I believe in his self preservation. He’s knows that would be the end of him and Russia as he knows it.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Yeah, he also promised to help decommunize Ukraine.
Oh yeah he will definitely integrate Belarus and Ukraine into the Federation before anything else. It's what might happen after that which is scary.
You reckon he will stop his armies at the borders and not demand that NATO retreat? I am less sure.
Unless I'm mistaken, he doesn't really need to annex Belarus. He more or less has Lukashenko in his pocket, there were even talks a few years ago of an official merging of Belarus into the Russian Federation!
This really isn't the thread for it but..... no, you're not.
"do you really think the west is going to war because of ukraine?" is not that different from "do you really think the west is going to war because of latvia?"
What's the definition of mainstream if the Jerusalem Post doesn't qualify?
Once he crosses a line and is getting severely sanctioned (as in sanctions that bring Russia to a screeching halt), there's no telling how we will react.
There could be a conflict of course - between NATO and Russia - now more than ever perhaps, but I don’t think it will be because the tanks are rolling into Riga.
Yep. The Nation is considered fairly left in the US - back when it was relevant at least.
Once there is direct conflict between NATO and Russia, whether at Riga or Vilnius or Krakow, its really bad news for the world.
He will probably react by turning to China and being in their pocket for God knows how long and with who knows which consequences. Russia has built up quite a considerable cash reserves, which won’t last, but will abate sanctions. After that who knows.
He’s a very harsh critic of Gorbachev, I know that but I’m not sure as to what his views are on Soviet communism and some decisions that were made back in the day.
But there is no infrastructure for Russia to export much of its gas/oil to China or elsewhere. It would take years to build it.
All of this is great for China btw, they get a distracted US and Putin who will be very eager to all kinds of "discounts"
Oh yeah Belarus is a vassal state but I wonder whether Lukashenko would feel safer being part of Russia. This is just conjuncture and frankly I don’t know much about it so I’ll just leave it here.
Both countries have enough manpower , it will get built faster than you think.
I mean that there is an aid package which China were offering Russia.
Probably will concede some Russian territory to China if push came to shove. Again this is just me plucking things out of thin air - I have no knowledge of this.
Don't think Lukashenko want to actually be part of Russia, because he then can be fired as a governor or whatever he will be called. The current state is ideal for him, but maybe without the giant Russian troop presence.
BBC: it's on.
He would be a president of a republic. I mean Kadyrov pretty much runs Chechnya as he wants, so why can’t Lukashenko without ever having to worry about a potential coup?
Because he might be fine now, but who knows what Putin will think 5 years from now, or what will happen after he kicks the bucket. For the coup - don't think Putin will allow it regardless of status of Belarus.
I'm waiting for a 'Here we go!' from Romano.
Honestly I was just thinking out loud. I’ve no idea on the matter really. All I know is that Belarus is no a defacto Russian state since the troops are there to stay indefinitely.
Or a ‘big day today.’
What people? Now there’s largely just pensioners and militias. Anyone with any future or options has long gone to either the rest of Ukraine, Europe or Russia depending on their connections and world outlook.
Without militias from Russia, there would be no Donetsk or Luhansk People’s Republic. The idea that these separatist states organically formed and represent the will of the populace there pre-2014 is just nonsense, even if the oblasts have a majority of Russian mother tongue speakers and people who generally look East. My mother-in-law is one of these people, but it doesn’t mean she doesn’t see herself as Ukrainian, nor does she want to wake up and find herself living in Russia.
Or a Not True
from Christian Falk. Equally valid confirmation.I can't believe this is really happening.
I just don't get how this could be beneficial to Putin and Russia in the long term.
It will only lead to other eastern and northern European countries to join the NATO asap and for many countries to strengthen their army and equipment.
And that's not even considering the human losses on Russian side, the cost for all this and the sanctions that will probably be very, very severe.
Does anybody have a good and logical reason for why this is happening?
I just don't get how this could be beneficial to Putin and Russia in the long term.
It will only lead to other eastern and northern European countries to join the NATO asap and for many countries to strengthen their army and equipment.
And that's not even considering the human losses on Russian side, the cost for all this and the sanctions that will probably be very, very severe.
Does anybody have a good and logical reason for why this is happening?
FFS mate, Russian TV can’t get more than a couple dozen people celebrating this evening’s news in the streets.
All predicted
They will probably have orders to kill him if Russian SF attempt to break him out which is what I think they will do in an event shortly before an all out war.
But if they retreat, they're never getting it back. See what happened in Georgia (and in fact keeps happening) or even their own Crimea.
Not that fighting back would make things better for Ukraine. They're well and truly fecked. We're back in pre-90s Europe, where neutrality didn't exist. (Except for Finland, but not sure if Putin would accept that for Ukraine.)
Time to change the thread title.
He just said he doesn't really consider it an independent nation. Couldn't be clearer actually.
Experts not buying that Putin is satisfied.
If I was hanging around outside your house with a baseball bat, threatening your family and every now and then lobbing a brick through a window, you’d probably want me punished before I kick the door in, take what I want from your home and hurt your family. The idea that Russia has done nothing worth punishing since 2014 is absolutely delusional.
They’re never getting it back now. Donbas and Lughansk are gone from Ukraine until there is a massive change in Russia and an acceptance of wrong doing - which could take decades.