I go by what information (Statistical) actually exists and not by false assumptions that one or two eye-witnesses can tell me the truth of a macro economic situation.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I don't think it will "collapse". Economic collapse is incredibly rare, even Greece austerity wasn't really a collapse. Argentina is a collapse.
What I think will happen is that in the medium term atleast, there will be stagnation/hard recession.
We don't agree on this but it is at least very rational.
I’m pretty sure Russians are consoled by the fact a clueless guy from Ireland believes they’re top6, about to reach top4, in quality of life. They’re people with great sense of humor so I’m sure they’d have a good laugh
Explain how it will grow?
Once the war is over, all the military investments will cease (it has to, Russia doesn't have the debt financing options the West has nor the credit rating), thats a huge shrink in the economy right there.
Coupled with already long term lack of private sector investment and DFI, the standard macro-economic indicators for long term growth, I see no viable way for Russia to grow rapidly in its post war economic circumstance unless the USA just decides "We're going to give you our business." and completely lifts sanctions.
That's the only way out. Even then, the short term military investment cuts will cause a recession.
Jesus man, if you or @neverdie believe a strong GDP means Russia's economy is growing, I'm not going to waste any time on you. That's just brain dead dumb, in my opinion.
By being completely oblivious to the context you miss out on fine details - the statistical data provided by Central Bank of Russia is bullshit. It’s not about one or two eye witnesses, but about being ridiculous thinking you know better than people in this threat who actually live there
Just like to point out that even post WWII USA in 1946, after stopping its military investments due to peacetime, had a massive recession despite its emergence as the unscathed world power.
It shrank by 11%
It's just unrealistic to expect a country that went into War Mode can just reshift its civilian economy back without a recession.
It shrank by 11%
It's just unrealistic to expect a country that went into War Mode can just reshift its civilian economy back without a recession.
IMF, etc., not Russia.
I expect massive Russian-US cooperation across all kinds of markets. Technology transfers in exchange for raw minerals (actual rare earth as well as a massive Russian market). It won't happen instantly, but I do expect a massive post-War dividend for Russia. I may well be wrong, but this is where I assume the growth comes (extra growth) as well as more integration with BRICS+ across the now expanded format. It's a powerhouse. Whether it performs that way or not is what we disagree on I think which seems fair.
If I'm wrong, then you have a point. But I see the US is already floating sanctions relief (whether the EU follows suit immediately or not is not that important, I think it will follow but later).
And you can call me crazy but I wouldn't rule out a Bering Strait proposal. It would make Russia and the US mutual gatekeepers of the world's largest economic transit system (dwarfing all economic pacts ever made in history). Now, if US has a 30% of opinion where Russia is the enemy (that's low) and maybe 70% where China is, in economic terms, at least, you see the possibilities.
Yes. Dont waste you time. Keep blabbling your opinion like a fews weeks back that russian economy is already done for it
The key is your last sentence. "...in my opinion"
0 fatcs
Even this will take time to implement. Lifting sanctions doesn't overcome the fact that Russia will have to go back to a peacetime economy, which will 100% result in a recession as the military spending stops.
Even the USA couldn't avoid this, Britain couldn't avoid this, Germany couldn't, Japan couldn't, Soviet Union couldn't.
Let's assume what you expect, a short-term recession during the pivot and transitional to a post-war boom. I think that's reasonable. I just don't think the hit, whether a year or three, is going to be massive in the face of positive market outlooks in the long-term. We almost agree I think.
As i said in the post that you quoted there are indicators that it shows that russian economy is healthy. As you point out, thr growth is based in military expenditure. Others might be the high interest rate and sure we can find others. But reality is that economy ia not collapsing and is not going anywhere in short term. Saying that russian economy is already collapsing or almost collapsing or that the economy will make russia stop the invasion anytime soon is wishfull thinking if we see the short term economic indicators
I wish it would collqpse. But is not happining anytime soon
And in 1947 shrunk -1 and in 1948 grew 4.1% griwing an average of 4% till 1973. I think putin would sign with close eyes this
Where we differ is I just don't see a long term boom.
