That's a sociological map, it's not propaganda.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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They've weathered the storm and what is said here by you was said three years ago. It never happened and it isn't going to happen.
The peace deal is what people need. feck the war off altogether. Obviously, I want the best possible outcome for all people. Hoping for the best but this is the only way this monstrosity comes to an end.
Its wont be an actual peace deal, Putin will go for more of Ukraine later.
They had cash 3 years ago, now they don't. Its not that difficult once you understand the concept of time.
Wow, it turns on Zelenskyy IS considering a deal after all!
With the Ivory Coast.
With the Ivory Coast.
I don't see it. What he has now, might even be too much, depending on the Pro-Russian concentration (sociologically), but more of Ukraine? How much more? A Vietnam is what would become of that and it already has been a kind of Vietnam just in terms of the damage done to people and infrastructure.
Can you cite that? Everything I've read and listened to is to the contrary in economic growth terms. Has to have cost them a lot of money (no idea how much, but many billions) so I'm not dismissing the point, I just want a better breakdown of it.
As per wikipedia...So who knows if it is true
Economy Grew 3.6% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024
Again, who knows if it is true
We can discuss what is real, what is propaganda and many many many other aspects of the economy that shows as that the Russian Economy is not peachy. But I don't think that Russia is at the verge of collapse. Nor economically, nor militarily and as some pro russian said that Ukraine would fold very quick, many experts in these thread said that Russia would not be able to last 3-6 months.
And here we are. I don't think a war of attrition will work for Ukraine. Or Europe makes decisive steps on material and financing or This will go indefinitely for years. EU troops on the ground would end the conflict pretty fast but no EU country will do that for sensible reasons to its population
Many experts here said Russia would not be able to last 3-6 months? I don't really recall that.
I don't see how else to interpret his proposed peackeeping plan. He'll continue to condemn Trump and the negotiation process, they all will, but they are aligning themselves toward accepting it.
How? There's no way America would uphold article 5 if the EU put troops on the ground. That just leaves more people in a WW1 (weirdly so) styled war where Russia would almost certainly use "tactical" nuclear weapons knowing full well that the EU is not going to risk its existence for Ukraine. The US absolutely isn't.
But I think the rest of your post is accurate though there is the ambiguity that you say regarding precision in figures. The World Bank and CIA (check wiki or sources) bear out the same statistics more or less.
This bluesky account publishes monthly updates from data releases by the Russian ministry of finance. This is basically their savings account they built up ready for this war. They will need to keep something in it for various securities/guarantees, which is why I say its effectively empty, or soon will be.
If you or anyone is genuinely interested, she posts ridiculously long threads analysing the bond markets and other various parts of the Russian economy from data published in Russia. Its just not very well indexed...
Thanks for the reference.
The propaganda part is that Russian speaking means wanting to be part of Russia. Which is just wrong. Which means that this map is a fact but also completely irrelevant here.
You should talk with my Ukrainian neighbour about how wrong that is, nut probably you wouldn't have a common language to talk in (as he only speaks Russian and German).
while I certainly agree Ukraine is at their weakest point right now politically, and militarily without further aid will drastically suffer, the if the eu is able to bridge some of the gap Russia will still bleed financially and there will be a point to which they can’t sustain it surely.
I hope Zelensky doesn’t sign the mineral deals and tells the US to feck off. They are taking advantage for their own interests. After slagging off Zelensky, I hope he doesn’t give them what they want. They will never support Ukraine over Russia anyway.
Not saying they want to be part of Russia, just pointing out that identity and language go together very often when considering the "ethnic" composition of a land which has been or is being partitioned. If your neighbor is Ukrainian, he'd understand the language of "partition" and "civil war" (Ireland) as well as anti-colonialism so I'm sure we'd get on well enough (if Ukrainian).
