Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Cassidy]

This here is why i'm glad Pakistan faced up to sanctions but never gave up on their nuclear weapons. If Ukraine had been a nuclear armed state, it's borders would have been safe.

Tend to agree, unfortunately. It's pretty silly to give up nuclear if you have it unless everyone is doing the same.

 

[Sarni]

I know it's a figure of speech, but I don't really find many parallels between the US and the Roman Empire. Sometimes I think people forget how short-lived was the US hegemony, in fact shorter than a life of a person if you assume it started after the II WW, some could say they were already the top dog and in a full imperial mode following the Spanish-American war. Looking at a bigger picture American hegemony was more of an exception rather than a norm, so a regression toward the mean was always expected. But I am a bit surprised that Americans capitulated so easily and that they managed to convince themselves they're so weak and poor that they need a major revolution and a complete shift of politics. If you told me a decade ago it would take expensive eggs and not the cheapest taxi for your burrito delivery to derail the most powerful nation in the world and if you told me that American would discard all the values they worshipped so easily, I definitely wouldn't believe that.

I said before that Republicans biggest success and this utterly baffles me is how they were able to convince an average American that their life was extremely tough and challenging.

 

[NLunited]

He did not get impeached for halting shipments. It was because he requested a quid pro quo from Zelensky.

That was the reason for halting the aid, which was illegal.

 

[ManUtd1999]

This here is why i'm glad Pakistan faced up to sanctions but never gave up on their nuclear weapons. If Ukraine had been a nuclear armed state, its borders would have been safe.

Good point.

Also, Obama should’ve brought them into NATO after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. He had time to do it before Trump took office (Almost 3 years).

 

[Cassidy]

Good point.

Also, Obama should’ve brought them into NATO after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. He had time to do it before Trump took office (Almost 3 years).

Somehow I don't think this would have ended well

 

[ManUtd1999]

I said before that Republicans biggest success and this utterly baffles me is how they were able to convince an average American that their life was extremely tough and challenging.

We are a country with so many capable people, but also a country with many many people with low levels of knowledge and education.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Good point.

Also, Obama should’ve brought them into NATO after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. He had time to do it before Trump took office (Almost 3 years).

That’s a quick way to speed run WWIII.

 

[Red Star One]

We are a country with so many capable people, but also a country with many many people with low levels of knowledge and education.

one could say a society with such huge inequalities despite having all the money in the world was always going to go tits up sooner or later. Completely unsustainable

 

[ManUtd1999]

Somehow I don't think this would have ended well

That’s a quick way to speed run WWIII.

No. Russia wouldn’t attack a NATO ally.

And, look where are now without Ukraine being part of NATO.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

No. Russia wouldn’t attack a NATO ally.

And, look where are now without Ukraine being part of NATO.

They would have attacked prior to Ukraine’s formal NATO accession. They weren’t shy about that.

 

[ManUtd1999]

They would have attacked prior to Ukraine’s formal NATO accession. They weren’t shy about that.

We don’t know that for sure. What we know for sure is that they ended up attacking Ukraine without being in NATO.

We chose not to “provoke” Putin, but he didn’t need any invitation.

 

[Red in STL]

Interesting. Thank you for explaining this.

It's 400 million quid - not sure how long the contract is - I had no idea about this until Rory Stewart mentiond it in a recent Rest is Politics podcast

 

[Cassidy]

No. Russia wouldn’t attack a NATO ally.

And, look where are now without Ukraine being part of NATO.

They wouldn’t make it to NATO before the attack

 

[Cassidy]

We don’t know that for sure. What we know for sure is that they ended up attacking Ukraine without being in NATO.

We chose not to “provoke” Putin, but he didn’t need any invitation.

We do know that for sure. And Putin was provoked (or given a reason to say he was provoked)

 

[Zehner]

We do know that for sure. And Putin was provoked

How so?

 

[Cassidy]

How so?

The US didn’t back down on Ukraine NATO membership. It was the excuse Putin needed. The US position was that Russia wouldn’t dare attack which was of course a stupid position to take

 

[Red Star One]

The US didn’t back down on Ukraine NATO membership. It was the excuse Putin needed

It's very naive to think Putin needed an excuse from the West to invade anyone. Was he also provoked to carry out ethnical cleansing of Georgians few years back? Was he provoked to screw the constitution and the whole nation by staying in power after exhausting his terms?

 

[Semper Fudge]

An awful lot of Russian apologism coming out of someone on this page.

 

[Cassidy]

It's very naive to think Putin needed an excuse from the West to invade anyone. Was he also provoked to carry out ethnical cleansing of Georgians few years back? Was he provoked to screw the constitution and the whole nation by staying in power after exhausting his terms?

Its also naive to think that it couldn't have been avoided.

 

[RedSky]

How many countries has Russia invaded since the 90s? Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine twice?

 

[Red Star One]

Its also naive to think that it couldn't have been avoided.

but what exactly and how could've been avoided? Georgian invasion? Avoided how, by handing over Osetia and Abkhazia? Ukraine invasion? Avoided how, if Ukrainians had nothing to say about their future and never revolted against Russian-owned oligarchs? Have some fecking respect for the people rather than spew this dismissive bullshit 'oh but you should've just accepted you're in the Russian sphere of influence so enjoy your corrupted countries and don't revolt', it's not only idiotic but deeply insulting for Ukrainians who in your eyes have no right to decide on their future.

