Not all of them are soldiers in the ground forces that can be deployed on the front lines in Ukraine. A big chunk of that 1 million belongs to the navy, aerospace forces and the strategic rocket forces. All of those are more advanced braches that require specialized personel so I would expect that the majority of the active personal are employed within those.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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That is true. But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.
If it meaningfully affected public opinion there then maybe someone would care, but that's obviously not going to happen.
That's already happened in Crimea, and Ukraine already launched at Belgorod, so it's too late to try to draw a red line there.
if they start reporting attacks within russia, even if no one beyond russia buys it, you don't think it alters things? putin has said "this land is russian". what happens when the land he's told russians is russian comes under sustained attack, which will be the effect now, from nato funded forces? it makes escalation seem more dangerous from where i'm sitting because it can happen much quicker. it is a red line, whether or not anyone decides to respect it is another thing. but to ignore it outright brings its own risks and that's what the effect of it is. it's not entirely a bluff imo. it's the confirmation of what some here said a long time ago. that if and when nato support began to tell, russia would move to leverage its nuclear and other small scale wmd arsenal.
Again, claim to whom? To the international community? No one would bat an eyelid. To Russians themselves? He and his propagandists literally have been saying that Russia is at war with NATO, not with Ukraine, for months.
He does not need any pretext. On Russian TV the war is described as a war with NATO for months since it became obvious that no quick victory can be achieved and it is too shameful to admit that "mighty Russian army" is struggling against Ukraine who is "not even a real state". Crimea and Belgirod were already shelled, possibly with western weaponry. He repeatedly threatened that the supply of western weapons to Ukraine is the act of aggression against Russia and so on. The whole "not giving Putin casus belli" needs to stop. If he wants to escalate and there is no immediate pretext, he will invent it. Otherwise you are ending up bowing to his demands. And that is exactly what he wants. Threaten, put some show of force - everyone is scared and he gets what he wants without much risk and outlay. That was his initial plan in February and that is why he put an amount of troops that were completely insufficient and ill-prepared to conquer Ukraine in a real war when a military actually resists (as opposed to most of it surrendering without fight).
It gives Putin the opportunity, as with Crimea
Ok. But they have deliberately rushed to annex these new regions because of the progress Ukraine has been making.
All I am saying is that it is a sound strategy.
No, because it hasn't made any difference so far when Ukraine attacked targets on Crimea and in/near Belgorod (especially the latter is undoubtedly Russian territory)
this is true. the one effect, then, is putin saying "we consider this to be the line". that might well be ignored. i don't know, in truth, but that's definitely why he did it when he did it. a statement of his intent basically.
He's already claiming it and the weaponry is already killing Russian soldiers. Ukraine have also attacked Crimea and Russian Black sea fleet so, this basically changes nothing. I think the biggest worry is Russia mobilizing Ukrainians from the annexed teritory.
Putin dosen't need any oppotunities and if he needs one he will just make one up anyway.
I do not agree that it is sound. You can see the logic, yes - but it is entirely a bet on the other side being scared and backing down and then you are "fixing the gains". But if Ukraine and the West call him bluff and he was not really prepared to escalate and was just bluffing - it leaves him in a precarious position.
Mobilization is unpopular, takes time and not particularly effective. Military setback and losing some occupied territories is one thing - but annexation means he us now demonstably unable to properly defend a "constitutionally Russian" territory (prorussian population in the likes of Donetsk was actually were hopeful that once they are "officially Russia" would mean they they are a lot safer and protected. And Nationalists won't be satisfied either). Plus sanctions and even China/India won't be too happy, so cannot imagine that it brings him the desired standing in the world.
And finally, before that Crimea was a special case and even in the negative Scenario for Russia they could argue "we wanted only it really all the other we were just worried about Russian speakers but not annexed them etc etc"- actually Putin said it himself in 2014 (of course he was lying but still), and Russia was likely to have some "consolation prize" e.g. by keeping Crimea (even Zelenskiy was open to leaving Crimea under de-facto Russian control for at least 15 years under peace settlement at the start of the war - not any more). But now Crimea lost this status, all land that Russia still controls in Ukraine is same and they might end up losing them all.
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So with Lyman surrounded what are the chances for that front to collapse?
They don't even control all of the land in those regions, kinda undermines the idea of drawing a line there, so I don't see how it's a sound strategy. What changes from this strategy, how will things go differently?
