Old school. It's what the British Empire used to do but obviously needs to be backed up with serious discipline if your fighting force isn't to become a rabble. Might also explain the proclivity for committing heinous war crimes to some degree.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Old school. It's what the British Empire used to do but obviously needs to be backed up with serious discipline if your fighting force isn't to become a rabble. Might also explain the proclivity for committing heinous war crimes to some degree.
"I really don't want to leave Crimea. It's so cool here. I'm used to it. It's like we were at home here. Everything is so soulful, homey. * Sobbing *"
Bless.
Bless.
Oh no! Anyway...
Z army is scraping the barrel now, no wonder Russian advancements have been halted to the few hundred meters in a week here and there. It will be an easy meat for the thousands of Ukrainian soldiers now undertaking training in Britain and elsewhere in Nato countries once they graduate and come back while operating Nato level weapons.
More worryingly for Putin, they already have a huge population decline issue, add in many Russians fleeing the country, the brain drain and getting close to 100k killed/wounded men (most of whom you'd assume are between 16-35) is hardly going to help. He's tried to even pay couples to have more kids and they're now facing a weak economy for years which stunts childbirth rates as well.
Well he deported close to 2 million Ukrainians in occupied territories to Russia for a reason.
Yes that's a big part of why he's invaded - they also include Donbas population in their official Russian figures for example - so most of those people are already counted by Putin. Question is can he make it more attractive for people to stay long term, it's all well and good bringing millions of Ukrainians into the country but they can't, at least easily, keep the majority of them there once the war is over.
Thread on Russia's population transfer to Crimea.
Interesting. When I was in Crimea about 12 years ago, most locals appeared to lean pro-Russia - noticably more so than those I met in places like Kherson, Mykolaev, and Odesa (where despite everyone speaking Russian, seemed quite content being Ukrainians living in a democratic nation).
No. When they were negotiating at the beginning, Zelensky proposed a lengthy period of prolongated status-quo on Crimea with a real referendum at some point in a distant future.
Retaking Crimea (be it by force or by negotiation) would always be a long-term goal of an independent Ukraine, but it was certainly not one of its goals during this war.
https://iccrimea.org/population.html
https://www.geocurrents.info/geopolitics/nationalism/error-ukraines-political-divisions
Ethnic Composition of Crimea (1793-1989)
| Ethnic Group | 1793 (1) | 1863 (2) | 1923 (3) | 1939 (4) | 1959 (5) | 1970 (6) | 1989 (8) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenians | * | na | 12,000 | 12,873 | na | 3,091 | na |
| Belarussians | na | na | na | na | 21,672 | 39,793 | 50,045 |
| Bulgarians | * | 17,704 | 12,000 | 15,353 | na | na | na |
| Chuvashes | na | na | na | na | na | 2,453 | na |
| Crimean Tatars | 171,751 | na | 150,000 | 218,179 | na | 6,479 | 38,365 |
| Estonians *** | na | na | na | 1,900 | na | na | 898 |
| Germans | * | na | 40,000 | 51,299 | na | na | na |
| Greeks | * | na | na | 20,652 | na | na | na |
| Jews | na | na | 50,000 | 65,452 | 26,374 | 25,614 | 17,371 |
| Karaims | na | na | na | na | na | 1,553 | na |
| Moldavians | na | na | na | na | na | 3,456 | na |
| Mordovians | na | na | na | na | na | 3,179 | na |
| Poles | na | na | na | na | na | 6,038 | na |
| Russians | 10,831 | 29,246 | 306,000 | 558,481 | 858,273 | 1,220,484 | 1,629,542 |
| Ukrainians | na | 7,797 | ** | 154,120 | 267,659 | 480,733 | 625,919 |
| Other | na | na | na | 28,076 | na | na | na |
| TOTAL | na | 196,873 | 623,000 | 1,126,385 | 1,201,517 | 1,813,502 | na |
i don't think crimea will be taken but should bear in mind that the ukrainians also displaced the tartars. the ukrainian population grew 400% and the russian by 300% from 39-89. historically, the ukrainians have always been a minority in crimea. never being more than 25% of the population. which is probably why it's typically associated as being most pro-russian of all russian occupied ukrainian territory.
The twitter thread doesn't really pass a quick fact-check. He mentions the number of 1 million newcomers as a fact, while in the article he's referencing 1 million is mentioned as an "estimate from unofficial sources", then they reference the official numbers published by Ukraine (already down by half, 500k).
