.
 
it's insane that the Irish government still haven't cancelled the fecking Paddy's Day parade. How inept can you be?
 
senorgregster said:
Oil futures are down as much as 25% for tomorrow. Everyone is clearly spooked.
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I committed to forward buying a good chunk of our annual dollar requirements last week... Might have jumped the gun a bit. It seems the time of the US Dollar being a safe haven might be at an end, its the Euro investors are piling into atm.
 
11101 said:
The green plot below is what we are hoping to achieve. Flattening the curve reduces the impact on health services and pushes us into summer when weather conditions will help, even if heat doesn't kill it people will be outdoors more and less likely to spread it. Totally eliminating it in 2 weeks or 1 month is unrealistic.

coronavirus-graph--tojpeg_1583515963554_x2.jpg
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Think this is the point some are missing. Containment is gone, now it's just a matter of trying to control the impact to the health service.

I'm sure PHE must have set a cut off point where controls are necessary to manage capacity. It probably needs to spread more before such measures make sense as we're still able to cope.

Closing schools only following incidents is less politically damaging so i think they'll do that. Also means you can slow the spread without shutting everything down at once which isn't needed if you want it to spread in a controlled fashion.
 
My team is capable of working from home and most of us do a few days a week but for some reason they won't give us the go ahead to work from home everyday until this passes
 
Based Adnan said:
My team is capable of working from home and most of us do a few days a week but for some reason they won't give us the go ahead to work from home everyday until this passes
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Same here mate. I project manage a fairly senior level project in the company I work for - 80% of my work and meetings are dial ins/web ex's anyway. As a company though they are being fairly pro active - just my boss who doesn't seem to grasp that this could be horrible going forwards.

One of the "just get on with it" types.
 
Smores said:
I've had a minor chest infection for a few week that's more or less gone but a bit of a cough remains. Suddenly feel very guilty for coughing at work
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:lol::lol:

Had similar situation in pharmacy Saturday. Just had a dry throat and had to cough to clear it a bit and started getting stares!
 
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