The Europeans who were the primary Russian resource customers have already shifted their consumption base, infrastructure etc to accommodate for other suppliers and it makes no sense now to pivot back to Russian oil and gas.
The two years of complete stagnation of the civilian economy means that it will need to be rebuilt almost from scratch, in terms of the industries lost due to war-footing.
Your prediction hinges on so many things like Europe + USA completely opening up and relationships doing a complete 180 to what they formally are. Ultimately, my assessment of Russia's current state of the economy is based upon the current reality as opposed to trying to guess what the politics are in 3 years time.
Ultimately, if Europe + US decides feck it, bring Russia back into the fold, your prediction won't be that far off. But I just don't see how it's business as usual as so many bridges have been burnt over Ukraine. It takes years if not decades to build that trust back.
This is the key. What happens next.
ok now I know you're joking
Yeah, quality in life in Russia is really looking up Seriously though, you can't use IMF data in the context of Russia. They use the official statistics Russia publishes, they have to regardless of how manipulated they know the currency and rate of inflation is.
Also, what does PPP matter when you have to import half your goods and nobody will accept your currency because its actually worth nothing?
Yeah but Russia doesn't have a gigantic, rich, private civilian cash cow that the USA did in the late 40's.
The US was incredibly cash rich, Russia is not. The challenge for Russia is exponentially higher than USA 1945.
I agree. But you just gave a random data coming from 20% to shrink 11% in a complete different wqr and different geopolitical theater. So i dont know how we can predict the russian economy further then short term because russia is currently closer to get what it wants in ukraine, closer with china and india as customers and putin is already opening the doors to US companies and trump doing the 180 degrees that you are talking. Even i saw an outlandish tweet about North stream 2. Adf wins and anything goes
We can predict as much in medium long term but we dont know how iy will go because we are in the most unestablr times since the fall of the iron curtain. US europe lower than ever, US - russia to mend and being BFFF by 2026, China. fecking canada vs US! And others . Is nuts
None of us would put money in our own predictions.
But focusing in short term, that is what it trigger this last 2 pages, russia's economy is not faultering anytime soon
Seems obvious he means Zelensky.
The main issue is that you need to get updates and you need US contrators to do it, all those F35's the UK have, to get the data that the planes collect when used requires Lockheed-Martin to extract it, the MoD has to pay them to get it's own data - and that's just the start of it!
Right, and something people aren't accounting for is that there are multiple factors at play...
1) Lifting sanctions does not mean that western companies are going to suddenly embrace Russia and re-introduce themselves and invest again in Russia. Let's remember - sanctions didn't cause all those western companies to divest all their Russian interests - public pressure and bad press coverage did. At best, if a deal is agreed most western companies would take a "wait and see" approach.
2) Major investments - when it comes to major industrial, electronics, or petrochemical companies, the investment is huge and takes years to ramp up. This is something most people misunderstand about Trump and his tariffs... It would take years to build factories and re-staff them in the U.S. - and that's in the U.S. - where it's highly unlikely the U.S. government would seize the assets of many western companies who either sold off their assets at a loss - or just left - or had their assets seized by the Russian government and re-allocated or auctioned off.
3) The "Brain-Drain." Quite a few Russians emigrated from Russia and they aren't going back - either for fear of retribution or wrose fear of being conscripted and sent to the front to die. This will take a long time, and likely if relations were "normalized" there are probably quite a few Russians who would flee and leave and "wait and see".
4) Russia is a dodgy place with a dodgy justice system. Western business people will be very careful of actually travelling to Russia or agreeing to work there. Some of them just get thrown in prison as political prisoners. Dunno about you, but I'd be very reluctant to even travel there. I don't want to end up in a fecking Gulag for years, accused of being a "spy".
5) All of these hinge upon a cease-fire or peace that can be trusted. Trust is very hard to rebuild.