Oh I know how article 5 goes. I also believe (and I say believe because I have 0 knowledge on real capacities) that if the EU countries would go in a conventional war against russia, would win. Also, Russia doctrine for nukes is for the motherland, and then would be the gamble on if Russia would REALLY consider the conquered land as Russia so in their doctrine or not. Putin menace with nuclear attacks many times if the West would supply certain types of arms and after planes and so on. And here we are
It’s probably true on paper (maybe not the exact number, but the economic growth thing) but it needs to be perceived in context — it’s mostly growing because of how active the military and military-adjacent sectors are… so these are the funds that don’t go back into the real economy, they get blown up, most often literally.
I doubt that @Simbo bases his posts on actual data or reliable analysis though. I appreciate the sentiment but it reads like… wishful thinking to put it mildly. Don’t get me wrong, Russia is already fecked, short-term, mid-term and especially long-term. But it’s not going to disintegrate immediately and it still has more resources than Ukraine if the latter loses the external support.
Hearing a tankie in real life is quite something.
I've heard the usual stuff in internet circles:
About how NATO expansion is why Russia was justified to start this war (even though NATO didn't expand for 15 years until after Russia invaded Ukraine making Sweden and Finland sign up so either Putin is a moron for causing that or you are for believing it)
That Zelensky is just a puppet who does what America says (clearly disproven this week because if Ukraine's fight was just an American proxy war and not a fight for Ukrainian interests out of Ukraine's own agency he'd not be standing up to Trump)
Giving aid to Ukraine will set off WW3 (heard this for three years and conveniently it's never WW3 to these people when North Korea sends weapons AND manpower to aid Russia)
They're very annoying on the internet because you respond to them and they just double down. In person you bring it up and they're pretty well cowering looking at each other for help. Because their viewpoint is illogical. The Reform UK kind of people who have sympathy for Putin do it because they see him as a bastion of anti-woke anti-globalism they wish to emulate. Which ironically is itself becoming a global movement as all the right-wing fringe parties across Europe are tagging along with each other and the world's richest man. Tankies just seem to hate the fact Ukraine didn't just give up and surrender immediately because they support Russia's invasion deep down.
It was near the entrance to Victoria Gardens. I remember seeing anti-vax people protest around the station near the park a few years ago so maybe they just are a convenient place for people to yell weird stuff at passers by.
I've heard the usual stuff in internet circles:
About how NATO expansion is why Russia was justified to start this war (even though NATO didn't expand for 15 years until after Russia invaded Ukraine making Sweden and Finland sign up so either Putin is a moron for causing that or you are for believing it)
That Zelensky is just a puppet who does what America says (clearly disproven this week because if Ukraine's fight was just an American proxy war and not a fight for Ukrainian interests out of Ukraine's own agency he'd not be standing up to Trump)
Giving aid to Ukraine will set off WW3 (heard this for three years and conveniently it's never WW3 to these people when North Korea sends weapons AND manpower to aid Russia)
They're very annoying on the internet because you respond to them and they just double down. In person you bring it up and they're pretty well cowering looking at each other for help. Because their viewpoint is illogical. The Reform UK kind of people who have sympathy for Putin do it because they see him as a bastion of anti-woke anti-globalism they wish to emulate. Which ironically is itself becoming a global movement as all the right-wing fringe parties across Europe are tagging along with each other and the world's richest man. Tankies just seem to hate the fact Ukraine didn't just give up and surrender immediately because they support Russia's invasion deep down.
It was near the entrance to Victoria Gardens. I remember seeing anti-vax people protest around the station near the park a few years ago so maybe they just are a convenient place for people to yell weird stuff at passers by.
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You don't really need to speak to the neighbour, all you need to know is history. ie: The Holodomor
Yes, that is why I said that there are other aspects of the economy that shows that the Russian economy is not great. In the end this macro numbers only tells a global result that is caused by many factors as you know much better than me. We had been said before than Russia, militarily or/and economically, is going to the shitters, even if @VorZakone doesn't remember. Probably he doesn't remember that we had this conversation 1 or 2 years back.
I recognize that "many" is an exaggeration and "experts" as well. Dr Mike Martin and Kofman said it in the past (talking by memory) and others.
