Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Usmanov estate has been raided in Germany, seems to have been flouting the sanctions.
 
I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
 
botond said:
I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
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It's probably the only option he has to change the course of the war that he's losing. Is it going to be successful? Not likely. Is it going to cost tens of thousands of additional lives gone? Most certainly, but he doesn't care about those, be it the lives of Ukrainians, civilian and military, or the lives of his own constituents.

He's backed himself into a corner, betting everything on this war, he can't afford to lose it and throwing tons of meat onto a meat grinder in the hope of breaking it is a tactic that was historically successful for Soviet Union during his beloved World War II.
 
It'll be months before concripts are ready for the battlefield surely? Unless Putin has gone fully lambs to the slaughter. I'd assume this is Putin onboarding next spring's military in the hope that Ukraine is unable to reinforce as fully as Russia after winter. It would be entirely in-line with Putin's thinking to rely on winter to come to Russia's aid once again. In reality, he's chucking numbers at a problem he's unable to contend with through technology, intelligence and knowhow.
 
Imagine if what Russia was saying was actually true and it was us being lied to all along
 
Bepi said:
His so called Anti-Western friends told him to stop this non-sensical war no later than three days ago, China still needs the West (and a sane world) to trade, India is booming and do not want to waste their window, Lavrov just entered the US to attend UN meeting, his pre-recorded call-to-the-nation has been abrutly postponed… mmh, I may well be a fool tomorrow but Mr P seems nearer to being done than us just now.
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I am a fool indeed… they really aired his pre-recorded escalatory message. Mind, he knows he is being seen as a wan*er right now, and a pariah without any support: even real wan*ers like Lukashenko and Kadyrov cannot believe he is doing this for real. He is not even buying time because there is no way any mobilisation can impact this war in the sense he likes: his army, his hierarchy, his packages have been found out as a corrupt, inept, gigantic fraud.

This only leads to a quick endgame, imho, which is as necessary as scary: can he really throw nukes?
 
Putin basically showing the whole world just how reluctant he is to go all-out in this war.
 
TheGame said:
Can't believe other senior Russians are standing by and watching this unfold and are not collectively moving against Putin. Its madness.
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I expect they're talking about it, he's killed a lot of important people this year.
 
While Iranian women stood up and have taken it to the streets, Russian men are hiding from the mobilization:

 
Bepi said:
I am a fool indeed… they really aired his pre-recorded escalatory message. Mind, he knows he is being seen as a wan*er right now, and a pariah without any support: even real wan*ers like Lukashenko and Kadyrov cannot believe he is doing this for real. He is not even buying time because there is no way any mobilisation can impact this war in the sense he likes: his army, his hierarchy, his packages have been found out as a corrupt, inept, gigantic fraud.

This only leads to a quick endgame, imho, which is as necessary as scary: can he really throw nukes?
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Nukes will be met by more nukes and its curtains for everyone in Russia. The world will not just sit and watch.
 
botond said:
I don't understand how the mobilisation would help their case and fix their problems . Morale is low as it is and winter is coming . Logistics are a mess , they don't seem to be able to train and supply not even the existing conscripts .
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Russia has won wars before by just throwing numbers at them.
 
2cents said:
Putin basically showing the whole world just how reluctant he is to go all-out in this war.
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How is that the case? He's only escalating further, and he can't do much more than this, even with a full-scale war. He simply can't recruit people.
 
sun_tzu said:
I don't think I like where this is going
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum

They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia

A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen

Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down
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It’s posturing on his part. He’s puffed his tail feathers out now to attempt to cut the counter offensives legs from under them, hoping leaders will be thinking like you say. The reality is the second those areas do come under attack all that’ll happen is the Russian army will turn and run.
 
Rajma said:
Lenin Avenue?
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There's Leninsky prospect but no one would call it "улица Ленина" (which is a street that most of the post-Soviet cities and towns have, unlike Moscow). Just don't willingly believe every random thing that you find on the internet.

Same goes for the second tweet — so far I haven't seen any credible reports about the supposed ban and I've seen multiple official rebuttals from different avia companies. Can it happen? Sure. But random twitter accounts reposting any rumor that they come across isn't a good source of information.

edit: they don't need to restrict ticket sales since there are barely any left and the ones that are left cost an arm and a leg (in Shoigu's military compensations :)).
 
Bosnian_fan said:
How is that the case? He's only escalating further, and he can't do much more than this, even with a full-scale war. He simply can't recruit people.
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By all accounts, no. They don't have enough fully functional equipment to arm the existing force, let alone an additional 300k, but that doesn't mean that they can't give them WW2 rifles and send them to march on Kyiv p.2
 


Basically how the mobilization of proud Russian patriots will be.

