Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Raoul]

The whole East was pro-Russian at least to some extent before 2014. What happened after that had significantly upped the stakes — most of those who ended up on the Ukrainian side got, well, disillusioned with their neighbor (while those who found themselves in Peoples Republics of Donetsk & Lugansk often got radically anti-Ukrainian).

I’d expect that the return to the borders of pre-February the 24th is the only deal that Ukraine can possibly take. The country and people have never been united like they are now and they’re not going to leave their people (those who have lived & identified as Ukrainians pre-invasion) under the Russian rule. It’s going to be a defeat to them.

Although the east was ethnically and culturally Russian, there was little to no secessionist sentiment there. As in, they wanted to proceed as Ukrainian nationals and continue developing the country. It wasn't until Putin started fomenting chaos in Crimea, then Donbas in 2014 that sentiment began to waiver a bit.

 

[shamans]

The whole East was pro-Russian at least to some extent before 2014. What happened after that had significantly upped the stakes — most of those who ended up on the Ukrainian side got, well, disillusioned with their neighbor (while those who found themselves in Peoples Republics of Donetsk & Lugansk often got radically anti-Ukrainian).

I’d expect that the return to the borders of pre-February the 24th is the only deal that Ukraine can possibly take. The country and people have never been united like they are now and they’re not going to leave their people (those who have lived & identified as Ukrainians pre-invasion) under the Russian rule. It’s going to be a defeat to them.

I've been hearing that as well, but recently I am hearing from some outlets that Ukraine's own population would rather go for an end to this at some cost. How true would you say that sentiment is?

 

[Cheimoon]

Sorry I meant EU. Anyways, what is the general sentiment in those countries towards their govt. being against Ukraine joining EU? I thought Germany and France were the ones who were being weak on Ukraine but it seems like Netherlands, Denmark etc. are getting a free pass from the press. I know due process matters but Ukraine will have to be built from ground up after this so, not sure why they are being so pedantic about everything.

I think in the Netherlands, there is a lot of sympathy for the current plight of Ukraine (and to support their war effort) - but that's not the same as supporting Ukrainian EU membership. There is a strong sentiment there that eastern European EU countries are being costly to western Europe and don't always fit EU values (in reference to developments in Poland and Hungary, or levels of corruption in Romania and Bulgaria), and people won't want to add to that by having Ukraine brought in premarturely (before they meet membership criteria). There's also a bit of xenophonia, where eastern Europeans are often seen as different from western Europeans (a lingering Cold War sentiment?). Those are not new sentiments, and the Dutch government parties really won't lose votes over vetoing things in this regard.

How did Hungary manage to get into the EU?
Were they so different when they joined or were the prerequisites not as hard?

I think over the years a fair few countries have sneaked in that technically didn't meet the criteria but yes their current president has eroded and corrupted their democracy to a great degree using similar tactics to the likes of Putin and Boris.

I think that, previously, there was more of a sentiment that the EU is a pan-European movement to bring all of Europe together, and build up everyone to western European levels of wealth. I think some eastern European countries were let in with that sentiment - and I think that has diminished after it turned out progress wasn't as quick as hoped (see my examples above), leading to a more strict and lower entry process. Hence countries like Montenegro taking a while now to get in at all. (From Wikipedia: "Montenegro officially applied to join the EU on 15 December 2008, and membership negotiations beginning on 29 June 2012. With all the negotiating chapters opened, the country enjoys a widespread support among EU members' officials, and accession of the country to the EU is considered possible by 2025.")

 

[calodo2003]

Until the political system in the US is changed, all presidencies will be exactly the same.

What we see right now with Biden will be the best we will have unfortunately, Republicans can make it far, far worse.

 

[harms]

Although the east was ethnically and culturally Russian, there was little to no secessionist sentiment there. As in, they wanted to proceed as Ukrainian nations and continue developing the country. It wasn't until Putin started fomenting chaos in Crimea, then Donbas in 2014 that sentiment began to waiver a bit.

