Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
There is also the fact that the longer this war continues, there will be less and less left of Ukraine. It will take decades and decades even to get them back to where they were before the war, the 2nd poorest country in Europe.
I would love you to be right; but right now I see a more likely route to some kind of imperfect conclusion. Unless something very dramatic happens like a large scale Russian military mutiny, or a coup.
We are all just guessing here to a large extent. A total victory for Ukraine would be magnificent, but history tells us that peace treaties often involve unpopular decisions made by both sides. Anyway, here’s hoping.
Do you have a link to these reports?
It didn't take decades to get Western Europe back towhere it was after WW2. It will take time and money for sure, but if the rebuild is executed well it can happen much faster.
However if Ukraine stays the corrupt oligarchy it was before the war I guess you are right.
Great last comment, that. When asked how long the war is going to last the State Duma member replies "as long as it takes", and then starts talking about his 10 year old son, before being interrupted with "is going to get a chance to fight?"
A few on Twitter suggesting this type of conversation would have been approved in advance and represents the "controlled opposition".
Fascinating. Didn't expect to hear an actual discussion on the matter, especially with some reasonable arguments (even though the point of their discussion is inherently wrong — all of them want to defeat Ukraine).
Yeah, it wouldn't get aired without the approval from the higher-ups, those political shows aren't shown live.
It's a stressful situation, completely understandabler/Whoosh
You are underestimating nationalistic drive. Ukraine will fight as long as they need and unless they are forced by western powers they will cede nothing. The troubles in Northern Ireland continued for decades. Wars from former yugoslav republic lasted for 4-5 years. Soviets were in afghanistan for a decade before pulling out. Americans were for 20 years and the moment they bailed, talibans took power. All those conflicts are different, but show just how long people are willing to fight against real or perceived occupation.
I am sure even if western powers abandon ukraine the fight will go on. We really should prepare ourselves for the long haul.
Interesting, not sure if it’s genuine or a psyop of by Ukrainian armed forces to sow the panic amidst the counteroffensive.
Sorry, the Ukraine counter-offensive has stalled!
We have a hedgehog on the road!
Still more resistance and backbone than Putin's mercenaries.
One expert said that even if Russia had taken Kyiv in 3 days and gotten the army to stand down by forcing Zelenskiy to announce surrender, even then they didn't have enough soldiers to deal with the partisan resistance they would face, and it would be much worse than Afghanistan for Russia.
He said invasion was the end for Russia either way, as with their declining population they won't be able to field such a large and well equipped armed force in the foreseeable future.
saw a video on reddit of combat footage in what looked like a heavily shelled field area and UAF are clearing it out in close quarters. Guy with the go-pro shoots a grenade down a makeshift tunnel position and flushes out the Russians. Eventually the Russians try to sprint out and are just swiss-cheesed on exiting. You never fully appreciate the futility of war until you see something like that. The utter waste of life all for some deranged Russian lunatic fascist trying to relive an "empire".
Great to hear about the gains being made by Ukraine's counter-offensive, here's hoping their inroads continue.
Out of interest, is there any update on how Western sanctions are hitting Russia? Last I was aware, Russia was effectively manipulating their own economy/valuations in order to offset any potential nosedive, what's the situation now? And how is this impacting normal day-to-day life? Would be interesting to see the impact this is having on civilian life compared to how Russia have upset energy markets for many in Europe.
Out of interest, is there any update on how Western sanctions are hitting Russia? Last I was aware, Russia was effectively manipulating their own economy/valuations in order to offset any potential nosedive, what's the situation now? And how is this impacting normal day-to-day life? Would be interesting to see the impact this is having on civilian life compared to how Russia have upset energy markets for many in Europe.
Yale did a study on the sanctions. Here's a summary:
https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738
That study is 2 months old now - it would be interesting to know how things actually are there now, whether what was in that report has transpired or is in fact further from the reality insofar as in Russia things are much worse.
