I am not an expert here either but out of those 2 million or so, how many of them actually held a gun in their life? I would assume it to be an extremely small minority. I just don't see how a mobilisation consisting of complete amateurs and the ones that don't want to take any part of it and are forced to do it, would help Russia much. I think it's another threat for the west to back down but in reality most of those mobilised people sent to the war would be just a meat grinder.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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But that doesn't really work. They need to get Ukraine to back down and that's not going to happen. And the west will probably continue to send weapons to Ukraine as long as they request it.
They most likely held a gun but usually you get to shoot a couple of times during a 1-year service (those reservists are past conscripts). It's not something that is likely to change the course of the war though, as you've said, the only thing this will likely achieve is, simply, a lot more deaths from both sides (probably with way more losses on the Russian side).
I can't see how it would work either but I guess Putin is just out of options. He cannot justify deaths of over 50k people (+ feck knows how many injured) and have nothing to show for it so would rather risk the future of the entire nation to achieve his "win".
At first they would probably only use people who are currently doing their conscript service and are so to say already in the army. About 300,000 people are drafted for conscript service every year in Russia so this is still a huge pool of manpower.
I suspect so. I've long thought Ukraine, their allies, and supporters have missed a trick by not having one co-ordinated message. These things work better the simpler and shorter they are, I'd go for something like 'Return to your own borders and there will be peace'. Repeated not just by by Ukrainians, but all leaders and commentators, the same simple message, time after time.
I thought Ukraine and the west have been clear and unified in their message - the damage is done. Returning to Russia and declaring the war over is only the beginning. War crimes have taken place and Russia need to be held accountable.
Mobilising a draft would be the beginning of the end for Putin. I reckon the public backlash would be so vast it would embolden potential coup-makers to actually try and
Would there be any, though? At least in public. People usually overestimate the capability of the public who have been living in these oppressive regimes for decades and underestimate the brutalty of the regimes.
I think this would depend on how he uses any conscripts. He has been shoving prisoners straight into the front lines and this has been a disaster. IF he had any sense he would be putting conscripts into cover other regiments and freeing them up to move to Ukraine. So if your conscripted son ends up on guard duty in Novosibirsk, bored out of his brain then people will be less likely to complain.
There must be plenty of regiments of reasonably experienced troops still left within Russia...but maybe their generals are not trusted by Putin...so does he take the risk of "mobilising" these Generals or does he just throw conscripts into the meatgrinder?
The US should be shipping ATACMS missiles to Ukraine today in response to the proposed sham referenda.
I don't even see the need for such pretense, they can declare Berlin their territory the acceptance would be similar.
These referendums will change nothing on the actual war theater, the opposite actually, it will make Ukraine even more determined. As for mobilization if the dictator is going to press ahead with it, it will be all over very quickly for the regime.
Putin is attempting to end the war on terms favorable to him, which of course won't work and will only make him look worse both domestically and internationally once the Ukrainians reclaim more territory.
Also he is backing himself into a corner. If he declares something is now Russia it would be impossible or rather extremely humiliating to undeclare if he is forced to accept some peace terms without that territory which has been already reclaimed by Ukraine.
Really desperate move - get those regions to 'vote' to join Russia, declare them part of Russia like Crimea and then say we're happy to stop the war. When Ukraine refuses say there is no choice but to mobilise the armed forces as they're protecting their lands and, more worryingly, he can then use that fabricated excuse to justify the previous threat of tactical nukes if Russian lands were being attacked. He is an old man, he doesn't give a shit what the world looks like in 10 years' time, the thousands who have died are solely because of him and the oligarchs who enabled him - his legacy should be to have his name synonymous with being a war criminal and nothing else.
Oh no don't say that, a lot of Germans would be quite happy to get rid of Berlin
Nobody on the nuclear table would care what shambolic excuse he produces, every country on it wants these to remain as a forever threat but never actually used. The nuclear taboo is real and they'd want to keep it that way. The response to such usage wouldn't in the slightest depend on whether someone claims a pile of dirt is now his.
Those in Munich after they sell the real estate perhaps.Oh no don't say that, a lot of Germans would be quite happy to get rid of Berlin
Not in a "take it to the streets" way that gets you locked up. But in all the other ways for sure.
Only kim jong un has no effective limit to his power in the face of public opinion.
Putin would be dead within the week if he went nuclear.
