Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What we do know IMO:

-The invasion of Kyiv (biggest city) failed.
-The invasion of Kharkiv (2nd biggest) failed.
-There's currently a blockade in Odessa (3rd biggest, main port).
-The invasion of Luhansk is succeeding.
-The invasion of Donetsk is in progress, no clear result yet.

Therefore, the success of the operation depends on where the goalposts are. If we consider the initial demands, Russia is failing. If we consider a new, more reduced approach, they could be succeeding. For now.

We could also consider the expansion of NATO, and NATO speaking with one united voice, both of which were the opposite of what Putin was aiming for in February.
 
What we do know IMO:

-The invasion of Kyiv (biggest city) failed.
-The invasion of Kharkiv (2nd biggest) failed.
-There's currently a blockade in Odessa (3rd biggest, main port).
-The invasion of Luhansk is succeeding.
-The invasion of Donetsk is in progress, no clear result yet.

Therefore, the success of the operation depends on where the goalposts are. If we consider the initial demands, Russia is failing. If we consider a new, more reduced approach, they could be succeeding. For now.

Yes. That is the only thoroughly analysis. basically tangible results in the field (can be more and more specific). Who has more moral, equipment, and others is just pure speculation and propaganda
 
What we do know IMO:

-The invasion of Kyiv (biggest city) failed.
-The invasion of Kharkiv (2nd biggest) failed.
-There's currently a blockade in Odessa (3rd biggest, main port).
-The invasion of Luhansk is succeeding.
-The invasion of Donetsk is in progress, no clear result yet.

Therefore, the success of the operation depends on where the goalposts are. If we consider the initial demands, Russia is failing. If we consider a new, more reduced approach, they could be succeeding. For now.

There's not much in the way of Russian success in any of these scenarios. They attempted to take the entire country and failed quite miserably. Therefore Putin's original intent in invading Ukraine has already failed.

That of course won't stop him from attempting to move the goalposts by reframing success as gaining territory in Donbas. Except even if he does, he will likely not be able to hold on to it because the Ukrainians won't stop fighting until they reclaim all losses, during which they will continue to get armed with sophisticated NATO weapons. Putin has failed to take any of Ukraine's top 7 populated cities in this conflict and is now struggling to hold onto places like Kherson. At this rate, he will probably take a few more towns in Donbas then attempt to initiate peace talks to preserve his gains. The Ukrainians will reject any talks that cause them to lose any land lost post 24 Feb and the fighting will continue until Putin finally capitulates by backing out in a way that is digestible for his own domestic considerations that allow him to bow out without looking like a weak, feckless loser.
 
What we do know IMO:

-The invasion of Kyiv (biggest city) failed.
-The invasion of Kharkiv (2nd biggest) failed.
-There's currently a blockade in Odessa (3rd biggest, main port).
-The invasion of Luhansk is succeeding.
-The invasion of Donetsk is in progress, no clear result yet.

Therefore, the success of the operation depends on where the goalposts are. If we consider the initial demands, Russia is failing. If we consider a new, more reduced approach, they could be succeeding. For now.

Yeah this seems correct to me and what we truly do know. I would say Luhansk is basically under Russian control and Donetsk looks to be succeeding unless the new arms makes a difference.
 
We could also consider the expansion of NATO, and NATO speaking with one united voice, both of which were the opposite of what Putin was aiming for in February.

Careful now! Calling it an expansion has been on the verge of fighting words in this thread.
 
I know. Something about it not being NATO expanding but other countries joining, and that calling it an expansion is a Russian propaganda talking point.
I know a lot of posters don’t buy into the idea of NATO expansion as a valid reason for invading a country. Not sure what you mean about Russian propaganda.
 
On that note:



This is one step closer to the truth. Although the bit Putin will never admit is that a strong and democratic Ukraine that embraces the rule of law and pluralistic values is an existential threat to the corrupt, authoritarian police state he is running out of Moscow, which is why he has to stop the spread of democracy into the Russian sphere at all costs.
 
This is one step closer to the truth. Although the bit Putin will never admit is that a strong and democratic Ukraine that embraces the rule of law and pluralistic values is an existential threat to the corrupt, authoritarian police state he is running out of Moscow, which is why he has to stop the spread of democracy into the Russian sphere at all costs.

Nail on head.
 
Not aimed at you by any means - I have heard plenty of politicians and protestors in the West state the reason Putin invaded was because of NATO expansion, and here he is proving them wrong!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.al...-declaring-war-on-ukraine-translated-excerpts

"I am referring to the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders. It is well known that for 30 years we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement with the leading NATO countries on the principles of equal and inviolable security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly faced either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure and blackmail, while NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders"

This is from the day of the declaration of war. Sorry, special operation.

Putin lies.
 
This is one step closer to the truth. Although the bit Putin will never admit is that a strong and democratic Ukraine that embraces the rule of law and pluralistic values is an existential threat to the corrupt, authoritarian police state he is running out of Moscow, which is why he has to stop the spread of democracy into the Russian sphere at all costs.

Esentially this. NATO is not expanding. Russia is. Countries have self determination and can decide (an actually have to apply) in the former. Not in the latter.
 


This could also explain why Western sanctions have not 'bitten' as heavily as expected.

eu countries are also buying directly from india. india buys from russia, india refines in india. india then sells to eu. eu then pays highest possible price which it is partly responsible for because of sanctions. genius right?

political class owned by with shares in energy companies laughing all the way to the bank.
 

Thanks for posting this Raoul.
A fantastic, moving, watch. It's easy to become complacent after time, but clips like this put things into perspective.
The war for those people is real, and unrelenting. Death can come at any moment, and fear and suffering really is 24 hrs a day.
Those brave people have balls of steel and hearts of lions