Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Those feckers are leaving no stone unturned when it comes to mandatory military service in the context of this war. Among ice hockey fans, this news came up yesterday.

Reports: Flyers prospect Fedotov detained in Russia for allegedly evading military duties

Ivan Fedotov is a star goalie who just won the Gagarin Cup for CSKA Moscow. And now his lawyer can't even find his whereabouts according to Newsweek. That is really just sick; it would be as if the US government forced Wilt Chamberlain to serve in the army with the possibility of him going to the Vietnam War.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Those feckers are leaving no stone unturned when it comes to mandatory military service in the context of this war. Among ice hockey fans, this news came up yesterday.

Reports: Flyers prospect Fedotov detained in Russia for allegedly evading military duties

Ivan Fedotov is a star goalie who just won the Gagarin Cup for CSKA Moscow. And now his lawyer can't even find his whereabouts according to Newsweek. That is really just sick; it would be as if the US government forced Wilt Chamberlain to serve in the army with the possibility of him going to the Vietnam War.
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I mean.. the US government did try to jail Muhammad Ali for it.. or they might have jailed him.. so the US isn't that different here tbh
 
Frosty said:
Sorry that was meant as partly tongue in cheek. An investigation has started but if it isn't Russian state agents or sympathetic hackers, it is slightly concerning that anything related to the Army is that vulnerable.
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Gotcha! It's definitely concerning. And weird. I'm not sure you can really hack Twitter in that sense. Almost all of the time, when someone has their Twitter account "hacked", it just means they didn't have two-factor authentication on and misplaced their password somehow.
 
Frosty said:
From what I know, a continual drawing down of reserves, and moving lost materiel from other combat units. The guy I quoted is Defence Correspondent for the Kyiv Independent and therefore his views should be treated with caution.

I follow Michael Kofman who is good on a strategic picture: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael

He has a recent podcast here talking about the current war of attrition and how it may play out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/ukraine-and-russia-grapple-with-relentless-battle-and-attrition/
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I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
 
4bars said:
I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
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I prefer the academic analysis. Nothing wrong with someone making an incorrect prediction and then admitting as such. I am very interested in and on the lookout for analyses which explain how and why Putin is funding the war in materiel and men and money, so if anyone knows of any please do let me know.

I think the 'slow munching' of territory in a battle which has lasted over two months should not be diminished, but nor should it be overstated:

 
I was going through the comments on of the Sky news video on Youtube about Russians taking control of Lysychans'k and almost all the comments there were pro Russian making fun of western propaganda and saying things like Azov killed more civilians than Russia etc. Are these comments all Russian bots? I'm starting to worry that people are so distrustful of the western media and governments that they are actively supporting anyone who is going up against them even if they are 100x worse.
 
4bars said:
I found kofman moving the goalpost as anyody else. Though he had slways been cautious and have a serious analysis, in march was saying that the war wpuld unsuatainable for russia in 3-4 weeks. And here we are. Russia munching territory slowly but surely
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This was the only outcome possible, it baffled me back in march so many were buying the western media line of Russia not being able to do much.

Most wars take many years, and when Russia has such an overwhelming advantage in terms of guns, planes, artillery and man power, there's only one outcome.

Zelensky can be brave and hold out for another two years if he wants, but this is not Churchill with a strong British army and an ocean separating him from the Germans, there will only be one outcome for Ukraine.

The sad thing is it's in the interest of pretty much everyone but the Ukrainians and the Russians for the war to be long, drawn-out and bloody, which just means a lot of suffering for the Ukrainians to come. Putin won't care, we've seen many times in the past that he'll allow great suffering on his own people to come out victorious.
 
Dante said:



This guy's Youtube channel is probably the most reliable commentary I've found on this war. He's so much more balanced than you get elsewhere (including this thread), and he doesn't seem to fall into usual the traps of sensationalism or propaganda. I think he specialism is actually military procurement/finances rather than actual combat. But he still knows his onions.

His video on Germany's military their involvement and what they can realistically do to help Ukraine. I'd recommend it if you have some free time (although it's probably best to watch it on 2x speed).
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Thanks, I just started watching and it seems like good content so far. Some of the tweets are just hysterical.

