Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[MadMike]

That's unless you buy the western rhetoric that they can push Russia back short term which just seems ridiculous given they are a smaller force and we know, pre NATO artillery, it was 15 to 1 in terms of long range artillery and whilst it might be closer now it's still nowhere near equal.

I don’t think the target is to match them in current Russian numbers. You can’t increase the UA artillery 15 fold. That would take a monumental effort from western militaries and significant Ukrainian manpower to train units knowledgeable enough to man and maintain them.

I think the target here is to increase numbers of course but mostly to tip the balance by providing more quality than quantity. And maybe by doubling UA artillery in the process, the ratio only changes from 15-to-1 to 8-to-1. But if their accuracy and range are superior they can shoot and scoot, shoot and scoot. Inflicting heavy losses, destroying morale and reducing the numerical advantage in the process. Meanwhile saboteurs work to destroy ammo depos and supply lines.

 

[Raoul]

It won't really matter - if Ukraine can last long enough and then has enough artillery (this is wayyyy down the line) to push back, no one will stay there. Point being, the rainy season coming up in Ukraine this year doesn't really matter if the war lasts years. Russia are the ones who need at some point in the near future to say they have 'succeeded' whereas Ukraine just needs to survive. That's unless you buy the western rhetoric that they can push Russia back short term which just seems ridiculous given they are a smaller force and we know, pre NATO artillery, it was 15 to 1 in terms of long range artillery and whilst it might be closer now it's still nowhere near equal.

What works in the Ukrainian favor is they have an endless supply of arms from the west, along with pretty solid morale. Both things the Russians don't have the luxury of.

 

[VorZakone]

What works in the Ukrainian favor is they have an endless supply of arms from the west, along with pretty solid morale. Both things the Russians don't have the luxury of.

For how long though, there've already been reports coming out of desertions and demoralization.

 

[Frosty]

 

[Raoul]

For how long though, there've already been reports coming out of desertions and demoralization.

There will always be some, but collectively, the Ukrainians are light years ahead of the Russians in the morale department, which wont be insignificant as the war grinds on.

 

[Frosty]

For how long though, there've already been reports coming out of desertions and demoralization.

I think that is attributable to the changed nature of the fighting, and you are right to raise a concern. The Ukrainian daily death rate amongst soldiers is over half of the daily death rate for the British Armed Forces in WW2.

Probably the parallel that comes to mind for me would be the British Army in WW1 in the Battle of 3rd Ypres (Passchendaele) in the Summer of 1917 and the 100 days offensive to end the war in 1918.

Passchendaele today is a byword for mindless slaughter and sacrifice in the mud, and the grinding attritional warfare and artillery duels conducted over a small land area sapped the British Army's morale (much like the concentration of artillery in the Donbass must be doing now).

The 100 Days Offensive is regarded as one of the greatest military achievements of the BEF, with morale so high that soldiers were willing to take near suicidal risks on a daily basis - casualty rates in 1918 were higher than in Flanders in 1917.

 

[Frosty]

Looks like a deliberate tactic to nullify the Russian superiority in artillery.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I don’t think the target is to match them in current Russian numbers. You can’t increase the UA artillery 15 fold. That would take a monumental effort from western militaries and significant Ukrainian manpower to train units knowledgeable enough to man and maintain them.

I think the target here is to increase numbers of course but mostly to tip the balance by providing more quality than quantity. And maybe by doubling UA artillery in the process, the ratio only changes from 15-to-1 to 8-to-1. But if their accuracy and range are superior they can shoot and scoot, shoot and scoot. Inflicting heavy losses, destroying morale and reducing the numerical advantage in the process. Meanwhile saboteurs work to destroy ammo depos and supply lines.

That’s exactly my point. No chance Ukraine will short term be able to match them, their aim will be to simply grind them to some kind of stalemate. Hence why the rainy season kind of helps Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor here.

 

[TMDaines]

 

[the hea]

Multiple Russian ammunition depots going up in flames every night now and more M142s and M270s are on the way.

 

[Frosty]

Thread on Ukrainian losses and falling morale in the Donbass:

 

[Simbo]

I was one of the ones that believed the media. I really thought that it would be a walk for ukranians even with a chance to dispute crimea

Sadly it seems they can't win this. The only one that seems that can is russia. But probably not even them in the long run

Don’t give up just yet, it’s took the Russians two months throwing everything they have on one front, after retreating from everywhere else, to finally make a bit of progress, at god only knows what cost.

These deserted towns of rubble don’t really gain them anything strategically. As much as can be said for some media over hyping Ukraines chances after their successes, the same can be said here.

On another note…HIMARS go brrrrr. It doesn’t appear these things have been overhyped at all.

 

[shamans]

There will always be some, but collectively, the Ukrainians are light years ahead of the Russians in the morale department, which wont be insignificant as the war grinds on.