Putin has already claimed NATO is fighting with Ukraine on the ground, I don't see how that helps him. He might even drop tactical nukes on Ukraine soldiers now, trying to create a new red line, but that wouldn't make annexation a good strategy imho. He could draw any arbitrary line on the map then threaten nukes, I don't see how the annexation helps achieve anything that occupation didn't.
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Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not Russian soldiers in (what he is claiming) as Russia.
Putin is itching for a fight with NATO, what he refers to as the West. It is behind this whole mess. And because he is doing so badly conventionally, upping the stakes will be his reaction.
There is also a possibility that he's not an Amazing Master Strategist, mobilisation decision is unpopular domestically and he's trying to use this for domestic propaganda purposes.
We already know that nobody outside of Russia changed their behavior because of those gunpoint referendums.
I really don't think he is itching for a fight with NATO, if he were he'd have invaded Estonia or somewhere rather than Ukraine. He attacked Ukraine because he thought they couldn't defend themselves and he's a bully.
All he's itching for is to blame any failures on NATO rather than the country he's been shit talking for years, and to somehow work out a way to claim a win. Which of course is very unlikely at this point. And if he were to use a nuke or something that might well end up even worse than just getting his people killed by the thousands and failing to "defend" their acquired territory. What reason would anyone have to not invade Russia proper if he were already using nukes? What reason would the world have not to assassinate him and his ministers?
Putin tends to look more effective when he manages to convince certain European leaders he is someone they can do business with, who they can convince to be more friendly through negotiations and some degree of appeasement. That is obviously no longer possible (despite Macron & Scholz’s best attempts), and leaders are finally beginning to realize the best way to deal with him is to gradually weaken him until he falls from within.
The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:
Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that there are also reports that Russian command has also already left Kreminna so they don't look confident that they can hold it. Considering that they also send massive reinforcements towards Lyman it's likely that there are indeed not very much strong units left in that area so a collapse is possible.
He's been claiming Crimea is part of Russia since 2014 and Russian soldiers have died there. There have even been causalities in Belgorod which is legit Russian territory. Also, why would Putin be itching for a fight with NATO when he's struggling to even fight Ukraine unless he wants to use Nukes and take everyone down with him but you can't just grant a tyrant whatever he wants just out of fear of nuclear Armageddon because in that case we should also be surrendering south Korea to Kim jong un.
The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:
Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.
Thanks- sorry I missed the earlier message. This reminds me a little of the Allies Hundred Days in 1918. Attack one area and start rolling it up. When that front stabilises move focus and keep the defenders constantly on the move.
Earlier it looked like there was still fighting in Lyman, now the Russians believe that they have completely lost it, so it was news now
And it might be a good comparison. At least it looks like in that area every successful Ukrainian offense does lead to a massive loss of heavy equipment for the Russians (which can partly be taken into service by Ukraine). This makes it more and more difficult for the Russians to resist further attacks
No he is not itching for a fight with nato, because even in the deranged state he is in, he knows that will lead to the complete demilitarisation of Russia. Even if someone had any doubts about that 6 months ago, it is completely obvious now.
kashmir was my thought.
Exactly. Not condemning the Russian behaviour doesn't necessarily mean supporting Russia in this current war, but can also simply be to leave options open to do something similar.
I won't post them here but there are a lot of videos/pictures emerging showing the aftermath of the Lyman battle and the Russian retreat. Lots and lots of dead Russian bodies and AFU estimate that there are around 900 dead Russians only on the road out of Lyman. PoWs and casualties from the actual city and it's surroundings aren't even included in that. Lots of destroyed vehicles as well. Reminds me a bit of the "Highway of Death" in Iraq 1991.
Putin is basically a one trick pony, he’s like a poker player who aggressively bluffs and his opposition know it’s likely a bluff but don’t want to take the risk themselves. NATO until now has basically not done anything to curb his aggression but that changed with the reaction to this invasion. NATO adapted their approach but Putin hasn’t, he’s not some great strategist (in fact it looks like he’s terrible judging by reports he was directly working with the military) this is all he has, escalation after escalation until he wins or loses. He will lose if the West keeps backing Ukraine.
Just like most dictators his years of power has made him narcisstic and he's surrounded himself with yes men. It's why someone who's never in touch with reality can win the war in the long run.
For the glory of mother Russia, they have accomplished a grand redeployment to the rear!
I thought the genstaff are not the ones calling the shots any longer...
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What happened in Dagestan, are the protests still continuing?