EDIT: Watched almost all of it. Very good video. Sort of why I never bother with twitter coverage of events.
 
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MuFc_1992 said:
I was going through the comments on of the Sky news video on Youtube about Russians taking control of Lysychans'k and almost all the comments there were pro Russian making fun of western propaganda and saying things like Azov killed more civilians than Russia etc. Are these comments all Russian bots? I'm starting to worry that people are so distrustful of the western media and governments that they are actively supporting anyone who is going up against them even if they are 100x worse.
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A bunch of them are Russian bots, but a number of them also come from genuinely ungrateful twats always having some kind of agenda against the West. To a number of them, Putin is some kind of god of toxic masculinity, which should no longer exist in 2022. You can easily read the same crap with the same undertones among Trump supporters.
 
NM said:
I mean.. the US government did try to jail Muhammad Ali for it.. or they might have jailed him.. so the US isn't that different here tbh
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Not really a point as it wouldn’t happen today, unless it was a genuine world war or massive conflict within their own boarders.
 
marktan said:
This was the only outcome possible, it baffled me back in march so many were buying the western media line of Russia not being able to do much.

Most wars take many years, and when Russia has such an overwhelming advantage in terms of guns, planes, artillery and man power, there's only one outcome.

Zelensky can be brave and hold out for another two years if he wants, but this is not Churchill with a strong British army and an ocean separating him from the Germans, there will only be one outcome for Ukraine.

The sad thing is it's in the interest of pretty much everyone but the Ukrainians and the Russians for the war to be long, drawn-out and bloody, which just means a lot of suffering for the Ukrainians to come. Putin won't care, we've seen many times in the past that he'll allow great suffering on his own people to come out victorious.
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I was one of the ones that believed the media. I really thought that it would be a walk for ukranians even with a chance to dispute crimea

Sadly it seems they can't win this. The only one that seems that can is russia. But probably not even them in the long run
 
Red_toad said:
Not really a point as it wouldn’t happen today, unless it was a genuine world war or massive conflict within their own boarders.
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Only because of the power of the US military, but let's keep this on topic
 
4bars said:
I was one of the ones that believed the media. I really thought that it would be a walk for ukranians even with a chance to dispute crimea

Sadly it seems they can't win this. The only one that seems that can is russia. But probably not even them in the long run
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There was 0% chance Ukraine could take back Crimea. Anybody who thought / believed / read that didn't have a clue tbh. This is still much better than anybody could have hoped. Doomsday scenarios in the past have been Russian tanks in France in 1 week if they ever attacked Europe.
 
There will be no peace unless Ukraine gets all its territories back. Make no mistake, Russia is not winning this at all. The West will continue their support, while Russia will continue to bleed.
 
I love Peskov's comments about the West not allowing Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia. But when they'll be prepared to start first they have to give up on Crimea and Donbas.
 
While this war is inflicting catastrophic losses on the Russian army (for example the other day the visually confirmed number of Russian MBT losses exceeded 800, which is the stock of UK, France, Germany, Italy combined) in levels not seen since WW2, I think there’s been a severe underestimation by many analysts of the sheer depth in terms of usable materiel that they possess and what their breaking point would be.

Supply and ammunition depots as well as artillery pieces go up in smoke on the daily, yet so far that has not translated in a reduction in the Russian army’s ability to pepper Ukrainian positions almost non-stop.

And while I still believe that the Russian losses won’t be sustainable for too long, the prevailing question now is how long can Ukraine sustain for and will their breaking point be reached much earlier than the Russians. Not just in terms of materiel but morale and manpower too. By all accounts the battle for Severodonetsk was very bloody with at the very least many 100s, if not a few thousand, Ukrainian defenders dead in the process.

It’s a grim attritional war now and Ukraine will need all the help they can get if they are to survive it. Both to bridge the deficit in guns and to boost flagging morale.
 
4bars said:
I was one of the ones that believed the media. I really thought that it would be a walk for ukranians even with a chance to dispute crimea

Sadly it seems they can't win this. The only one that seems that can is russia. But probably not even them in the long run
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There's no doubt Ukraine came out better in the early part of this invasion. Russia got bogged down in incompetence and they also underestimated the Ukranians. They planned to use similar tactics to the US in Iraq, trying a swift invasion to take the Capital quickly and failed miserably.

But it was never going to be an easy win for Ukraine and retaking Crimea always seemed unlikely. Since the Russians retreated back to the Donbas region near the Russian border and changed tactics to a slow march, scorched earth artillery bombardment (50,000 rounds per day) they have been making gradual progress. Who knows how long they can keep this up but without an advanced Airforce there's not much Ukraine can do to combat these tactics. It's why they've been desperate for NATO countries to send them longer range missile systems.
 
Red_toad said:
So you bring up something from over half a century ago, not related to either country and that was on topic?
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No, @NM didn't bring up anything. @RedDevilQuebecois said that making Fedotov do his mandatory military service (which, for now, does not mean that he'll be sent to Ukraine against his will I think), would be like the US drafting Chamberlain when that could possibly mean sending him to Vietnam. Unless there's something that makes Ali fundamentally different from Fedotov and Chamberlain in this context, then it of course makes perfect sense to mention that the US did try to draft Ali, who in that case could not refuse to go to Vietnam if so ordered.
 
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tomaldinho1 said:
I mean...is anyone surprised. Is anyone also going to be surprised when Russia attacks through Belarus?
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Not sure Belarus can afford to join the war really and nor am I sure the Russians can afford to open up a new front. Status quo is just about working for Russia atm so they'll carry on. It oil hits $380 a barrel then they might just carry on for a long time.
 


From Konrad Muzyka - if Ukrainę does not counterattack by the end of September the longer term trends will favour Russia, given the Autumn rains and hindering of movement that will cause.
 
Frosty said:


From Konrad Muzyka - if Ukrainę does not counterattack by the end of September the longer term trends will favour Russia, given the Autumn rains and hindering of movement that will cause.
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Is it not Russia who has the issue here? Ukraine realistically isn't going to take back all that territory in the short term - I doubt they're even planning for that - they'll surely be fortifying defensive lines further back, giving themselves as much time as possible for NATO artillery and ammo and also sanctions to keep working. Russia is the one who needs more time in the short term, it's clear their new slow and steady approach with artillery overkill is working albeit at a huge human cost. Russia could hold the Donbas for years but if Ukraine can hold out elsewhere, an economically crippled Russia will slowly become less and less capable of holding Ukrainian occupied territory.
 
shamans said:
And on January they said there is no threat of Russian invasion
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Thing is, Lukashenko is increasingly reliant on his security forces.
Back when they had riots over election fraud, his forces couldn't handle it and had to get russian help to suppress them.
If he makes an unpopular move like jumping into russian war, that might reignite the riots, and this time he would be even more shorthanded.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Is it not Russia who has the issue here? Ukraine realistically isn't going to take back all that territory in the short term - I doubt they're even planning for that - they'll surely be fortifying defensive lines further back, giving themselves as much time as possible for NATO artillery and ammo and also sanctions to keep working. Russia is the one who needs more time in the short term, it's clear their new slow and steady approach with artillery overkill is working albeit at a huge human cost. Russia could hold the Donbas for years but if Ukraine can hold out elsewhere, an economically crippled Russia will slowly become less and less capable of holding Ukrainian occupied territory.
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Russia wont require much to hold onto Donbas or Crimea. If they don't enjoy Russia support yet, they will soon employing tactics similar to India or Israel where local populations are sent in massive numbers for settlements.
 
shamans said:
Russia wont require much to hold onto Donbas or Crimea. If they don't enjoy Russia support yet, they will soon employing tactics similar to India or Israel where local populations are sent in massive numbers for settlements.
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It won't really matter - if Ukraine can last long enough and then has enough artillery (this is wayyyy down the line) to push back, no one will stay there. Point being, the rainy season coming up in Ukraine this year doesn't really matter if the war lasts years. Russia are the ones who need at some point in the near future to say they have 'succeeded' whereas Ukraine just needs to survive. That's unless you buy the western rhetoric that they can push Russia back short term which just seems ridiculous given they are a smaller force and we know, pre NATO artillery, it was 15 to 1 in terms of long range artillery and whilst it might be closer now it's still nowhere near equal.
 
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