Awful watch. Having lived through the war as a kid and I didnt see that much of it, especially compared to many others who either needed to flee, lost everything or family members, friends, I can imagine how they feel. My grandparents needed to flee their hometown and it took a toll on my grandad who got ill and was never the same. I remember news about the war, people saying on radio who are they looking for or asking someone to let know if he/she is all right, news about which town or village fell, rushing to the shelter.. And as I said that's nothing compared to others but nevertheless I have a terrible feeling watching videos like this and I remember having an awful feeling in the stomach on the morning of 24th of February when news broke out Russia is attacking Ukraine..
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Awful watch. Having lived through the war as a kid and I didnt see that much of it, especially compared to many others who either needed to flee, lost everything or family members, friends, I can imagine how they feel. My grandparents needed to flee their hometown and it took a toll on my grandad who got ill and was never the same. I remember news about the war, people saying on radio who are they looking for or asking someone to let know if he/she is all right, news about which town or village fell, rushing to the shelter.. And as I said that's nothing compared to others but nevertheless I have a terrible feeling watching videos like this and I remember having an awful feeling in the stomach on the morning of 24th of February when news broke out Russia is attacking Ukraine..
I still don't know who's going to bankroll Ukraine in the long run. They were the 2nd poorest country in Europe pre the 2022 invasion. As long as Russia themselves won't suffer real attacks on their soil they can bankroll the war with oil and gas revenue.
I agree. Once winter hits, and energy prices rocket further in Europe and the West, I think there will be more and more calls for compromise/negotiating.
Yeah and in the post covid era where most just want the economy to go back to normal and then you have the America first mantra with the American Repubs. I just can't see where the money will come from in a prolonged war of attrition.
The American military complex will fund it if all else fails and Dems and Repubs continually vote to give it greater funding because arms companies donate funds to their campaigns. This is an existential war against Western democracy and peace across European as a whole. It's a war Russia must outright lose.
Russia aren’t going to accept anything less than control of Ukraine, and if Peter Zeihan is right, and many government officials have commented on it in Russia, that they want to take the Baltic states and they want half of Poland. This is so they can have defensible borders holding the Polish gap and the Bessarabian gap in Moldova, which they will also take. It’s not a coincidence Russia has basically captured eastern Moldova already, they’re headed that way.
His theory is that the west feels they must stop Russia in Ukraine or confrontation with NATO is next, where Russia will have the option of using nukes or losing.
If Russia takes Ukraine, partisans will likely destroy the Ukraine pipeline as well.
Yes, even the biggest cynics on western goodwill should understand the greed of some parties has the power to keep the gravy flowing.
Regardless, Ukraine is never giving up, no matter what help they do or do get from elsewhere. Neither are other eastern European countries. Some people just don't realise what is at stake.
I agree with all the above, but I genuinely think the unity the West has had up until this point will be seriously tested in the winter. Everyone will be wanting to keep their houses in order as a matter of priority.
Just look at what's happening in the UK right now. If there was an election tomorrow, I'm not sure Ukraine would be the most pressing issue for voters.
Economy, Energy and Immigration would probably all poll higher, unfortunately.
Russia isn't going to invade Poland or any Nato country. They know they will be destroyed and humiliated. Its non nato countries who have a good cause for worry.
The bit where the soldier opened up a Russian MRE for the dog to eat was a bit poetic, given how Putin has treated his own soldiers like cannon fodder.
Sounds like you would be better served, if you just stopped reading this random Peter Zeihan guy.
I guess it's a good thing they're not selling their military hardware to their police departments.
I agree, Zeihan has also suggested that Russia might blackmail Germany and/or Turkey, saying that they will only supply oil and gas if they withdraw from NATO and stop all military aid to Ukraine. I'm a little surprised if hasn't happened yet, just because it sounds like it would be devistatingly effective, much more so than the idea of using tactical nukes in a way with NATO, who can respond in kind, and the introduction of which might wildly effect world opinion.
