Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
 
This is great news.
However, now comes the crunch time for putin.
Humiliated and defeated, will he just suck it up?
5 options I think.
1 suck it up
2 full mobilisation under the guise of perceived western aggression
3 nuclear
4 someone kills putin
5 he resigns

Hoping for 1,4 or 5 but they all seem somewhat unlikely…..
caveat is I don’t really have any great understanding of the situation
 
Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
In my opinion the last 6 months or so showed that Russia are not really capable of planning anything and the only reason they managed to take some land is purely because of their military superiority against Ukraine. The latest weapons provided by the west changed the game in the last couple of months, especially HIMARS. So many ammo warehouses and bases were blown up it must have hurt Russia pretty badly especially as they were running low on everything for some time already. Russia's loses were never sustainable in the long run, 50k or so dead is insane number. Safe to assume that at least that or most likely more are injured/captured too. They simply don't have enough resources to fully control the massive frontline so once you break through the first line of defence, you can pretty much slice it for 10s of kilometers.
 
The sensible thing for the Russians now would be to pull from the south and fortify Crimea because things could unravel very quickly there. But when have they done anything sensible in the last 20 years...
 
The sensible thing for the Russians now would be to pull from the south and fortify Crimea because things could unravel very quickly there. But when have they done anything sensible in the last 20 years...
Not sure they can hold Crimea if they are tumbling like this. Ukraine can blow the bridge from Russia, cut the water supply and make life there extremely miserable.
 
Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
 
It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
Again some mind-boggling over confidence that the UAF can't possibly attempt something so bold. Disregarding a very basic war rule I guess.
 
It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
It’s almost as if nobody in Russian army and everyone forced at gunpoint to conscript believes in their cause being worth fighting for…
 
Its like they've got so complacent sat behind all their artillery, they have feck all idea what to do against an organised assault.
 
This is great news.
However, now comes the crunch time for putin.
Humiliated and defeated, will he just suck it up?
5 options I think.
1 suck it up
2 full mobilisation under the guise of perceived western aggression
3 nuclear
4 someone kills putin
5 he resigns

Hoping for 1,4 or 5 but they all seem somewhat unlikely…..
caveat is I don’t really have any great understanding of the situation

Option 6 - get Allardyce in till the end of the season.
 
Option 6 - get Allardyce in till the end of the season.
They basically played Allardyce ball until the US gave Ukraine the artillery equivalent of Rory Delap and now they’re outranged and being beaten at their own game.
 


Does he mean 2500 square km? This person seems to have a PhD and he can't even write basic units properly?

(for the mathematically challenged, 2500 square km = 25 km x 100 km, it is significant but it is not as great as 2500 km which is about the distance from Kyiv to Paris.)
 
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They basically played Allardyce ball until the US gave Ukraine the artillery equivalent of Rory Delap and now they’re outranged and being beaten at their own game.

Delap and maybe Fellaini coming on to cause havoc in the box (the 2500km box).
 
This is the outcome everyone wanted but is nobody else slightly concerned about what happens next?
There's been an 8-year war in the Donbas already. We might see Russians pulling back all troops to the Donbas and continue the war for another decade there, on a lower intensity level. Unless Ukraine decides to capture all of the Donbas...
 

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This is the outcome everyone wanted but is nobody else slightly concerned about what happens next?

We have discussed this during the first couple of months of this war. But actually nobody can predict anything in this war.

For example, my opinion was that the West should do more, like using the NATO air force to help the Ukrainians. A lot of people said that this is nonsense because Putin will go nuclear. I was saying that Putin is not crazy enough to use nuclear arms, and anyway if he is crazy enough, then it is more dangerous for him to lose vs Ukraine, than to lose vs NATO. I believe it would be easier for Putin to "save face" if he says that the "US Air Force beat Russia", than if it comes to "Ukraine beat Russia".

Today, it seems to me I was wrong, and I have changed my opinion. If the Ukrainians win this war by themselves, it will cement their national identity. That's probably the best possible outcome. We still don't know what Putin will do if he loses the war. Probably he doesn't know, either. Perhaps he will do nothing and just send anyone who complains to the gulags, that was the standard KGB playbook!
 
We have discussed this during the first couple of months of this war. But actually nobody can predict anything in this war.

For example, my opinion was that the West should do more, like using the NATO air force to help the Ukrainians. A lot of people said that this is nonsense because Putin will go nuclear. I was saying that Putin is not crazy enough to use nuclear arms, and anyway if he is crazy enough, then it is more dangerous for him to lose vs Ukraine, than to lose vs NATO. I believe it would be easier for Putin to "save face" if he says that the "US Air Force beat Russia", than if it comes to "Ukraine beat Russia".

Today, it seems to me I was wrong, and I have changed my opinion. If the Ukrainians win this war by themselves, it will cement their national identity. That's probably the best possible outcome. We still don't know what Putin will do if he loses the war. Probably he doesn't know, either. Perhaps he will do nothing and just send anyone who complains to the gulags, that was the standard KGB playbook!

I think it’s more what will putin do when he loses the war - not if.
Either he loses to Ukrainians “on their own” or he loses to “the west” I think both must be equally unpalatable.
If he’s hoping a cold winter will make everyone forget what he’s done and beg for Russian gas he’s in for another shock.
I just hope there is no further escalation from here
 
I think it’s more what will putin do when he loses the war - not if.
Either he loses to Ukrainians “on their own” or he loses to “the west” I think both must be equally unpalatable.
If he’s hoping a cold winter will make everyone forget what he’s done and beg for Russian gas he’s in for another shock.
I just hope there is no further escalation from here
He’s got basically no sizable conventional forces left to escalate with. The only thing he has are his nukes, and I don’t think his military high command are suicidal to go along with them being used without Russia itself being invaded.
 
Ukrainians using maskirovka on the Russians.

The much-publicised Ukrainian southern offensive was a disinformation campaign to distract Russia from the real one being prepared in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s special forces have said.

“[It] was a big special disinformation operation,” said Taras Berezovets, a former national security adviser turned press officer for the Bohun brigade of Ukraine’s special forces.

“[Russia] thought it would be in the south and moved their equipment. Then, instead of the south, the offensive happened where they least expected, and this caused them to panic and flee.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...outhern-offensive-was-disinformation-campaign
 
Brilliant. Whether this story is true or not doesn’t even matter. They’re paralyzing the Russian military with this kinda thing. Because of their backward training methods, the Russians have no ability to act independently down the chain of command, and their upper command are totally inexperienced in command & control at the scale this war is being fought at, and are constantly being drawn into front line areas in order to direct their forces, completely negating their ability to direct their forces properly from a central command position.