I like the analog some said on Twitter, that we'll see if Iranian women have more balls than young Russian men do.
 
phelans shorts said:
It’s posturing on his part. He’s puffed his tail feathers out now to attempt to cut the counter offensives legs from under them, hoping leaders will be thinking like you say. The reality is the second those areas do come under attack all that’ll happen is the Russian army will turn and run.
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That's about as likely as putin straight away throwing a nuke on new York...

The reality is it's an escalation and it makes finding an off ramp more difficult.

Most conflicts end with some form of negotiated settlement and let's be honest the only ways this one does not involve the collapse of either Ukraine or Russia and right now both those seem improbable

I'm doing quite a bit of work in Ukraine at the moment and I don't see this as a good omen ... It looks to me like an occupying force for the long term and potentially a long running regional conflict with the constant potential to flair up and further escalate which is not good imo
 
harms said:
There's Leninsky prospect but no one would call it "улица Ленина" (which is a street that most of the post-Soviet cities and towns have, unlike Moscow). Just don't willingly believe every random thing that you find on the internet.

Same goes for the second tweet — so far I haven't seen any credible reports about the supposed ban and I've seen multiple official rebuttals from different avia companies. Can it happen? Sure. But random twitter accounts reposting any rumor that they come across isn't a good source of information.

edit: they don't need to restrict ticket sales since there are barely any left and the ones that are left cost an arm and a leg (in Shoigu's military compensations :)).
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I don’t believe all those tweets, I’m just taking part in information warfare for a long time now because Putin is at war with the west.
 
Ukraine must not allow themselves to have some sort of Abkhazia, South Osettia, Transnistria or Republic of Srpska type of pseudorepublic. Wipe them pretty much all out.
 
Bosnian_fan said:
How is that the case? He's only escalating further, and he can't do much more than this, even with a full-scale war. He simply can't recruit people.
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Well most analysts seem to think the only real shot he has at turning the tide is a grand restructuring of the Russian economy and full-scale mobilization to support the war effort. He clearly is extremely reluctant, or perhaps simply unable to, take those steps, half-measures notwithstanding.
 
If it is a Russian victory or nuclear war, we know what it has to be. Worrying about it won’t do anything about it, so live your best lives in the meantime. The West can’t allow nuclear madmen to carve out the world in their terms.
 
I can see this as a beginning of that Call of Duty mission where soldiers are plucked straight into action, one gets a rifle, the other gets the bullets.
 
TMDaines said:
The West can’t allow nuclear madmen to carve out the world in their terms.
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I think they already have.
There have been numerous opportunities for the West to 'stop the nuclear threat' becoming the preserve of madmen, from Patton's idea of continuing 'the push East' at the end of WW2, to Regan's 'Star War's' dominance, in the later part of the 20th Century, but it never happened; now we have a seemingly madman poised with his finger over the button. Diplomacy on a level we have never seen before will be required and the US needs to lead, imaginatively as well as with 'guarded' aggression... maybe Biden will turn out not to be 'sleepy Joe' after all
 
The cost of Ukrainian military victories will always be further escalation by Putin/Russia. To be brutally honest, he's clearly running out of options. The fact he's gone "partial" mobilisation is an absolute bottle job to start with - shows he can't even commit to a proper one because I imagine he fears an internal backlash. Also Navalny makes a cracking point re: recruiting prisoners - they're the last people you want fighting in the army. A military of drunk petty criminals is going to need insane numbers to overcome a professionally trained NATO equipped one.

I don't know what's going to happen next, but post Feb 24 he launched missiles on every city in Ukraine and a wide scale invasion. In all honesty I can't see Russia doing much more now than potentially reinforcing their gains in the Donbass and being purely defensive, while they try and replenish their losses (manpower is one thing, but the armour and ammunition already lost will require a significant bribe to China to replenish quickly).

All in all, Putin is making this announcement from a position of weakness - the exact opposite to his Feb 24 announcement when he was on the front foot and had the whole world guessing what he was going to do. I hope the end is nigh for him.
 
TMDaines said:
If it is a Russian victory or nuclear war, we know what it has to be. Worrying about it won’t do anything about it, so live your best lives in the meantime. The West can’t allow nuclear madmen to carve out the world in their terms.
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I knew I should have moved to Fiji when I had the chance!! Living an hour from London isn't exactly filling me with confidence given the latest developments
 
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