But seeing as Putin holds more than half the world hostage with his oil, gas, wheat, fertilizer and potash supplies, can anyone but the few (mostly) self sufficient countries afford to oppose him? Russia can live off potatoes and their own energy supplies for a long time.
Since Russia violated the nuclear disarment treaty they signed with Ukraine, we ought to give Ukraine some nukes. For real.
This is the sort of creative thinking that NATO is missing
.It sounds crazy to me too, I'll admit, and these plans were made before the Russian armed forced showed themselves to be so wildly incompetent in comparison to NATO. The thinking was that if Russia invaded like they're doing in Ukraine, they'd be pushed back and that would be the end of it.
But now Russia know they would lose a conventional war, and while this is good news in general, Russia are desperate. They see their post-Soviet borders and indefensible, and feel they must hold most of the territory they had as the USSR to narrow the points of entry, so they would actually have enough soldiers to successfully defend itself. They've gone from holding 1 of 9 entry points after the collapse to 5 iirc as of now.
He thinks this is why they're talking about nukes, because they would need to use tactical nukes to have any hope of beating NATO forces, or more likely terrorizing people into submission (which I don't think it's likely either).
From a demographic standpoint, Russia's population is collapsing even faster than Europe, their pool of 18-40 year olds in ideal draft age will be half what it is now in 20 years, leaving them with a force incapable of holding the vast planes of western Russia. And even if they believed no one in Europe would invade them currently, they're worried about what might happen in 100 years.
Nevermind that Europe will have a population collapse as well, and none of their borders are defensible either, of course.
Again, this is all from Zeihan.
This is the sort of creative thinking that NATO is missing
Well I mean Russia promised to defend them in return. Now they are doing opposite while dick swinging their nukes. Give Ukraine a few nukes in compensation and then see if Russia's citizens feel safe in support of the war.
Talk about a system that would be hard to install and train Ukranians to maintain and utilize! We're not sending them anything fancier than a stinger or artillery piece because of this same issue (okay some of the fancier stuff is finally getting to the front after months of training #gohimars).
I don't know this Zeihan guy, but he doesn't sound impressive. Putin and his cronies love talking shit but they know their limits.
He's the guy who predicted the invasion when few did, book was up to #3 on the NYT nonfiction best seller list last month, read by many influential people, DC think tank member who is in high demand, I've found his presentations on YouTube to be extremely impressive, gets to elemental issues and clearly demonstrates details.
Hard to find anyone as knowledgeable that gives such a complete picture with which to contrast his perspective. But I'll take any recommendations, already checked out Mearsheimer though.
I don't want to overstate things, he's only said that the situation is scarier in some ways because Russia would have to retreat in confrontation with NATO, and so it brings nukes to the table as the only option, which is a dangerous place to be.
With things going so badly, it surely is causing a rethink, and so new predictions may be too be made when and if Russia move in another direction.
But as I said above, his info is great, and very complete. Here's a presentation he made recently to some US military officers, check it out if you have time, we'll worth it.
I reckon the West won't wanna give China the impression that they can "get away" with a Taiwan invasion. And therefore, the West might be very willing to make sure Russia suffers a defeat.
The fact that you refer to him as "your guru" should be alarming enough for yourself. And that you think he is the go-to-guy in covid and Russia should be another alarm bell. Again he is a total random and plenty of what you posted by him is flat out crazy.
I highly doubt he offers literally anything to anyone else in this thread, whatever anyone's bias is.
The only viable option of attacking Baltic states I've seen so far, was stating that Russia would have to make same sort of light version of blitzkrieg they made on Kyiv, as defenses would be alot easier to overcome, aim to quickly take all government buildings, installing puppet regime and have them refuse NATO military aid citing russian liberation from some sort of evil repressions.
They'll have to come up with something different now, if NATO will go through with strengthening eastern flank. NATO also has to be more proactive.
But I think Russia is overestimated as much as it is underestimated. They're down to a single localized push in Ukraine and should be running low on modern tech weapons.
