Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

massi83 said:
I'm pretty indifferent about this, but what is the benefit of letting Russians pass through Finland and have a holiday in Italy/France? Pretty much none of the people crossing the border at the moment are people looking to move out of Russia.
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The second part of your statement simply isn't true.

As for those Russians who go on holidays? Generally I couldn't care less about those but stopping them from doing so also doesn't influence the war or Europe's security in any way (if it does and I just don't see it, I'm open to listen to contrary opinions).
 
The airbase is located 200km behind the front lines and well beyond the striking range of Gmlrs or Tochka-u rockets.


 
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harms said:
The second part of your statement simply isn't true.

As for those Russians who go on holidays? Generally I couldn't care less about those but stopping them from doing so also doesn't influence the war or Europe's security in any way (if it does and I just don't see it, I'm open to listen to contrary opinions).
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Percentage-wise it is absolutely true. On absolute numbers it is probably in the hundreds, so depends on definition. It has been over 5 months, most people who wanted to move have done so or at least applied for the visa already, doubt they will be cancelling existing ones. And it isn't like it would be forever or that there are no other ways to get out of Russia.
 
2nd strike today outside the range of anything we know Ukraine has, or these HARM missiles that have just been delivered. Could be sabotage I suppose.
 
Yeh this ain't sabotage. If you look at google maps, the plane parking spots are spread out accross a massive ring road. Looks like they've covered most of it though. This place is done for.

 
Simbo said:
2nd strike today outside the range of anything we know Ukraine has, or these HARM missiles that have just been delivered. Could be sabotage I suppose.
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Although it is not what they are inteded for, the more modern versions of HARM missiles could at least in theory be used for this. They have been fitted with GPS recivers to be able to target radars that are switching off so they have navigation capabilities to strike regular ground targets.
 
the hea said:
Although it is not what they are inteded for, the more modern versions of HARM missiles could at least in theory be used for this. They have been fitted with GPS recivers to be able to target radars that are switching off so they have navigation capabilities to strike regular ground targets.
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AT 200km+ range? If fighter launched I suppose they could have approached from the west over the sea if there are is no Russian Nazy operating there now.
 
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Simbo said:
Actually in Austria, not Germany.
Ironically rubbing 'free speech' in the faces of her fellow Russians who can't do this kind of thing at home, because of actual fascism.

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Didn’t end Well. Booking.com canceled all her reservations, now there’s crocodile tears on Telegram.

 
Doesn't Russia have extensive missile defence systems that should stop this kind of attack happening? It seems like multiple rockets got through. If this war is seen in the wider context of Nato weaponry vs Russian defence I'd imagine there are a few worried generals in Putin's army at the moment.
 
When the war comes to you:



I've seen speculation that it could be Ukraine's own Grom missiles, which have been under development.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Doesn't Russia have extensive missile defence systems that should stop this kind of attack happening? It seems like multiple rockets got through. If this war is seen in the wider context of Nato weaponry vs Russian defence I'd imagine there are a few worried generals in Putin's army at the moment.
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Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there? Plus Ukrainian missiles do fly to Rostovskaya and Belgorodskaya oblast' from time to time, so it's not like Russia has something like Israel's Iron Dome that can catch 95% of the incoming missiles.

I'd imagine that strategic points like Moscow/St. Petersburg etc. are better defended.
 
harms said:
Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there?
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They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.

So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.

Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
 
stefan92 said:
They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.

So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.

Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
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I don't know much about the technical stuff of the war, so my nationality shouldn't give my opinion on this any additional importance.
 
harms said:
Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there? Plus Ukrainian missiles do fly to Rostovskaya and Belgorodskaya oblast' from time to time, so it's not like Russia has something like Israel's Iron Dome that can catch 95% of the incoming missiles.

I'd imagine that strategic points like Moscow/St. Petersburg etc. are better defended.
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That's a good point - you'd need to spend half your GDP on missile defence if you wanted to create an Iron Dome style system over the whole of Russia. Just feels like this should have been thought through. Crimea is not exactly Moscow but it has a key Black Sea base which Putin is supposedly very keen on, and is an important asset in this war. At the very least shouldn't they have predicted a Ukranian attack in that area, rather than say, St Petersburg?
 
There were rumours that Ukrainians received missiles with range of 200-300km. I guess it might be true. I am sure it will strike fear into Russians, nowhere is safe and the Crimean bridge is in danger more than ever before.
 
stefan92 said:
They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.

So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.

Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
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I would genuinely love to know Western intelligence's best estimates of current Russian stocks of rockets, munitions, vehicles etc. We'll never hear them say it, but I imagine there will be a few serious pinch points that go some way to explaining Russian actions during the course of this war
 
NicolaSacco said:
Doesn't Russia have extensive missile defence systems that should stop this kind of attack happening? It seems like multiple rockets got through. If this war is seen in the wider context of Nato weaponry vs Russian defence I'd imagine there are a few worried generals in Putin's army at the moment.
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Ukraine were recently given AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti Radiation Missile). These missiles are designed to take out the enemies air defence systems by homing in on their radar emissions.
If Ukraine has been able to take out some of Russias air surveillance radars with these missiles it is possible that they have been able to get some ground attack missiles through and hit the airbase.

A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile. The problem with those is that they rely on radar homing for the terminal phase so they wouldn't be able to hit ground targets with any accuracy, it is possibile that they have been able to develop a GPS guided version of the Neputune, maybe even with the help of others.
Another option is that they have been given some new missiles that we don't know about.
 
the hea said:
Ukraine were recently given AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti Radiation Missile). These missiles are designed to take out the enemies air defence systems by homing in on their radar emissions.
If Ukraine has been able to take out some of Russias air surveillance radars with these missiles it is possible that they have been able to get some ground attack missiles through and hit the airbase.

A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile. The problem with those is that they rely on radar homing for the terminal phase so they wouldn't be able to hit ground targets with any accuracy, it is possibile that they have been able to develop a GPS guided version of the Neputune, maybe even with the help of others.
Another option is that they have been given some new missiles that we don't know about.
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Pretty sure they are using weapons from NATO to carry out the above hit in Crimea.
 
Raoul said:
Pretty sure they are using weapons from NATO to carry out the above hit in Crimea.
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I think that's one of those unknowable questions. The degradation of the Russian military in one form or another is pretty astonishing though
 
the hea said:
A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile.
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Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.
 
stefan92 said:
Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.
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I think this is possible too. US is normally upfront about everything when it comes to their deliveries so that would be unexpected.
 
Rajma said:
I think this is possible too. US is normally upfront about everything when it comes to their deliveries so that would be unexpected.
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Don't think the US has listed every delivered system. Also don't think its expected to do so.There is also the possibility of sending some experimental/ prototype systems that can get tested in Ukraine. It would make sense for really long range stuff that has little chance of getting captured.
 
stefan92 said:
Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.
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I don't think they have even testfired a Hrim missile yet, the furthest they have gotten, that I know of at least is testing the engine. Sapsan I have never heard of before, so won't say anything about that.
I won't say that it's impossible but I think it's highly unlikely that they have been able to make such massive steps in the developement, in such a short time.
 
The Firestarter said:
Don't think the US has listed every delivered system. Also don't think its expected to do so.There is also the possibility of sending some experimental/ prototype systems that can get tested in Ukraine. It would make sense for really long range stuff that has little chance of getting captured.
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Anyway let the Orcs guessing what’s coming after them.
 
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