It would be interesting to know how long it would take from a declaration of mobilisation to an actual increase of armed troops on the battlefield. Surely it will be a few months?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I'd agree with this. There is no way for Putin to win this at this point.
1. Do nothing and have Ukraine gradually erode Russian gains to pre-Feb levels, or possibly worse, reclaim all of Donbas and begin looking at Crirmea.
2. Launch a series of sham referendums in Kherson and other controlled areas as a pretext to justify a full mobilization. This won't work either since time is not on Putin's side and anyone mobilized (whether prisoners or ordinary Russians) won't be any better than the cannon fodder Putin has already introduced into war over the past 7 months.
3. Use tactical nukes, thermobaric weapons, and/or strike nuclear plants to create a catastrophe within Ukraine. This won't work either because it would escalate into NATO involvment inside Ukraine, which would effectively crush any Russian operations in country.
In summary: Putin is fecked and is likely going down Ceaușescu style.
Those who are completing their conscript service this year could be available in a much shorter time. In fact they could already be moving to Ukraine right now if Putin has made the decision.
Putin, the day before: "war with Ukraine will end as soon as possible"
Maybe I'm being naive, but this could still be posturing for a peace deal. Thing is, at this point it won't work. Too much water under the bridge, and there's a reason why Peter and the Wolf ends the way it ends.
On topic, if Russia hypotetically fully mobilizes against a country that is a EU candidate, are there any implications for the rest of EU members?
Last edited:
I don't think so. While it's important for Russia internally if they call it a war or not, if they fully mobilize or not, the rest of the world sees it as a war and it won't make a difference if Russia is sending kontraktniki or conscripts into this war.Putin, the day before: "war with Ukraine will end as soon as possible"
Maybe I'm being naive, but this could still be posturing for a peace deal. Thing is, at this point it won't work. Too much water under the bridge, and there's a reason why Peter and the Wolf ends the way it ends.
On topic, if Russia hypotetically fully mobilizes against a country that is a EU candidate, are there any implications for the rest of EU members?
Time to ramp up support for Ukraine before winter kicks in. Unless you think there is a material risk of Russia dropping nukes (I don’t, unless Ukraine starts attacking Russia itself), then we are facing a paper tiger here.
Wow
Are other sources reporting this?
that should cover some of the war reparations afterwards too.
The guy comes across as a shit Zhirinovsky impersonator.
Sphere of influence works two ways though. Ukraine wanted to be the in the grouping influenced by the US and EU, two economic superpowers and one military one. Russia overplayed their hand thinking they could stop it. In truth war came because Russia spectacularly misjudged the geopolitical realities and massively overestimated its own power.
Our Russian bros on here are about to be sent to the front lines for the motherland.
I do accept the concept that states can have there sphere of influence based on their economic or military power, that is simply a geopolitical reality. But what I don't get with Mearsheimer is why we should treat those spheres of influence as immutable? Why should the West stop at Ukraine when we included the Baltics and all other slavic states that were under Soviet influence?
People like Mearsheimer sooner or later have to realize it, just like the Russians have to as you mentioned. It's just sad that this learning process is paid for by a lot of innocent lives.
Britain only has 245 nuclear warheads, piece of piss to intercept apparently
He's basically the drunk bloke at the bar asking random people out for a fight while he can't actually stand up without the bar proping him up
You love to see it. US rubbing it's hands together knowing their weapons companies will pick up most of it
So is Putin giving an address or not tonight?
So far no reputable outlet has reported this though.
He has been kept waiting by too many political leaders lately, so he tries to restore his sense of self-worth by keeping everyone waiting now.
I wouldn't wish that on anyone, even a fool.
Potentially a very concerning escalation tonight. We are closer to a nuclear war now than since the Cuban missile crisis.
chill the feck outWhy what has happened?
Until Mr Putin makes the speech I'm a bit uneasy in criticising what might be in it. I think we have a tendency to dehumanise foreign leaders and forget that this is a person with a family and dogs. Have you even considered that he might be using this speech for something positive like announcing he's got stage 4 cancer and is dying?
Don’t get my hopes up like that…
Putin is likely late because he’s trying to determine the route to the studio without any windows. Wouldn’t want to fall out of one.
Unfortunately I am quite serious. The issue here is that Putin has nowhere to go but escalation now and if he declares this is no longer a military operation but instead a war then essentially all countries supplying weapons to Ukraine will be indirectly in a war with Russia. Not only that, given the terrible performance of the Russian military to date I fear that Putin may escalate the attack on the ground with the use of chemical and/or nuclear weapons. He is backed into a corner of his own making and if he loses this conflict his career and power in Russia is over so all bets are off.
The west need to try and give him an 'out' somehow where he can claim some sort of victory and de-escalate the situation otherwise I really do fear what will happen.
Ukraine already bombed Crimera and they consider that Russia. I wouldn’t worry buddy
Russia deciding to fire a nuclear weapon at a wester country means Putin and a number of his subordinates all agreeing that they are to essentially going to all commit suicide and take most of Russia and most western cities with them.
Its not going to happen.
Sod that. People have been banging the 'give him an out with a victory' tune for ages with the threat of escalation. He's shown repeatedly that he'll just keep coming back for more.
It's in no one's interests but his own to appease him now.
It's in no one's interests but his own to appease him now.
Yes but if Putin announces this is now a full scare war his response to situations such as this could be quite different.