This leniency in terms of numbers is understandable when you read the article's own summary:
You can also track down the unofficial sources if you're not lazy, but they're incredibly un-scientific in their method, relying on "estimates from anonymous experts". Green is the numbers that they have a source for, the red is an estimate from god knows where.
| Показатель | Количество человек | |
| переезд в город Севастополь на постоянное проживание (официальная статистика на 01.01.2021) | 180 505 | |
| переезд в оккупированную АР Крым на постоянное проживание (официальная статистика на 01.01.2021) | 201 420 | |
| экспертная оценка превышения реального количества постоянного населения над официальными данными по городу Севастополь (минимальная) | 300 000 | |
| экспертная оценка превышения реального количества постоянного населения над официальными данными по городу Симферополь (минимальная) | 300 000 | |
| экспертная оценка превышения реального количества постоянного населения над официальными данными по городам Ялта, Алушта, Евпатория, Феодосия (минимальная) | 50 000 | |
| В целом | 1 031 925 |
An important note is that this is obviously something that is happening — Russians (although not just ethnically Russians which the article seems to imply) have been moving to Crimea and the government does try to create favourable conditions for the newcomers. I just hate speculative threads like this that stitch together a bunch of random stuff and then present is as if it was a clear and factucally-based narrative.
Wow. How big are those numbers %-wise? Obviously by a very rough estimate. I have no idea how many planes Russia has but I understand how much one cost.
Glad to be corrected!
Russia had leased the port of Sevastopol where it stationed its Black Sea fleet.
I read that based on the pre explosion satellite images it stationed around 10% of Russian jet airfoces (based on pre invasion total figure which have seen massive losses so far). Not sure how accurate it is though.
Wonderful. It's insane that they weren't better defended if that's the case but all for the best.
Before/after:
This is great stuff, there’s nothing left from it.
This is great stuff, there’s nothing left from it.
As suspected, the base got completely destroyed. Even the aircraft that survived should be quite severely damaged from the blasts.
Meanwhile in Russia:
There were no casualties from the blast in the Novofedorovka region in Crimea, and no aviation equipment was damaged, the ministry said.
“No harm done… We exhale and go to the beach.”
HIMARS o’clock strikes again.
I quite like Russia's explanation that they did it themselves and it was an accident as if their military hasn't appeared incompetent enough already.
Nothing to see here, someone is just having a BBQ according to the Russian media.
Can we now say that pro-Russian separatists are in panic mode?
Very likely that a huge number of pilots in the area (who normally are as valuable as equipment) will be KIA too.
I don't doubt about Ukraine capabilities, but could it be that there is NATO unofficial boots in ground to operate special equipment and this would be one of the situations?
Yeah there definitely needs some context for it in numbers terms.
Possible that not all of those were there when the strikes it too.
There are some claims on twitter that, apparently, Peskov said everyone who flees Crimea will be tried for discrediting the army.
I think it was someone joking mate.
I doubt it, but I think us intelligence is really guiding a lot of these missions.
There is without doubt more support being given than officially announced.
But we do know that putting even unofficial boots on the ground is fraught with risk. The Americans knew there were Soviets serving in the Vietnam War, the Soviets knew there were CIA agents with cash and weapons in Afghanistan, and more recently NATO has publicised Russian involvement in Syria. It is a huge risk to take, and will likely be found out, with Putin broadcasting it as an escalation of hostilies with NATO leading who knows where.
Could be, yeah.
Maybe I didn't express myself well. More than boots on ground I meant military consultants that can direct certain special operations and how to use certain equipment. Because if they destroyed 10% of the air force it might work the risk. Specially if they are at 300 km of distance.
And you said so, it seems that in every country had done it in the past and nothing happened
I would be shocked if that wasn't happening from NATO on the Ukrainian side. And I would be equally shocked if the Chinese were not doing the same with the Russians.
It’s incredibly difficult to differentiate between a military advisor, a trainer, a military attaché, and a secret service agent, to name but a few.
How sure are you about the Chinese though? I’ve certainly not seen any evidence of deaths or photographic proof like we have done with Chechens/Syrians etc, but then the same is true for US personnel. Although I’m led to believe Western military advisors are based outside of Ukraine, not in it.
I will be clear - I haven't seen any evidence for both, so it is a pure assumption of what China could be doing. But if I were Xi, providing support, intelligence, training, repairs or even equipment that the Russians cannot get because of sanctions seems a fairly obvious move. Especially as it could weaken the US, even indirectly.
Given the levels of state security in China now, way above what they were 10 years ago, I am not sure you would get many reports being leaked if Russians were being trained in China, for example.