Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Beans]

“When the Soviet system collapsed, the then KGB basically had a meeting where they discussed whether they should just release the nukes onto the world, not in terms of launch but sharing, so that then the United States would have to spend the next century dealing with it. They ultimately determined that though they had lost, and that was sad for them, that they didn’t want to be the end of the human condition, and so they kept the nukes bottled up the best they could. Putin was part of the organization that made that decision.”

Peter Zeihan in one of his videos. Thought that was interesting.

 

[Water Melon]

“When the Soviet system collapsed, the then KGB basically had a meeting where they discussed whether they should just release the nukes onto the world, not in terms of launch but sharing, so that then the United States would have to spend the next century dealing with it. They ultimately determined that though they had lost, and that was sad for them, that they didn’t want to be the end of the human condition, and so they kept the nukes bottled up the best they could. Putin was part of the organization that made that decision.”

Peter Zeihan in one of his videos. Thought that was interesting.

Watch Navalny's documentary about Putin. The cnut was really well down the KGB ladder in early 90's to be taking part in any decision regarding nukes of USSR.

 

[Beans]

Watch Navalny's documentary about Putin. The cnut was really well down the KGB ladder in early 90's to be taking part in any decision regarding nukes of USSR.

Yes, but it also shows the "Russian view" of such a situation, but it's just interesting, not definitive at all.

Putin hasn't shown the signs of a world ending maniac. He is a gambler, threats cost him nothing, and if it moves the needle, great.

The Russian government already made threats and didn't carry them out during this invasion.

 

[Bepi]

His so called Anti-Western friends told him to stop this non-sensical war no later than three days ago, China still needs the West (and a sane world) to trade, India is booming and do not want to waste their window, Lavrov just entered the US to attend UN meeting, his pre-recorded call-to-the-nation has been abrutly postponed… mmh, I may well be a fool tomorrow but Mr P seems nearer to being done than us just now.

 

[utdalltheway]

This waiting for Russia’s next move; I wonder if it was like this during the phoney war, the period between Hitler invading Poland until he steamed through Holland & Belgium. Was there hope then too that Hitler might stop?

 

[Krakenzero]

What does Putin "win" by using nukes? Is there any military goal that using nukes would accomplish, other than causing fear (which can and has been done without nukes)?

On the flip side, they lose their main deterrent, any support or empathy they could have left (it's kind of difficult to disguise a nuke as a false flag operation from Ukraine) and the few economic partners they have left. And that's not even considering the possibility of retaliation.

I'm not saying it is impossible that happens, it's just counterintuitive and unlikely.

 

[Water Melon]

Yes, but it also shows the "Russian view" of such a situation, but it's just interesting, not definitive at all.

Putin hasn't shown the signs of a world ending maniac. He is a gambler, threats cost him nothing, and if it moves the needle, great.

The Russian government already made threats and didn't carry them out during this invasion.

Agreed.

 

[Beans]

Pardon the completely inappropriate music




"Not phosphorus: Russia uses 9M22S incendiary projectiles in Ukraine"

https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/not-phosphorus-russia-uses-9m22s-incendiary-projectiles-in-ukraine/

 

[Beans]

 

[B20]

If I die in a nuclear holocaust I'll make sure to think "B20 was right."

Or do you not think Putin will use nukes and you're just arguing the details?

I think it is at the least a fair bit further down the road than where we are now

 

[Beans]

I think it is at the least a fair bit further down the road than where we are now

I’ll repeat the question, sir. Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons, gun to your head.

 

[tomaldinho1]

Seeing reports it’s partial mobilisation on Twitter

 

[dove]

 

[B20]

I’ll repeat the question, sir. Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons, gun to your head.

I think there are scenarios where he would. And those scenarios are on the radar of possible outcomes in all this.

Still think the likeliest outcome is no nukes.

 

[VorZakone]

So what does this mean exactly in practice?

 

[Maagge]

@harms I hope you and your loved ones can avoid being called up.
Do you have any idea how these news are received in Russia? Oh and has Putin called it a war yet? "Special military operation" doesn't sound like something you need the reservists for.