 

[The Firestarter]

That was the reason for halting the aid, which was illegal.

Presidents have been halting deliveries of military aid all the time. Nobody has been impeached for this. The particular reason Trump got impeached was because he requested Zelensky come up with dirt against Biden (or his son).

 

[Cassidy]

but what exactly and how could've been avoided? Georgian invasion? Avoided how, by handing over Osetia and Abkhazia? Ukraine invasion? Avoided how, if Ukrainians had nothing to say about their future and never revolted against Russian-owned oligarchs? Have some fecking respect for the people rather than spew this dismissive bullshit 'oh but you should've just accepted you're in the Russian sphere of influence so enjoy your corrupted countries and don't revolt', it's not only idiotic but deeply insulting for Ukrainians who in your eyes have no right to decide on their future.

I was talking about the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US administration's position was that Russia would not invade, and so they disregarded the warnings
I think this could have been avoided personally, and no its not Ukraines fault its the US and also the EU in part too.

 

[Jotun]

I was talking about the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US administration's position was that Russia would not invade, and so they disregarded the warnings

No it wasn't. US and UK position was that Russia would invade, and repeatedly warned Ukraine. OTOH, Germany had its head stuck in sand.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60164537

 

[Cassidy]

No it wasn't. US and UK position was that Russia would invade, and repeatedly warned Ukraine. OTOH, Germany had its head stuck in sand.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/biden-ukraine-us-russian-invasion-winter-olympics

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60164537

I stand corrected

 

[Zehner]

Its also naive to think that it couldn't have been avoided.

The Russian propaganda machinery invented dozens of reasons for the invasion, from biological weapons over Ukranian Nazis to discrimination of Russians so every apologist could pick the excuse he liked best. You can't prevent Putin having excuses for his attack when he can just make those excuses up as he pleases.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[MTF]

I was talking about the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US administration's position was that Russia would not invade, and so they disregarded the warnings
I think this could have been avoided personally, and no its not Ukraines fault its the US and also the EU in part too.

What?! The same administration that seemingly bored the world to death with reports starting in late 2021 about Russian preparation for the invasion?! The same administration that sent its CIA Director to Moscow in late 2021 to tell Putin that they were aware of what he was planning? The same CIA Director that later went to Kyiv to relay the intelligence on the plan to take Hostomel airport and from the the capital?

I agree that deterrence failed, but I think it was due to not matching the correct prediction of an impending invasion, to more armament for Ukraine and more forceful threat of counter-actions by the US to such an invasion.

It's also so weak in general to just say "I think this could have been avoided" without ever stating the parameters and underlying logic of your claim. It's just an empty statement otherwise.

 

[Max_United]

The US didn’t back down on Ukraine NATO membership. It was the excuse Putin needed. The US position was that Russia wouldn’t dare attack which was of course a stupid position to take

Do you really think that EU and US saying „no NATO for Ukraine” would have averted the war? There is zero evidence to suggest that.

I mean Russia publicly and very clearly listed its demands before the war. Which were basically Ukraine becoming a pro-Russian puppet state (akin to Belarus) and all the NATO post-1997 expansion reversed (so Poland, the Baltics etc being kicked out of NATO somehow). Acceding to these demands would have of course theoretically averted the war but it was obviously impossible.

Putin would not be writing articles about „Russians and Ukrainians being one people“ if it was only about Ukraine’s NATO membership. And he would not have believed in verbal or written commitments from the West to not admit Ukraine anyway.

But you have to give it to him - he knows how to play naive westerners very well and make them think that „it is just about Ukraine’s NATO membership“ which sounds kind of „reasonable“ to some (although it still is not).

 

[Semper Fudge]

Do you really think that EU and US saying „no NATO for Ukraine” would have averted the war? There is zero evidence to suggest that.

I mean Russia publicly and very clearly listed its demands before the war. Which were basically Ukraine becoming a pro-Russian puppet state (akin to Belarus) and all the NATO post-1997 expansion reversed (so Poland, the Baltics etc being kicked out of NATO somehow). Acceding to these demands would have of course theoretically averted the war but it was obviously impossible.

Putin would not be writing articles about „Russians and Ukrainians being one people“ if it was only about Ukraine’s NATO membership. And he would not have believed in verbal or written commitments from the West to not admit Ukraine anyway.

But you have to give it to him - he knows how to play naive westerners very well and make them think that „it is just about Ukraine’s NATO membership“ which sounds kind of „reasonable“ to some (although it still is not).

What's happening with your quotation marks here?

 

[harms]

Good point.

Also, Obama should’ve brought them into NATO after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. He had time to do it before Trump took office (Almost 3 years).

Probably too late at that point. Especially since you can’t accept countries in NATO that currently have contested territories, I believe — and Crimea would’ve been one, unless Ukrainians would’ve been willing to trade it for NATO membership (they wouldn’t have and rightly so).