Good point and yeah, I agree. Despite them being pro-Russian I don't think that the idea of leaving Ukraine/becoming independent/joining Russia was prominent there, it was about having closer cultural/economical/political ties with Russia while remaining a part of Ukraine.

 

[tomaldinho1]

To say this for the millionth time, Modi doesn't have that clout with Moscow and India is dependent on Russian military supplies and maintenance to defend against China due to the situation in the Cold War. That's why you haven't heard any pressure from the West towards India throughout this crisis and, if anything, Western cooperation with India has increased during the war. The long term goal would be for India to produce more weapons domestically and diversify their stockpiles with Western countries to strengthen their resiliency in these sorts of crises.

It was a hypothetical scenario and I did caveat it with ‘potentially’.

 

[harms]

I've been hearing that as well, but recently I am hearing from some outlets that Ukraine's own population would rather go for an end to this at some cost. How true would you say that sentiment is?

I can't speak for them, obviously, but from what I generally hear from Ukrainians, Ukrainian journalists & other people currently in Ukraine they're still very much in the fight to the death stage. Mostly for a simple reason that if they don't have their bright and highly symbolic victory (taking everything back to pre-24.02 is the very least they can do), they feel like Russia will step back, lick their wounds and come again — all while continuing to support the slowly-burning conflict on the border, just like they did since 2014. They simply can't trust Russia to keep any kind of a deal while it's still the same Russia — with the same people in power & with the same military strength.

And, again, from what I've heard from Ukrainians on the matter, most of them are absolutely furious at any suggestions that they should compromise/help Putin to save his face etc., especially when they're coming from the outside.

 

[Simbo]

Its frustrating how the phrase "pro-Russian" is almost universally used as if it means "happy to be invaded by and annexed by Russia".

Its a ridiculous notion. I'm yet to see evidence any significant amount of people held such views prior to 2014, in the east, in Crimea, or anywhere.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

This was 2015/16. In America though. So it's possible she wasnt the voice of the locals. You would know more, but I am wary of western propaganda when it comes to wars on that the "locals" want. From my own research it seems there is or at least was some pro russian sentiment in the region and mix it win the propaganda.

In North America there's a long held stereotype that Ukrainians are stupid. You might have noticed it when you were in Winnipeg as it's prominent among non-Ukrainians in the Canadian prairies and the midwestern US states. I wonder if that influenced her declaration of ethnicity?

 

[shamans]

Its frustrating how the phrase "pro-Russian" is almost universally used as if it means "happy to be invaded by and annexed by Russia".

Its a ridiculous notion. I'm yet to see evidence any significant amount of people held such views prior to 2014, in the east, in Crimea, or anywhere.

Not that its evidence but the discussion in this thread does suggest prior to 2014 there have been pro-russian locals. Not sure why you find it so ridiculous

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

So essentially you want a direct war between nuclear powers? Because that is what would happen.

Better try gambling than letting tens or hundreds of millions of people die from starvation. You show strength now, you force your enemy to stand down instead of letting him become greedier. And besides, all of those lessons from military exercises from Western powers on maintaining freedom of navigation near Chinese waters better be put to use here. Warships should be protecting that sea corridor for Ukrainian grain to get out.

And, no, Putin does not deserve an off-ramp nor anything that would save his face. What he does here by witholding grain is just another type of scorched earth policy that fecks up the world.

 

[mckenzie79]

See above. The line was drawn. Beyond this point, we can decide to punish Russia with attacking them directly but more war is not worth it. Putin is on his back and I really think he just needs a face saving. If you corner a mad dog he will bite you in the process of killing himself.

You're calling for direct military attacks against Russia. That is an act of war, it will start a nuclear war. If you don't prefer nuclear war to the current situation, why are you calling for actions that are mutually understood to mean nuclear war?