But Russia still a massive country, with a massive population, with a massive amount of natural resources, with a massive army even in decay compared with the superpowers and with a massive dick as president that this war supposes his own existence
It should go without saying that a random Electrical/Power Systems Engineer & Internationally Recognized Queen of Anglo-Saxonia on BlueSky shouldn't be your go-to source in serious discussions but the first thing that you (and she by the looks of it although she's not quite as radical in her conclusions from the little that I've seen) assume incorrectly is that NWF equates to all of Russia's savings.
There's certainly enough problems in Russia's economics already that if you state them alone, it'll look like the end of the world. That's mostly what she does. It's indicative of a massive crisis that's going to be extremely costly to Russia in the long run (it's hard to imagine how costly exactly but it'll most likely be the worst economical crisis of post-Soviet times, probably by some margin and that's saying something). But it doesn't mean that Russia's going to get bankrupt next week or next month.
Yougov released a survey yesterday showing almost 60% of people support the UK sending troops in a peacekeeping force if the war ends. As you two say that will be fundamentally different than the UK on its own and more importantly it is conditional on a settlement. No one will be fighting. The logistics and reality of how it works can be debated but it's not an idea that has not been tried to maintain a settlement and especially if Russia's demand that Ukraine gets no chance at NATO admission is conceded then would that be an acceptable security guarantee for Ukraine.
I'm pretty suspicious of that Stats for Leftists account now because they tweeted out this week this post which seems pretty weird giving what is happening. No one has declared war on Russia. If it's in response to Starmer's peacekeeping proposal it's absolutely absurd since that idea is prefaced on the war ending. And when asked who they're directing it just straight up lying that people in the replies were. No one was and it's backwards logic anyway as their tweet is posted before anyone can think of a reply.
Have I said on here it's going to immediately disintegrate? I dunno, that's probably just the vibe I'm giving off as I do have a feeling something catastrophic could happen by the end of this year. They can only plug the holes for so long but when they run out of plugs, the whole thing sinks at once.
Data can't predict how long the economy can hold out of course. Money can always be printed or sucked up from the people and corporations in every corner of the country, they have options still if it can be managed. Its a careful balancing act of inflation and how much they can piss off various people. Extremely complicated I'm sure, maybe it can survive a few years, I'm beginning to see people who follow this stuff make loose predictions however, whereas previously they'd stay well clear of that. Also the evident desperation being projected through Trump... Does make me wonder.
Rumours are sometimes all that are needed however. That talk of restricting bank withdrawals doesn't seem to be going away for some reason...
Keep reading, I don't know if she's some CIA op in disguise or just ADHD obsession on full display, but if you know of a better source on the internet analysing Russian economics, let me know, we certainly can't rely on any journalist to cover it properly. Its the most important indicator of when this war ends, more so than US relations to Ukraine imo. She covers a wide range of topics.
It's funny how you have to point this out on an Irish football forum, where we speak English, that also includes Scottish (like myself) and Welsh people who also speak English as their first language.
And the USA which would be an even better comparison as a huge breakaway colony.
Assuming a Ukrainian to support being Russian because he speaks Russan is more like assuming an English to support being American.
I really hope that our politicians won't be that dump to agree on this.
Russia gets the land and control, the US gets the resources while Europe will have all the burden and costs to provide troops and ensure the cease fire?
Dream on Donald. You will never get this. A big feck you to the US!
I fecking hate this timeline.
What's going on here then? Media reporting that Ukraine are about to sign a deal giving the US half of the income from natural resources like minerals, gas, oil - on top of a share of income from ports. And they aren't going to get any security guarantees in return. What kind of threats have been levied here? What could they possibly have said that would make Ukraine accept that deal? Must be more than "we'll no longer support you", as this seems far, far worse than that. This would be the end of Ukraine in the not so distant future.
The 50% was not agreed by Ukraine. I'm not sure we know much of the new details yet.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...f-critical-minerals-pact?srnd=homepage-europe
I think the threat is they'll cut off starlink. Wouldn't be surprised they start sanctions against Ukraine.