6) The transition to a "peacetime economy" will not happen suddenly - unless the Russians are really going to roll the dice. They have expended (read this as "got fecking blown up the Ukranians") a ton of military equipment - ships, tanks, helicopters, fighter bombers, APCs, munitions, etc. Some conservative estimates are that they've expended (again .... lost) almost 1/3 of their conventional forces. It is probably higher. To just fractionally replenish that, they will have to retain this war-time economy for awhile. To put this in perspective, conventionally (non-nuclear) - they actually need to rebuild a conventional deterrent. Not NATO, not the UK, not France, not Poland, not even the Baltics. The Russians do. The Russians just got their ass handed to them by Ukraine WORSE than the U.S. did in Vietnam, Afganistan, Iraq and Korea wars COMBINED. They've lost more men, had higher casualty rates, and have their conventional force structure decimated worse than the U.S. in all those conflicts combined and they did it in 3 short years. This is not a country you go to on a bended knee. The Russians can't start a second or third front, conventionally, against NATO. Unless NATO collapses or the Russians use nukes.
7) Post-war WW2 investment and economic shift isn't totally comparable, in some ways. Post WW2 - the U.S. was able to do something unheard of in history - pivot to rebuilding the domestic economy, fund the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe - despite colonialism falling for Britain, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, etc., the U.S. occupied and rebuilt Japan, rebuilt W. Germany, ramped up military spending and eventually fought the cold wars in Korea, Vietnam, etc. My goodness - even South Korea evolved into an economic powerhouse during this time. Russia really, simply can't do this. The closest comparison is indeed ... the Soviet Union. It totally collapsed - and now Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechia, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Armenia and almost every former USSR country is better off than Russia. Who is worse off? Belarus, Moldova, Latvia maybe...? Basically anyone who stayed close to Russia.
8) That's the point, to everyone in this thread thinks that Russia is so strong. They really aren't. Who has been better off siding with the Russians since WW2? Certainly not the Russian people. China - well it's debatable - but didn't they kind of go their own path? Serbia - we can talk about that all day, but... Cuba? Nicaragua? Angola?
9) So, if you really think about it, the Russians are on their ass, and the problem is ... Trump. For some bizarre reason, he thinks Russia and Putin are so great. That's the problem right now.
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Bit of a misleading headline. It's a proposal to seize it if Russia violates a potential future ceasefire.
What they should do is use the interest on the $300b (or whatever amount is controlled by the EU, not the US) to pay off EU member state costs for supporting Ukraine, as well as money that goes directly to Ukraine by way of existing weapons provided by EU states.
Thank you, some actual sober analysis.
Another potential wildcard apart from Trump N. Korea, who are also in this war against Ukraine, as crazy as that is. They are continuing to supply men and heavy weaponry and are a potential factor if Russia does want to escalate things and open another front. I'm not actually worried about them being able to occupy the Baltics or wherever, even before Europe 're-arms', just worried about good people that will suffer having to fend them off.
Genuinely must feel like an abusive relationship for the folk around him and Vance sometimes. One minute everything seems fine and the next, for no reason, you're public enemy number one and doing everything wrong.
Trump plays nice when Starmer is over, making it look like he's ready to greet Zelensky with open arms then, BAM, catches the guy off guard with a hostile argument started by his dickhead VP.
And now, today, after Zelensky doing absolutely everything possible these last couple of days to placate Trump short of getting on his knees and begging, only to be met with silence, he says one thing about the war being far from over and Trump responds by admonishing and insulting him.
Maybe that's what he wants? For the President of Ukraine, someone braver than any of those twats in that room the other day, a democratic ally of the US, to beg and plead for help stopping an authoritative asshole who wants to destabilise the West.
Interesting that this clip didn’t make it out the other day.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/B4vHbdGMOa
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/B4vHbdGMOa
Trump dropping military aid to Ukraine
Huh?
Is this referring to new aid or just a continuation of a previously congressionally approve aid package from the Biden administration?
-Edit, just read its the congressionally approved aid. Can he even do this wtf?
I dont know how are you surprised. He's basically the sovereign now.