Edit: Also, regarding Poland, I don't think there's even a discussion there, poles are more than capable of putting up enough resistance for whole of NATO to have a breakfast, take a dump, then arrive and wipe the floor with russians.
They'll have to come up with something different now, if NATO will go through with strengthening eastern flank. NATO also has to be more proactive.
But I think Russia is overestimated as much as it is underestimated. They're down to a single localized push in Ukraine and should be running low on modern tech weapons.
Edit: Also, regarding Poland, I don't think there's even a discussion there, poles are more than capable of putting up enough resistance for whole of NATO to have a breakfast, take a dump, then arrive and wipe the floor with russians.
Whist the "Russia would never invade a NATO country" is very true, at least any time soon, you have to think how Russia operates. They don't just straight up invade anyone, it is proceeded with campaigns of information warfare and corruption, their specialty and main strength. In Russia everything and everyone is for sale, they treat the rest of the world the same way.
Bellingcat reported that billions had been funnelled to various key Ukrainians to hamper defenses and stage a coup on day 1, they took it and handed it straight to the SBU, for the most part. However, the Kherson oblast governer just ran away and the commanders seemingly opened the gates (bridges) without mounting a defense. The former mayor of Kherson has been charged with high-treason.
Ukraine was very fortunate Russia only managed to buy the one city, this time.
The Baltic states have already proven quite resiliant, they've been under these kind of attacks since independance, but they can never let their guard down. They don't know what the state of the world and NATO politics will be like in a decade or so, as new world leaders and crisis emerge.
Bellingcat reported that billions had been funnelled to various key Ukrainians to hamper defenses and stage a coup on day 1, they took it and handed it straight to the SBU, for the most part. However, the Kherson oblast governer just ran away and the commanders seemingly opened the gates (bridges) without mounting a defense. The former mayor of Kherson has been charged with high-treason.
Ukraine was very fortunate Russia only managed to buy the one city, this time.
The Baltic states have already proven quite resiliant, they've been under these kind of attacks since independance, but they can never let their guard down. They don't know what the state of the world and NATO politics will be like in a decade or so, as new world leaders and crisis emerge.
If I referred to him as my guru I was being cute, I've just been reading him recently, and been very impressed, as I've said. You seem strangely hostile about his ideas, i can't say I understand why, I'll be happy to discuss them if you'll stop being rude.
(Edit: I don't recall saying he was my go to guy for covid either, you'll have to refresh my memory if I mentioned covid at all.)
Yes indeed. The Russians have learned that the cost of destabilizing a country in slow motion and with little to no attribution, is far less costly than invading it. Putin's manipulation of foreign elections in over 25 countries is evidence of this.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/
Last edited:
Considering the UK&US made a joint statement basically saying China was the biggest threat in the world that's a safe bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-ukraine-dares-west-to-fight-on-battlefield
Putin claims Russia has barely started campaign in Ukraine, dares west to fight on battlefield
‘Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,’ Russian president tells Kremlin parliamentary leaders
Putin claims Russia has barely started campaign in Ukraine, dares west to fight on battlefield
‘Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,’ Russian president tells Kremlin parliamentary leaders
You're taken his gaslighting out of context. It sounds like he wants to sue for peace while keeping captured territories and is blaming the west for Ukrainian loss of life if he doesn't get what he wants.
A big one. It appears these relentless targeting of ammo dumps are taking their toll.
Very sensible military strategy from the Ukrainians.
Given how many of those countries seem to be actively sending weapons / support to Ukraine you could argue he's not done a very good job of itYes indeed. The Russians have learned that the cost of destabilizing a country in slow motion and with little to no attribution, is far less costly than invading it. Putin's manipulation of foreign elections in over 25 countries is evidence of this.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/
Ukraine added 35 tanks to its kill tally in its last update. Apparently that depot hit above was tank storage.
Absolute animals. But it would point to an expectation that they don't think they can keep this land. That is if it's in occupied territories.
Barbarians with nukes sounds about right. Putin is basically a blundering Genghis Kahn impersonator.
If this is correct it indicates that Russia are practically out of ground attack precision weapons.