Thread on Ukrainian losses and falling morale in the Donbass:

I don't know why people bother trying to understand if the morale is high or low. Our guess is as good as any really. I also don't think it matters so much in modern warfare. The technology is so high the man behind the machine hardly matters unless they are completely demoralized or something.

 

[the hea]

 

[Enigma_87]

What works in the Ukrainian favor is they have an endless supply of arms from the west, along with pretty solid morale. Both things the Russians don't have the luxury of.

Problem is - the war is on Ukrainian territory. Putin doesn’t care what number of casualties he will throw in, whilst with the war going on it’s pretty normal many more to try to get far away from the natives.

 

[Raoul]

I don't know why people bother trying to understand if the morale is high or low. Our guess is as good as any really. I also don't think it matters so much in modern warfare. The technology is so high the man behind the machine hardly matters unless they are completely demoralized or something.

Not only does it matter, it can be pivotal in how a war is executed. Much of the fighting on the eastern front is in close quarters - town by town, street by street. Ukrainians motivated to fight and die to protect their country is therefore far more powerful than Russian kids being threatened with jail if they don't want to fight in a foreign country on Putin's behalf. The intercepts of Russians moaning to their families only reinforces this.

 

[shamans]

Not only does it matter, it can be pivotal in how a war is executed. Much of the fighting on the eastern front is in close quarters - town by town, street by street. Ukrainians motivated to fight and die to protect their country is therefore far more powerful than Russian kids being threatened with jail if they don't want to fight in a foreign country on Putin's behalf. The intercepts of Russians moaning to their families only reinforces this.

The tweet above contradicts what you're saying. Yeah motivation is used as a tool in war and believing the enemy is demoralized is one of the war propaganda tools currently being used by both sides right now but it's pointless to speculate if you want an accurate answer.

If all you subscribe to is one side of stories you are going to hear how the enemy is shattered right now. A few intercepts doesn't prove or disprove anything in army of thousands. There are similar reports about how volunteers that came to Ukraine are shocked to see how much of a mess it is (again by randos on twitter)

We can't know and I don't know on what basis you can conclude they are "light years ahead" in terms of morale.

 

[Frosty]

I don't know why people bother trying to understand if the morale is high or low. Our guess is as good as any really. I also don't think it matters so much in modern warfare. The technology is so high the man behind the machine hardly matters unless they are completely demoralized or something.

I think morale is an issue in the Donbass:



The soldiers are not yet getting the new weapons, and it is a slow, attritional fight, not marked by technology but by artillery. Flesh and bone against iron and steel. In that sense we haven't moved much in the last 100 years. Given the rate of deaths too (and those won't be caused by nice neat bullet wounds), and crucially the lack of rotation, then morale there would suffer.

Also the Battle for the Donbass has been going on for (I think) 76 days, longer than the Battle of Kursk and heading towards Monte Cassino and Anzio territory.

Morale is likely much higher on other fronts.

 

[Raoul]

The tweet above contradicts what you're saying. Yeah motivation is used as a tool in war and believing the enemy is demoralized is one of the war propaganda tools currently being used by both sides right now but it's pointless to speculate if you want an accurate answer.

If all you subscribe to is one side of stories you are going to hear how the enemy is shattered right now. A few intercepts doesn't prove or disprove anything in army of thousands. There are similar reports about how volunteers that came to Ukraine are shocked to see how much of a mess it is (again by randos on twitter)

We can't know and I don't know on what basis you can conclude they are "light years ahead" in terms of morale.

Ukrainians with sophisticated western weapons are the exception, not the norm. Much of the fighting still appears to be taking place with relatively low tech automatic weapons in short spaces, which is why the war has largely become one of very small gains for either side. The Ukrainians clearly have the upper hand in the morale department, which will begin to pay more dividends once they get fully trained up on the NATO weapons platforms.

 

[Raoul]

I think morale is an issue in the Donbass:



The soldiers are not yet getting the new weapons, and it is a slow, attritional fight, not marked by technology but by artillery. Flesh and bone against iron and steel. In that sense we haven't moved much in the last 100 years. Given the rate of deaths too (and those won't be caused by nice neat bullet wounds), and crucially the lack of rotation, then morale there would suffer.

Also the Battle for the Donbass has been going on for (I think) 76 days, longer than the Battle of Kursk and heading towards Monte Cassino and Anzio territory.

Morale is likely much higher on other fronts.

Not surprising given that the guy has apparently been in Donbas since 2014.

 

[shamans]

Ukrainians with sophisticated western weapons are the exception, not the norm. Much of the fighting still appears to be taking place with relatively low tech automatic weapons in short spaces, which is why the war has largely become one of very small gains for either side. The Ukrainians clearly have the upper hand in the morale department, which will begin to pay more dividends once they get fully trained up on the NATO weapons platforms.