I'm living on the exact opposite end of Germany and can say that most people I know here view Berlin just as an embarassing burden to the country and a total money waste
Back on topic: I do believe that DNR and LNR try to get into "real Russia" asap now to be protected as part of the Russian heartland and therefore cause a pretext for full mobilization in Russia.
But I somewhat doubt that this is really in Putin's interest right now. If he accepts them into Russia he has to defend them and I doubt that this is what he still wants to do with full force.
Is that for full mobilisation?
I think there are several reasons Putin won't use tactical nukes or any nukes.
1. Russia want to control Ukraine, making it radioactive would not help that effort.
2. What international support they have would dry up, outside of China. India would likely be very unhappy, Turkey too. US would likely put sanctions of China if they didn't stop all support.
3. The US will respond with proportional non-nuclear weapons, from ships or by plane. The only reason they're holding back is they don't want nukes in play. Once that line is crossed it could easily lead to NATO troops joining in to just vaporize every Russian target in Ukraine from the air and by sea.
4. Putin is a cold, calculating gangster, he likes wealth, he's a hedonist. He's been able to nuke the world for decades, but his violence had always been about increasing his power.
No, it’s introducing new punishment for those who were going to evade mobilization in any way.
So what's the point of these referendums? Wouldn't Putin be committing himself even more to this conflict?
Putin does seem to be backing himself into a corner here. Where will he draw the line?
His previous military big talk looks kind of silly now given the damage the UA is inflicting. Not only that his budget, and forces, are already depleted and lacking morale. To try and threaten NATO with anything would be suicide and he must know that.
His previous military big talk looks kind of silly now given the damage the UA is inflicting. Not only that his budget, and forces, are already depleted and lacking morale. To try and threaten NATO with anything would be suicide and he must know that.
1. I don't think he gives a shit about that.
2. I think would be quite strong. Even China would have to pull the plug on him.
3. Yeah, I think a likely outcome is Nato claiming the airspace over all ukraine and from there blowing up all russian targets inside the Ukraine.
4. His personal power is also tied into his vanity, which is greatly assailed by all this. It's possible that anything but continuous escalation is unacceptable to him in the face of possible failure.
A lot depends on how it is deployed. 3. is the response if it's at a military target. If he strikes at a civilian target, the US won't stop at the Ukrainian border.
@B20 I agree he'd (hopefully) be overthrown if he did try to use nukes. I don't think that means he won't try something if he suffers a complete defeat in this war, which doesn't seem that unlikely.
@The Firestarter I agree but would that stop him trying it. This is his last throw of the dice to secure more territory for Russia - it doesn't seem that unlikely that Ukraine reclaim it's full country including Crimea in the coming years, he would rather die than let that happen. If he does move to full mobilisation and stays in power, the amount of casualties is going to be so insanely high
@Beans sadly I don't think he cares about any of those points and is so secure in office there's a risk.
@The Firestarter I agree but would that stop him trying it. This is his last throw of the dice to secure more territory for Russia - it doesn't seem that unlikely that Ukraine reclaim it's full country including Crimea in the coming years, he would rather die than let that happen. If he does move to full mobilisation and stays in power, the amount of casualties is going to be so insanely high
@Beans sadly I don't think he cares about any of those points and is so secure in office there's a risk.
Both Putin & Shoigu are expected to give a speech later tonight, according to RBC.
Best case scenario from the ones that strike me as plausible:
- Staged referendums for joining russia happens. plot twist: They all vote for joining russia!
- Ukranian forces continue making inroads into Donbas.
- Russia declare they are being invaded. Start a draft.
- Russia continue to lose in Ukraine. Only now with much higher losses.
- Popular opinion in Russia absolutely plummets. Putin's position becomes increasingly untenable even inside Russia. People fall out of windows like never before.
- Someone (possibly plural) with the means to execute such a plan figures that if you could try for hits again Lenin, Stalin, Brezhnev and Gorbachev, why should Putin be spared?
The main problem with a mobilization as I see it is, who the hell are going to lead all these troops? All officers and NCOs are already in Ukraine and Russia doesn't train reservists officers or NCOs.
This is true, and not only who is going to lead them, who is going to arm them, get them to Ukraine, keep them supplied? If the Russians can’t supply their current army I can’t see how they can supply a larger one.
Bigger problem, who the hell is going to work in the already battered Russian economy? Transition to rationing , food stamps etc how do explain this to the people for which 99% of them don't see any bombs falling or troops invading , just a head on a screen.
Small summary: