Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
 
Rajma said:
Electricity is back up again too in affected regions. Hundreds of millions of US dollars that could have gone into making lives of ordinary Russians better end up causing electricity disturbances for a few hours in Ukraine.
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Yep, I agree. IF this is Russia's response to a significant collapse (obviously a massive if) then it's more indicative of their own impotence than anything else. However i suspect that there are more serious responses being planned. I might sound pessimistic but what I'm hoping for now is a Hitler 1944 style badly rushed, badly planned, poorly staffed, attack relying on non-existent armies and unrealistic supply lines. I can see that happening if Putin really has removed himself from the reality of the war, or is being deceived by his own generals, both of which seem quite possible. But i doubt knocking out a few power stations really is all Russia can muster.
 
stefan92 said:
I'm aware of the current situation, but I wonder (and I guess Kadyrow does, too) what will happen to him if Putin is gone? Would a successor keep the current arrangement ongoing, or would he (whoever he would be) see Kadyrov as a risk he should get rid off. If it's the latter I guess it would make sense for Kadyrov to be president of his own insignificant state outside Russian reach (assuming the Russian army gets heavily beaten and generally in trouble) rather than being killed for being a political risk. Bit of a "all-or-nothing" experiment for him.
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If the eventual successor is going to be more or less from the Putin's circle (I mean not someone like Navalny who would try to destroy most of the current institutions of power & rebuild them from the ground), I'd imagine that they would try & make the same deal with him. Replacing him would be a monumental task that may lead to the Third Chechen War, I'd imagine — and Kadyrov, the mindless illiterate oaf that he is, will probably see the situation similarly — he'll lose way too much if he'll try and proclaim republic's sovereignty (unless we entertain the scenario where Russia falls apart like U.S.S.R. did but I don't think that it's likely) — not just the finances but Russia will probably try to forcefully replace him in that case. Although trying to rationalize Kadyrov is a moot task, unlike Putin he isn't a smart person and neither does he have any smart people in his immediate surroundings. Plus he's horrendously impulsive.

It's really a hopeless situation where there isn't a realistic way to solve the issue without escalating it to a potential civil war, you can only prolong the status quo and hope for some Black Swan event. Who knows, maybe Ukraine will somehow play a part in his eventual demise.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
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If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?
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I think the Ukrainians would be counting on some kind of internal Russian upheaval for that scenario to play out. But it wouldn’t be unprecedented, it’s pretty much what happened to the Chinese in Vietnam in 1979.

It might also have happened in the Iran-Iraq war in 1982 if the Iranians had stopped their counter-offensive at the Iraqi frontier and agreed to a ceasefire (Iraq had initiated the war by invading Iran in 1980). Instead, they invaded Iraq and the war dragged on for another six years, ultimately producing no territorial change.

In both cases, the pre-war territorial status quo was ultimately preserved, although in the case of Iran and Iraq at least, the impact of the war on their societies and governments was immense.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
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It is the big question of this conflict. I'm guessing that the best bet is on demoralizing effect that this hypothetical win will project on Putin & Russian's internal politics. It's hard to try and to objectively predict the possibility of such scenario since I want it too happen quite desperately but if you imagine that, say, a year of this "special military operation" has gone by, Ukraine retook not only the newly-invaded territories but also took back the so-called DPR & LPR (and maybe Crimea, who knows?), while the economy is crumbling, the coffins keep on coming etc.

Otherwise, if Putin's grasp on Russia is still strong, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he backs down, he's already gone way past a point where you count your losses and retreat.
 
VorZakone said:
If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
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I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
 
calodo2003 said:
Fingers crossed…

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Yeah, uncross them. It's a sensationalized version of something that had happened a couple of days ago and it is nothing like the name of the article suggests. Municipal deputies are just about the highest in modern Russia that you can get while not being supportive of Putin (and that's going to change after this round of election that ended today, I'd imagine). But they solve issues like park benches and pedestrian crossings, calling them "Kremlin officials" is not even a stretch, it's factually wrong.
 
VorZakone said:
If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
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It really looks like they're going to push back to the 2014 borders, they're not settling for half-measures (like they probably would in the first month of the war when the peace talks were still on-going). The only compromise I can see them going for is not pushing for Crimea but that's simply because logistically retaking Crimea seems like a very improbable task. But with the things going like they're going lately...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
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UAf have demonstrated the capability to conduct large scale combined arms offensives, and that ability will only grow since the weapon deliveries will continue. So its not unrealistic to assume that they can push Russia all the way to the border. After that Russians will probably be more concerned of keeping Crimea than trying to get back into Ukraine : their capability is actually getting weaker every day. The best equipment is gone, they have to field mothballed stuff from the cold war. They can't manufacture modern units at scale because they lack the western supplied components Their ammunition is getting low - rumours of a deal with North Korea for artillery rounds stock. They are losing trained men but replacing them with conscripts or almost senior citizens.
The only thing they can realistically do is order full mobilisation. But unless they are planning to use them as a cannon fodder, they need equipment . And as we said, the stuff they are fielding rn is ancient. Also a full mobilisation basically grinds the economy to a halt , and creates very large discontent within the people. It is hard to justify if Russia itself has not been attacked. Which might be why the Ukrainians think twice before invading Crimea.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
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I really doubt they would think it is a major win given the country being destroyed, many lives lost, the armed forces being stronger now.
 
harms said:
It really looks like they're going to push back to the 2014 borders, they're not settling for half-measures (like they probably would in the first month of the war when the peace talks were still on-going). The only compromise I can see them going for is not pushing for Crimea but that's simply because logistically retaking Crimea seems like a very improbable task. But with the things going like they're going lately...
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Can Putin still sell a success to the Russian public if they're pushed back all the way to pre-invasion borders? Technically speaking...he would still control the Donbas.
 
harms said:
Yeah, uncross them. It's a sensationalized version of something that had happened a couple of days ago and it is nothing like the name of the article suggests. Municipal deputies are just about the highest in modern Russia that you can get while not being supportive of Putin (and that's going to change after this round of election that ended today, I'd imagine). But they solve issues like park benches and pedestrian crossings, calling them "Kremlin officials" is not even a stretch, it's factually wrong.
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nimic said:
0% chance.
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Well, fart.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
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You couldn’t be more wrong. I don’t know a single Ukrainian who feels that way.

Can’t believe there’s actually people still writing that areas of the Donbas have been independent since 2014. They are Russian-occupied.
 
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TMDaines said:
You couldn’t be more wrong. I don’t know a single Ukrainian who feels that way.

Can’t believe there’s actually people still writing that areas of the Donbas have been independent since 2014. They are Russian-occupied.
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Being certain you are right does not equate to being right. Have a look at some of your other posts in this thread. I’m talking about what the Ukraine govt will agree to, not what the Ukrainians you ‘know’, want. Unless you know Zelensky.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Being certain you are right does not equate to being right. Have a look at some of your other posts in this thread. I’m talking about what the Ukraine govt will agree to, not what the Ukrainians you ‘know’, want. Unless you know Zelensky.
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But if that is the feeling among the majority of Ukrainians, then Zelensky/the government would be foolhardy to go against such feelings.
 
alexthelion said:
But if that is the feeling among the majority of Ukrainians, then Zelensky/the government would be foolhardy to go against such feelings.
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I think Zelensky probably has the political capital to push things through if he thinks it's in the interests of the country. There will be a lot of Ukranians, especially ones with sons or daughters fighting, who will be desperate for this war to end.
 
Apparently Putin has canceled a meeting with his Generals following the latest setback.

According to sources, "The meeting is reportedly rescheduled as there were no avalible venues offering meeting rooms 5 or more floors above ground level, outward opening windows and concrete paved surfaces beneath."
 


Belorussians supporting Ukraine? I hadn't heard this before.
 
harms said:
It is the big question of this conflict. I'm guessing that the best bet is on demoralizing effect that this hypothetical win will project on Putin & Russian's internal politics. It's hard to try and to objectively predict the possibility of such scenario since I want it too happen quite desperately but if you imagine that, say, a year of this "special military operation" has gone by, Ukraine retook not only the newly-invaded territories but also took back the so-called DPR & LPR (and maybe Crimea, who knows?), while the economy is crumbling, the coffins keep on coming etc.

Otherwise, if Putin's grasp on Russia is still strong, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he backs down, he's already gone way past a point where you count your losses and retreat.
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What do you make the of the reports of politicians calling for Putin to be charged with treason? Are these politicians in danger or do they have any leverage to make Putin uncomfortable?
 
Dans said:


Belorussians supporting Ukraine? I hadn't heard this before.
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Neither had I. However I also read that Kadyrow (Chechen leader/dictator) is voicing his frustrations about russian tactics... Perhaps some under the russian yoke are sensing the weakness and see a chance to gain some independence?
 
ThierryFabregas said:
What do you make the of the reports of politicians calling for Putin to be charged with treason? Are these politicians in danger or do they have any leverage to make Putin uncomfortable?
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I’ve said it already - Putin has nothing to fear, those brave men (and women - edit) do (it’s been conflicting reports in whenever they all got called to police for a statement or was it just 5 of them, but the case for discreditation of elected officials (Putin) is already in motion). Hopefully they’ll just get a fine bit you never know these days.

Municipal deputies don’t hold any political power whatsoever.
 
Dans said:


Belorussians supporting Ukraine? I hadn't heard this before.
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There area number of foreign battalions fighting for Ukraine — Georgians (because of the war of 2008), Belorussians (those who fled the country after the protests of 2020), Chechens (those who still hope to create an independent state of Ichkeria) and even Russians.
 
Beans said:
Apparently Putin has canceled a meeting with his Generals following the latest setback.

According to sources, "The meeting is reportedly rescheduled as there were no avalible venues offering meeting rooms 5 or more floors above ground level, outward opening windows and concrete paved surfaces beneath."
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What sources? Do you think that Putin rents venues for those meetings on Airbnb?

edit: never mind :lol:
 
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NicolaSacco said:
I think Zelensky probably has the political capital to push things through if he thinks it's in the interests of the country. There will be a lot of Ukranians, especially ones with sons or daughters fighting, who will be desperate for this war to end.
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If he accepted such a deal, he'd be tried for treason! At the start of war, perhaps such negotiations of Ukraine ceding territory were possible. Now that they are pushing back? Regaining some territory? It's quite possible that within a year, russia will be pushed back to 2014 borders, maybe even further back. Why would Ukrainian government want such a deal? Just to stop the war? What happens in 15 years when russia comes for more? As long as western countries are on Ukrainian side, this war will keep going on. Wars like these don't last months, they last years and we all need to prepare for the long haul and support the Ukraine for as long as possible. It's in our long term interest.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Being certain you are right does not equate to being right. Have a look at some of your other posts in this thread. I’m talking about what the Ukraine govt will agree to, not what the Ukrainians you ‘know’, want. Unless you know Zelensky.
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@TMDaines point is at least backed up by sociological reports. What is your point based on?

It’s also important that Zelensky is a populist (I’m not using it as an insult) whose rating had been quite low before the war — and now, due to his actions post-invasion, it has reached its all-time high. But if he’s going to settle for the 2014 borders, which goes against his own quite open and assured statements by the way, he’s going to lose that support as quickly as he gained it.
 
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