Still have no idea how you are so sure of that.

 

[Raoul]

Still have no idea how you are so sure of that.

Perhaps you're applying morale to just the eastern front ? I'm looking at it collectively across the entire country. Ukrainian resolve to defend areas like Kyiv, Khakiv, Odesa, retake Kherson and other pockets in the south, would seem to be much stronger than that of Russian conscripts being involuntarily forced to fight a war they were lied to about (denazification) and would've had little interest in fighting in the first place. While its true, morale in Donbas will be naturally lower than in other parts, collectively, the Ukrainians will always have the upper hand against a disorganized invading force using its own conscripts as canon fodder, then denying to their families that they have died. That has a cumulative effect in how Russian kids look at fighting in Ukraine.

 

[4bars]

No one in this forum knows the morale of any of the army

Noo one knows what is the real losses of both armies.

No one knows how much military resources Russia has

No one knows how much effect the sanctions has on russia ( so far they made more money with gas/oil in 4 months than in 1 year)

If we learnt anything this las 4 months is that everything is pure speculation and the only truth is that ukrania had the upperhand the first 2 months and now is russiawho has the uperhand

 

[Organic Potatoes]

No one in this forum knows the morale of any of the army

Noo one knows what is the real losses of both armies.

No one knows how much military resources Russia has

No one knows how much effect the sanctions has on russia ( so far they made more money with gas/oil in 4 months than in 1 year)

If we learnt anything this las 4 months is that everything is pure speculation and the only truth is that ukrania had the upperhand the first 2 months and now is russiawho has the uperhand

You don’t know that.

 

[4bars]

You don’t know that.

True. Again pure speculation

 

[shamans]

No one in this forum knows the morale of any of the army

Noo one knows what is the real losses of both armies.

No one knows how much military resources Russia has

No one knows how much effect the sanctions has on russia ( so far they made more money with gas/oil in 4 months than in 1 year)

If we learnt anything this las 4 months is that everything is pure speculation and the only truth is that ukrania had the upperhand the first 2 months and now is russiawho has the uperhand

Right, but it's not like we know nothing at all. You can look at things with skepticism and make your mind about it.

Single accounts of soldiers to conclude morale is silly as well as a lot of the tweets making the rounds. What we can say is Russia has suffered more losses than they would want. We really can't say who is "winning" since that depends on what our definition of winning is.

 

[Simbo]

 

[frostbite]

https://www.politico.eu/article/emm...ir-putin-russia-diplomacy-france-documentary/

Inside Emmanuel Macron’s failed one-man diplomacy mission on Ukraine

A behind-the-scenes documentary on Macron’s diplomatic efforts to stop the war in Ukraine exposes diplomatic failures and a hyper-personalized approach to foreign policy.

 

[Frosty]

Zelensky must be loving UK politics. Every time Johnson has a scandal, more support and arms are funnelled to Ukraine.

 

[Raoul]

Right, but it's not like we know nothing at all. You can look at things with skepticism and make your mind about it.

Single accounts of soldiers to conclude morale is silly as well as a lot of the tweets making the rounds. What we can say is Russia has suffered more losses than they would want. We really can't say who is "winning" since that depends on what our definition of winning is.

Given that Putin attempted regime change by attacking Kyiv, then promptly withdrew when he realized he couldn't succeed, its not particularly hard to see which side has had the upper hand given the Russian/Ukrainian capability and resource disparity going into the war.

 

[shamans]

Given that Putin attempted regime change by attacking Kyiv, then promptly withdrew when he realized he couldn't succeed, its not particularly hard to see which side has had the upper hand given the Russian/Ukrainian capability and resource disparity going into the war.

If that was Putin's initial goal, and I agree it probably was, it's definitely a failure. Some people might say the goal was always just to take the Donbas, in which case it isn't. I personally think Russia failed its primary objective and settled for an easier task which they are succeeding it.

 

[Raoul]

If that was Putin's initial goal, and I agree it probably was, it's definitely a failure. Some people might say the goal was always just to take the Donbas, in which case it isn't. I personally think Russia failed its primary objective and settled for an easier task which they are succeeding it.

If it was just to take Donbas, he would've just attacked Donbas and applied all his resources there. He clearly miscalculated wildly, probably because he was mislead by his military commanders who didn't want to be the bearers of bad news that Russia couldn't take all of Ukraine. Putin therefore probably had his eyes on the entire country since decapitating the Zelenskyy government in Kyiv, would've been tantamount to taking all of Ukraine since all Ukrainian military actions throughout the rest of the country couldn't function without centralized command and control and a unified strategy. The Russians obviously miscalulated and wildly underestimated Ukrainian resolve to defend their country (aka morale).