Unfortunately Russia and Putin doesn't see it like this, you are looking at it from a purely Western, can't we all just get along perspective. Why should Ukraine and the brave ukrainian citizens give anything up to Russia, because in 5-10 years they'll come again. Its the long game for Russia. Chechenya, Georgia & Ukraine are part of a much bigger plan. They've threatened Sweden, Moldova, Finland, it won't stop. Once people get their heads around this it'll be easier to understand why, as a parent, is rather us all deal with Russia now then let our children deal with them.

People say an attack on Russians is an act of war, well I say they aren't in Russia, no one is invading Russia, just defending Europe and Ukraine.

We can't let Russia do what they want for infinity because they have nukes. No one thought they'd attack a European country, yet they did & no one did anything. No one thought they'd annex Crimea and manage to shoot down a PASSENGER PLANE in the process, but they did and no-one did anything. They levelled Georgia and Chechnya, and no one did anything. They committed atrocities in Syria and Africa, no-one did anything. Russia is blocking food supplies to the entire world, no one is doing anything.

If Russia leave enough time between each act, everyone turns and says 'nows not the time, leave them with it. They've got nukes so.....it is whoever they're currently invadings problem. In the end, every small country becomes Russian, Russia is bigger, the threat becomes bigger.

Sometimes you just have to say enough is enough, draw a line and set a deadline for retreat, or else Nato ( with every member increasing military spending ) will send every plane, ship and soldier to destroy whoever is left in Ukraine. Russia understands violence and strength, not democracy and negotiation. It needs lead time, but in the end, to save future generations the same fate, our kids at the end of the day, we have to do it.

Russia will not stop.

 

[harms]

Its frustrating how the phrase "pro-Russian" is almost universally used as if it means "happy to be invaded by and annexed by Russia".

Its a ridiculous notion. I'm yet to see evidence any significant amount of people held such views prior to 2014, in the east, in Crimea, or anywhere.

In Crimea — going by my personal first hand experience — the notion of rejoining Russia, one way or another, was always present. There's a lot of the grass is greener on the other side sentiment to it though — especially with Sevastopol hosting the Russian Black Sea fleet and a considerable Russian army contingent there being well-paid by the standards of the city. So they didn't really see any of the downsides that you see when you're actually in it but they saw all the bonuses + the idea of the historical wrong being done right etc. It would've been really interesting to have a proper survey that would ask Crimean people what they think of joining Russia now, 8 years later.

As for the same sentiment in Donbas — I don't think that it's been there, really. Donbas was Ukrainian for way longer than Crimea and there were many spells when Donbas was actually the most important political region in the inner-Ukrainian political battles (while Crimea always found itself to be isolated & not treated well enough).

 

[Krakenzero]

We're living the alternative right now. Do you prefer a nuclear war to this?

I'd say ukranians are living the alternative. We aren't.

 

[Simbo]

Not that its evidence but the discussion in this thread does suggest prior to 2014 there have been pro-russian locals. Not sure why you find it so ridiculous

I'm pro-Ireland, I want want Manchester to become part of Ireland. ...Wait, actually that's a bad example.

I'm pro-France, love the country, have friends and family that live there, etc. I don't want Manchester to be part of France, would resist any rhetoric pushing us that way and certainly am a few country miles from wanting them to stage an armed invasion to take over us. I'd just move there if I loved it that much.

Its as ridiculous as suggesting language used is also grounds for hostile takeover.

 

[stevoc]

It will not keep getting worse. Russia could not invade Kiev for instance and unity of NATO powers and aid to ukraine blocked them in what otherwise would be a take over of Ukraine. Putin was pushed back. Now, he needs face saving (as does Zelensky). Cede Donbas and/or Crimea to Russia with a bridge on it or something and end the war. Russia suffered. Them getting a hold of pro russian regions does not give them the indication they can do what they want.

So I really don't get the logic that peace at this stage will show Putin he can do what he want. He absolutely did not do what he wanted.