The main hit was taken by small businesses & entertainment industry. Plus there's a huge rise of unemployment in regions after the exodus of big international companies that had their production factories in Russia. Inflation grows quite quickly. The quality of products (from food to literally everything else) has dropped significantly. The whole economy is more or less isolated from the outside which allows Russia to retain a very favorable ruble price but they're not doing it by improving its value, they're doing it by restricting its trade.
The biggest issue is mid-to-long term effects on a more complicated production cycles. Every complicated machinery needs a steady supply of new details to keep up functioning and this supply is limited to say the least. The aviation have taken the hit earlier due to how closed off the market for those details are (and how important it is to prevent anything from happening — in other production you can risk it a bit more) — they are tearing down some planes to get details for other planes and this is not a sustainable strategy.
Plus Russia still gets an enormous amount of money from the export of energy sources which it uses to cover the ever-growing cracks in its economy but that input of cash is going to dry up pretty soon.
Here's a decent read that is still more or less readable if you translate it from Russian via google:
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/0...skuyu-ekonomiku-no-etogo-ne-sluchilos-pochemu
Don’t have another tweet on it but there are strong rumours “several thousand” Russian troops are negotiating for surrender in the western Kherson region.
Steady progress in the south as well.
Well that escalated quickly. Onwards and upwards!
Or downwards, geographically.
Correct.
Eastwards and southwards.
So they surrender and Ukraine takes their supplies and get stronger as they continue to liberate?
Remember those twitter accounts that 100 percent said it was impossible for Ukraine to take back what was lost and everybody took it as gospel because of a blue tick and testimonies form others who simply believed the blue tick?
Remember those twitter accounts that 100 percent said it was impossible for Ukraine to take back what was lost and everybody took it as gospel because of a blue tick and testimonies form others who simply believed the blue tick?
IndeedEastwards and southwards.
In the made up world of the special operation, of course.
They destroyed the Nazi threat and then stayed a while to ensure all was ok, then left the Ukrainians to enjoy their new freedom.
He can say whatever he wants but the population is not mentally deficient , they know full well they got their behinds kicked.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in putin's office right now. I imagine similar rants to those in that famous hitler in the bunker film.
Just like Hitler sold success to German public after Stalingrad.
Thanks both - appreciate the replies.
It's not completely surprising, but there is a sense of bewilderment around the idea that Europe was effectively offsetting Russia's daily war costs in the initial months of the conflict.
It will be interesting to see how much the Kremlin can commit to the war going forward, especially if the likes of India continue to receive Russian oil and gas at a significant discount to what European nations were paying.
Let’s hope these are the well trained, well equipped troops that were sent there to stop the Kherson counterattack. Russia can replace untrained men with other untrained men within a few weeks/months, but actual career soldiers with experience of war? That can take years, a decade even in the case of the higher up officers.
I think the issue is they’ve effectively stopped releasing any figures. Excerpt from a GIS article today:
I'd be so surprised if they have "several thousand" well trained and organised troops anywhere in Ukraine, beyond pockets of Spetsnaz. Think they fecked it early days with that Hostomel raid and the Battle of Kyiv. Lost loads of well trained marines and other experienced troops.
I dont think there is much chance of Ukraine stopping at 2014 borders but on Putin, he’s demonstrated such complete control that I have no reason to doubt he can say and get away with whatever he wants inside Russia.
I may have been pushing it by calling them well trained, well equipped. I guess I just mean if they've scooped up a few thousand people wandering the streets in the Donbas and given them a rifle and a half-day training, and it's THOSE soldiers who are negotiating a surrender, then it's still good, but not great. But if it's Russian soldiers who have done their training and have some experience of the 2014-2022 conflict then it could be a real coup and might well lead to a total collapse right down to the coast. I saw somewhere that one of the negotiations may have been about laying down weapons, so i guess either way the UAF will get a lot of weaponry for free pointing at the invaders, rather than pointing at themselves.
I'd love to have your optimism regarding the current make up of the invading army; it feels very difficult to call either way.
what will Ukraine do with Russian POWs?