 

[shamans]

If it was just to take Donbas, he would've just attacked Donbas and applied all his resources there. He clearly miscalculated wildly, probably because he was mislead by his military commanders who didn't want to be the bearers of bad news that Russia couldn't take all of Ukraine. Putin therefore probably had his eyes on the entire country since decapitating the Zelenskyy government in Kyiv, would've been tantamount to taking all of Ukraine since all Ukrainian military actions throughout the rest of the country couldn't function without centralized command and control and a unified strategy. The Russians obviously miscalulated and wildly underestimated Ukrainian resolve to defend their country (aka morale).

Sounds good for a movie, but reality is they underestimated the western worlds response and support of Ukraine. Everyone had enough of Putin's pattern of transgression and backed Ukraine with aid, volunteers and intel holding Putin off.

 

[MadMike]

Zelensky must be loving UK politics. Every time Johnson has a scandal, more support and arms are funnelled to Ukraine.

He probably hopes BoJo gets caught receiving a BJ from Laura Kuenssberg on live TV. He might even get direct UK involvement in the war as part of the effort to deflect.

 

[Raoul]

Sounds good for a movie, but reality is they underestimated the western worlds response and support of Ukraine. Everyone had enough of Putin's pattern of transgression and backed Ukraine with aid, volunteers and intel holding Putin off.

The western world's response would be inclusive of the Ukrainian response since the Ukrainian government were well on their way to allying with NATO. This has only amplified and strengthened Ukrainian resolve to fight and win. Even if Putin takes a few towns here and there in Donetsk, the fact that he will run out of resources suggests none of his post 24 Feb gains will be preservable in the long run. His only hope at the moment is to decimate Ukraine as much as possible prior to the inevitable ceasefire that yields little to no new Russian territory in Ukraine.

 

[the hea]

 

[4bars]

Right, but it's not like we know nothing at all. You can look at things with skepticism and make your mind about it.

Single accounts of soldiers to conclude morale is silly as well as a lot of the tweets making the rounds. What we can say is Russia has suffered more losses than they would want. We really can't say who is "winning" since that depends on what our definition of winning is.

Well, with all the propaganda and the fog of war we basically don't know much

I heard that putting is sick but there he is

The morale. no way to know

There is only reports of the russian losses, not ukranian and specially percentage, not absolute that is what we get

And so on. It had been a propaganda war from the start but now it fade out and we could see in many ways that it had been plenty of speculation and that we don't know much in reality.

As you said, is not that we know nothing at all, but we know very little and in this thread it seems that people talks with the certainty of information like they are in the zelensky and putin briefing rooms 3 minutes before posting

Basically I am pissed that I had been so gullible and believe so many things that had been told at the beginning of the war

 

[shamans]

Well, with all the propaganda and the fog of war we basically don't know much

I heard that putting is sick but there he is

The morale. no way to know

There is only reports of the russian losses, not ukranian and specially percentage, not absolute that is what we get

And so on. It had been a propaganda war from the start but now it fade out and we could see in many ways that it had been plenty of speculation and that we don't know much in reality.

As you said, is not that we know nothing at all, but we know very little and in this thread it seems that people talks with the certainty of information like they are in the zelensky and putin briefing rooms 3 minutes before posting

Basically I am pissed that I had been so gullible and believe so many things that had been told at the beginning of the war

I get where you're coming from. I used to follow wars on Twitter back from the war in Syria days to war in Afghanistan. Usually, most on twitter just don't know what they're on about.

 

[ThierryFabregas]

Well, with all the propaganda and the fog of war we basically don't know much

I heard that putting is sick but there he is

The morale. no way to know

There is only reports of the russian losses, not ukranian and specially percentage, not absolute that is what we get

And so on. It had been a propaganda war from the start but now it fade out and we could see in many ways that it had been plenty of speculation and that we don't know much in reality.

As you said, is not that we know nothing at all, but we know very little and in this thread it seems that people talks with the certainty of information like they are in the zelensky and putin briefing rooms 3 minutes before posting

Basically I am pissed that I had been so gullible and believe so many things that had been told at the beginning of the war

Yes there is propganda on both sides. But you're wrong that there isn't reports of Ukrainian losses. There are and they are very high in total and at a very high daily rate. Russian losses are significantly higher from my understanding because fighting a defensive war is less risky than an offensive war.

The theory has been that Ukraine should be able to push Russian troops back with more advanced artillery that is starting to be deployed in combat. We'll have to see if this has any merit in the next few months.

 

[Krakenzero]

What we do know IMO:

-The invasion of Kyiv (biggest city) failed.
-The invasion of Kharkiv (2nd biggest) failed.
-There's currently a blockade in Odessa (3rd biggest, main port).
-The invasion of Luhansk is succeeding.
-The invasion of Donetsk is in progress, no clear result yet.

Therefore, the success of the operation depends on where the goalposts are. If we consider the initial demands, Russia is failing. If we consider a new, more reduced approach, they could be succeeding. For now.