If they come out of this war having taken over 20-25% of Ukraine's territory then it would seem like they can co whatever they want. If they can just decide to launch an invasion on a neighbour and take part of their land. What stops Russia regrouping and rearming and doing the same 4-5 years down the line?

Let's not forget they took part of Georgia a decade ago and annexed Crimea 7 years ago now they want Donbas. Which country/region is next?

No I against the West intervening directly but at this stage I feel Nato have to keep arming and training Ukraine until Russia are pushed out of Ukraine completely.

 

[Simbo]

Nice shot.

 

[NotThatSoph]

I'd say ukranians are living the alternative. We aren't.

I'm pretty sure we're not living in a nuclear war, no.

 

[DT12]

Biden is quite terrible. Imagine how bad the other candidate was if he lost to freakin Joe Biden!

I used to be a fan of Biden but it really is turning out to just be "better than Trump" and nothing else. Donating a further billion to the war when shit is hitting the fan here is none sense. Just controlled by military economy.

Just to be clear about this underlined point, what Biden announced earlier this week isn't a "further billion", it's dipping into the 40 billion dollars that Congress approved last month (I swear to God more misconceptions have been made about this vaunted "40 billion to Ukraine!" than anything else in this war). They - the Pentagon and the State Department - are being careful and deliberate with it because they've said that the 40 billion has to last Ukraine for the next 5 months. This latest package that 'Biden' (more exactly Austin) announced is designed to stall Russia while they train up new battalions in Poland and Germany on the equipment due to enter the arena in July. Point being it's not a 'further' billion, it's 1 of the 'old' 40.

 

[Krakenzero]

I'm pretty sure we're not living in a nuclear war, no.

The opposite alternative to a nuclear war is appeasement. What Ukraine is living right now are the consequences of it. We non-ukranians are just not there yet.

 

[Gehrman]

The opposite alternative to a nuclear war is appeasement. What Ukraine is living right now are the consequences of it. We non-ukranians are just not there yet.

We aren't appeasing Russia. We are funding Ukraine with money, aid, weapons and Intel and imposing severe sanctions on Russia.

 

[NotThatSoph]

The opposite alternative to a nuclear war is appeasement. What Ukraine is living right now are the consequences of it. We non-ukranians are just not there yet.

What you're saying is that if the West continues spending an almost unheard of amount of resources on supporting Ukraine, prolonging what would have been a certain Russian victory into a crippling war with an uncertain outcome for an already economically weak Russia, we'll soon live in a Russia occupied world? They'll march on Poland, Germany, Japan, the US, Ethiopia, Bangladesh?

 

[Zehner]

See above. The line was drawn. Beyond this point, we can decide to punish Russia with attacking them directly but more war is not worth it. Putin is on his back and I really think he just needs a face saving. If you corner a mad dog he will bite you in the process of killing himself.

That's not what dogs do. This being said, your opinion on this whole matter sucks and I hope it remains a minority in the US.

 

[Gehrman]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[shamans]

That's not what dogs do. This being said, your opinion on this whole matter sucks and I hope it remains a minority in the US.

You are not experienced with dogs then. That's what causes most dog bite injuries. Being cornered with no escape route and no option but bite.

My opinion is 100% not a minority at this point a lot of people would want to see some form of settlement and improvement in oil prices.

 

[shamans]

Just to be clear about this underlined point, what Biden announced earlier this week isn't a "further billion", it's dipping into the 40 billion dollars that Congress approved last month (I swear to God more misconceptions have been made about this vaunted "40 billion to Ukraine!" than anything else in this war). They - the Pentagon and the State Department - are being careful and deliberate with it because they've said that the 40 billion has to last Ukraine for the next 5 months. This latest package that 'Biden' (more exactly Austin) announced is designed to stall Russia while they train up new battalions in Poland and Germany on the equipment due to enter the arena in July. Point being it's not a 'further' billion, it's 1 of the 'old' 40.