 

[LARulz]

Putin using nuclear wars because he is losing (debateable) in Ukraine? I mean I think some of you guys are either scaredy cats or overestimating Putin's craziness.

I don't think he ever could. I very much doubt he has a direct button to himself just in his bedroom. There would need to be approvals from others, even at a basic level of aiming the bomb somewhere. Someone else will know and all will stop him. Even if he is on a suicide mission, the rest aren't

 

[Gehrman]

Our Russian bros on here are about to be sent to the front lines for the motherland.

Paxi

 

[dove]

Yep, the war is going so well that the next logical step is to call a mobilisation of course.

 

[christy87]

I don't think he ever could. I very much doubt he has a direct button to himself just in his bedroom. There would need to be approvals from others, even at a basic level of aiming the bomb somewhere. Someone else will know and all will stop him. Even if he is on a suicide mission, the rest aren't

That's what will more than likely stop him from pressing the button, someone who has kids and wants to see them grow up and also has a gun near putin, because he would know what MAD is.

 

[Scorpy]

Yep, the war is going so well that the next logical step is to call a mobilisation of course.

 

[McGrathsipan]

No one is sure that nuclear weapons are off the table, but what can one do about it? A Russian hypersonic or ballistic nuclear missile can reach just about anywhere in Europe. They could nuke the UK for any stupid reason they can make up, and it doesn't have to be Ukraine. The only thing I'm 99% confident about is that we (the 'West') would never be the first to press the button.

If Russia wants a nuclear war, they will have one. The reason for starting one is really quite irrelevant.

I totally agree with your sentiment that we shouldn't let ourselves be slaves to nuclear fear.

If Russia nuke Ukraine then what ?

Is there going to be a direct and instant nuke response on Russia?
Are the targets agreed ? Moscow?
Where is it launched from?
Has all of this been played out in Nato ?
Would that be the start of Russia going all in then being obliterated?
What would China do?

Shit makes you wonder

 

[VorZakone]

 

[sun_tzu]

I don't think I like where this is going
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum

They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia

A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen

Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down

 

[Real Name]

Wha does partial mobilisation means?

 

[dove]

I don't think I like where this is going
Large mobilisation and presumably movement of troops and equipment through the winter whilst they have a referendum

They then declare the region's part of Russia and say any attack on those regions is a direct attack on Russia

A lot of countries won't recognise the referendum and certainly Ukraine won't therefore attacks happen

Then... Well it's hard to see either side backing down

But the attacks have already been happening on the official Russian territory in Belgorod region and self claimed territory of Crimea, and Russia did nothing. They, as always, are trying to scare off the west and making us reduce our support for Ukraine. Hope we don't fall for it.

 

[Gehrman]

Wha does partial mobilisation means?

I think stuff like people who have already served in the army are conscripted.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[NicolaSacco]

But the attacks have already been happening on the official Russian territory in Belgorod region and self claimed territory of Crimea, and Russia did nothing. They, as always, are trying to scare off the west and making us reduce our support for Ukraine. Hope we don't fall for it.

Putin’s MO is that he always wants to look like he’s prepared to escalate further and further. Further than the West would be willing to go. He’s spent a lot of time building up that image, but that’s all it is really. A projection that he needs the West to believe to dissuade them from standing up to him. I don’t buy it at all. I think he’s a rational person, under all that facade, and I think he knows in a full scale war or a nuclear exchange, that he would come off worst.

 

[harms]

@harms I hope you and your loved ones can avoid being called up.
Do you have any idea how these news are received in Russia? Oh and has Putin called it a war yet? "Special military operation" doesn't sound like something you need the reservists for.

I'm not eligible for conscription in any scenario, thankfully.

It's still a "special military operation" in his words, I've looked it up specifically. It's hard to get a clear picture on how people reacted to that from my perspective, I'm not following any pro-Putin/government media directly and nor do I regularly talk with people who support the war. We'll get a better understanding at the evening, I imagine, so far I can only hope that this will prove to be a final mistake that cripples the regime. They want to call up around 300k if Shoigu is to be believed, surely it has to provoke a counterreaction!