$40 billion is a lot of money

 

[The Firestarter]

You are not experienced with dogs then. That's what causes most dog bite injuries. Being cornered with no escape route and no option but bite.

My opinion is 100% not a minority at this point a lot of people would want to see some form of settlement and improvement in oil prices.

Yeah a lot of people are materialistic egotists that much is true.

 

[Kentonio]

You are not experienced with dogs then. That's what causes most dog bite injuries. Being cornered with no escape route and no option but bite.

My opinion is 100% not a minority at this point a lot of people would want to see some form of settlement and improvement in oil prices.

Except in this situation the dog is already running wild and biting everyone. A settlement just gives it the opportunity to have a nap and a snack before the next round of biting commences.

 

[stevoc]

You are not experienced with dogs then. That's what causes most dog bite injuries. Being cornered with no escape route and no option but bite.

My opinion is 100% not a minority at this point a lot of people would want to see some form of settlement and improvement in oil prices.

Who the feck corners an aggressive dog?

 

[Stookie]

Who the feck corners an aggressive dog?

Dog wardens

 

[Gehrman]

Dog wardens

Or people who are mean to dogs

 

[Beans]

That's not what dogs do. This being said, your opinion on this whole matter sucks and I hope it remains a minority in the US.

I wouldn't worry about too many people seeing things the way shamans does.

 

[Zehner]

You are not experienced with dogs then. That's what causes most dog bite injuries. Being cornered with no escape route and no option but bite.

My opinion is 100% not a minority at this point a lot of people would want to see some form of settlement and improvement in oil prices.

I'm sure Ukraine is sorry for the inconveniences it caused you with their suffering. How rude of them.

Jokes aside, why am I not surprised that you hold such an opinion?

 

[shamans]

Who the feck corners an aggressive dog?

Literally most of the incidents of dog suffered injuries. Anxious or aggressive dogs don't have an escape route.

Yeah a lot of people are materialistic egotists that much is true.

You really think it's just an inconvenience to some?

 

[shamans]

I'm sure Ukraine is sorry for the inconveniences it caused you with their suffering. How rude of them.

Jokes aside, why am I not surprised that you hold such an opinion?

I'm also not surprised youre sheltered enough to think the energy crises is just an inconvenience.

 

[Zehner]

I'm also not surprised youre sheltered enough to think the energy crises is just an inconvenience.

Yeah, what's dying compared to increasing oil and gas prices. You're the true hero in this story, don't let anybody tell you the opposite. The sovereignty of democracies is important , but I'm sure we all agree it shouldn't be too costly.

Let's be honest, you're tribal, superficial and only think of the short term. Exactly how you conduct yourself regarding other topics as well. Just what the world needs: More ignorant privileged people who think their wealth is more important than other people's lifes.

 

[shamans]

Yeah, what's dying compared to increasing oil and gas prices. You're the true hero in this story, don't let anybody tell you the opposite. The sovereignty of democracies is important , but I'm sure we all agree it shouldn't be too costly.

Let's be honest, you're tribal, superficial and only think of the short term. Exactly how you conduct yourself regarding other topics as well. Just what the world needs: More ignorant privileged people who think their wealth is more important than other people's lifes.

Keyboard warrior 101. Don't see you going to the front lines and volunteering. Or it doesn't matter to you because it's people you don't know who are dying ?

For many like yourself this is no more than a game of COD. All fun and games to strategize about war but zero idea about it

 

[The Firestarter]

Keyboard warrior 101. Don't see you going to the front lines and volunteering. Or it doesn't matter to you because it's people you don't know who are dying ?

For many like yourself this is no more than a game of COD. All fun and games to strategize about war but zero idea about it

This post is like a quick reference on the most common logical fallacies .

 

[stevoc]

Dog wardens

Yeah but they have protective clothing and training and shit.

Are you a Dog Warden @shamans ?