 

[harms]

Putin using nuclear wars because he is losing (debateable) in Ukraine? I mean I think some of you guys are either scaredy cats or overestimating Putin's craziness.

I don't believe that he will personally but we're certainly way beyond the point where we could've assumed that Putin won't do something because it's not rational.

 

[TwoSheds]

I'm not eligible for conscription in any scenario, thankfully.

It's still a "special military operation" in his words, I've looked it up specifically. It's hard to get a clear picture on how people reacted to that from my perspective, I'm not following any pro-Putin/government media directly and nor do I regularly talk with people who support the war. We'll get a better understanding at the evening, I imagine, so far I can only hope that this will prove to be a final mistake that cripples the regime. They want to call up around 300k if Shoigu is to be believed, surely it has to provoke a counterreaction!

How can there possibly be 300k veterans to call up? Are they going to be raiding the old folks homes?

 

[harms]

Yep, the war is going so well that the next logical step is to call a mobilisation of course.

He's slightly mistaken in numbers.

By Shoigu's estimation Russia have lost ~5900 soldiers killed (and 90% of wounded are already healed & back in action), Ukraine have lost ~61k killed and ~49k wounded. And everything goes according to plan on the battlefield. So we need to call up 300k more conscripts. Logic!

 

[VorZakone]

 

[harms]

How can there possibly be 300k veterans to call up? Are they going to be raiding the old folks homes?

I think the average bi-annual wave of conscriptions calls up around 150k. They serve 1 year (it was 2 years originally but they've cut the time of service in half) and get back to their homes, listed as potential reserves. Again, I don't know the exact numbers but there should be a lot of those reserves available in theory. But I doubt that they'd be happy to get called up + it's not like they've got any combat experience during their service, you get almost no relevant training aside from sweeping up the platz, smuggling phones and cigarettes through security and making tanks out of snow, which should come in handy in the upcoming winter military campaign.

 

[TwoSheds]

I think the average bi-annual wave of conscriptions calls up around 150k. They serve 1 year (it was 2 years originally but they've cut the time of service in half) and get back to their homes, listed as potential reserves. Again, I don't know the exact numbers but there should be a lot of those reserves available in theory. But I doubt that they'd be happy to get called up + it's not like they've got any combat experience during their service, you get almost no relevant training aside from sweeping up the platz, smuggling phones and cigarettes through security and making tanks out of snow, which should come in handy in the upcoming winter military campaign.

Oh I see, so effectively they didn't serve a 2nd year and in exchange they get to go and freeze to death in Ukraine? Not far off a general mobilisation at this point then...

 

[The Purley King]

What does Putin "win" by using nukes? Is there any military goal that using nukes would accomplish, other than causing fear (which can and has been done without nukes)?

On the flip side, they lose their main deterrent, any support or empathy they could have left (it's kind of difficult to disguise a nuke as a false flag operation from Ukraine) and the few economic partners they have left. And that's not even considering the possibility of retaliation.

I'm not saying it is impossible that happens, it's just counterintuitive and unlikely.

he doesn’t win, he just ensures everyone loses as badly as he does.
The equivalent of flipping over the risk board when you have one solitary army remaining in Kamchatka and your opponent has every other territory.

 

[TheGame]

Can't believe other senior Russians are standing by and watching this unfold and are not collectively moving against Putin. Its madness.

 

[The Purley King]

Putin’s MO is that he always wants to look like he’s prepared to escalate further and further. Further than the West would be willing to go. He’s spent a lot of time building up that image, but that’s all it is really………..

Is he really kaiser soze though?

 

[harms]

Oh I see, so effectively they didn't serve a 2nd year and in exchange they get to go and freeze to death in Ukraine? Not far off a general mobilisation at this point then...

I think those who served for 2 years (so, those who were conscripted before) 2008 are also available for conscription, so no.