Yeah probably.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Possibly. Maybe Putin is waiting what sanctions the west will impose before making further decisions.
Oh man, that is gonna show the Russians. They will be dreading it.
The Security Council is by far the most useless organization ever. 15 people read a written statement, where for the most part it is saying that they support peace and international law. Then there is a vote which gets vetoed by US or Russia for anything that is a non-trivial issue.
This is pretty much the exact incursion I've expected for weeks.
I don't think he has the troops for much more than this currently. Perhaps he's waiting to see what public reaction is before mobilizing fully.
I don't think he has the troops for much more than this currently. Perhaps he's waiting to see what public reaction is before mobilizing fully.
"War does not determine who is right, only who is left." Bertrand Russell.
The cynic in me says this has been calibrated with Biden and Macron. Remember the weird thing we had from Biden weeks ago where he said an 'incursion was ok but a full invasion isn't' (which Blinken quickly walked back)
I agree with this and said as much although not as eloquently or succinctly.
Has them? There's 200k Russian troops surrounding Ukraine right now under the command of one, armed to the teeth and apparently on the verge of starting a massacre. An unprovoked bloodbath of proportions I'm having difficulty contemplating right now.
Then someone (not you) comes in this thread to point out their smart arse "facts" about how Ukraine has a few Nazi sympathisers fighting for it and starts the "both sides" bullshit. Its disturbing to say the least, especially from someone that should know better. I'm sorry for any Ukranians that may be on this forum.
Also sorry for restarting this conversation after it died but it took me ages to catch up on the thread and it was still bugging me.
Ukrainian ambassador to the UK did amazingly well to bite his tongue on Newsnight. Russia does all the disinformation it wants, yet the presenter provides the greatest challenge for the ambassador’s claim that Russian soldiers are already on Ukrainian soil.
The information war is well and truly lost.
The information war is well and truly lost.
I mean that would be something if US agreed to partition of Ukraine in essence whilst keeping Zelensky in the dark.
If serious sanctions will not follow through after this, it will demoralize Ukrainians more than anyone, it’s as if Munchen conference didn’t happen just few days ago. West inaction allows Putin to do whatever he feckin wants. I’m embarrassed so far by the reaction of so called western leaders.
I mean that Russia has definitely a far right neo nazi movement.
The thing is, whilst Ukraine remains a non-NATO member, what what would you like the western leaders to do? We might see tougher sanctions in the coming days, as well as disconnecting Russia from SWIFT, which would be quite a devastating economic blow to them.
If Putin was trying this on a NATO Baltic state, we'd see a far different reaction.
I hate to say I told you so. I don’t think Putin particularly cares about the sanctions - I think he actually believe that sanctions will come no matter what. I think he really believe that.
US embassy now withdrawing from Ukraine entirely. Gone from Kyiv to Lviv, now going to Poland. Right…
I'm sure, irrelevant though. Problem is the bossman seems to embrance the Nazi way, not sure why he gets away with just being called an autocrat.
It's probably the least indeed,but not only for Ukraine. Any cold war scenario would mean not only oil and gas shortage, but deficit in coal, iron and fertilizers.
Russia is also biggest importer in Ukraine(naturally) and after annexation of Crimea Ukraine economy shrank by 10-12% just over the course of the next year.
The biggest sanctions that the West might impose are only in that area otherwise a big economy war just after the pandemic would be a big clusterfeck.
Sanctions only in Donbas area would be a weak move from the West..
Okay thanks for explaining that to me. And lastly id be really surprised myself if the sanctions only applied to DNR and LNR — I’m sure more are being drawn up if they haven’t already.
Point is, a full NATO engagement means we all enter the uncharted waters of nuclear war, which would take just 10 minutes to terminate the world as we know it. A preliminary step is to know for sure (or pretty sure) where Putin is going to stop: the two regions… half Ukraine… all Ukraine… the three Baltic states… the iron curtain Eastern Europe? At which point the crossing goes ape and we all get fecked?
I'm guessing the markets will crash tomorrow based on the latest developments.
"You are hurt. Get to cover."
It’s already somewhat priced in at this point. They’ve already dipped a lot in recent weeks. Crypto markets today were a reasonable indicator that they shouldn’t nosedive too much further unless we get a real escalation of bloodshed.
Kin hell, that first dude. Hard drives definitely need checked there.
Yeah right , did you change your mind about by the end of the speech?
No why would I? I just posted a tweet pretty much saying that but in a much more intelligent way.
After the protests against the last electoral results in Belarus followed by repression just months ago, I was expecting a stronger form of resistance by the people to take place over there be it more protests or else. Belarussians must be hating the sight of foreign troops on their soil regardless right now.
Just to provide something that just came across my mind today, the last time history has shown a regime in such disarray that it used war upon a sensitive topic as means to fan the flames of nationalism, it was Argentina on the eve of the Falklands War. We all know how that one ended for Argentina and especially to the junta. That being said, has Putin fecked his own country up so hard in the last 2-3 years (economic stagnation, the pathetic response to COVID, people supporting alternatives like Navalny, etc.) that he has run out of ideas? Time will tell, but what is happening now is definitely not a sane man's decision.
This is why I'm for eliminating veto powers at the UN if it wants to have a future as the world's parliament. Otherwise, it deserves no other fate than the old League of Nations had.
I have to be honest and say if he really does not want NATO countries bordering Russia then invading a country that borders 4 NATO members seems a bit odd (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all in NATO I believe)... Or does he expect them to now all renounce membership?
Eh not really. Bitcoin is down 3.5% today and the futures currently indicate a 2% drop for American and Japanese markets at the open. European markets likely to tank even more tomorrow.
The only one holding the line recently is the UK FTSE. Probably because it is quite dependent on energy prices which are now skyrocketing even higher
TBH I think they will be saving this if Putin decides to further advance in Ukraine. The whole situation has been poorly handled by NATO ever since the Crimea got annexed 8 years ago. It was swept under the carpet.
Any severe sanctions at this point towards Russia essentially also kill off Ukraine's economy. It's an agricultural country as well, so when fertilizers and energy go up, on top of the brink of invasion and still recovering from pandemic situation would be too much to handle. Might go on and start a civil war in both sides of the border(Russia and Ukraine). This would have also a devastating effect on Europe economy too, especially in Eastern European countries, which might cause further rift in the EU.
Essentially Putin blinked first, but don't expect him to go full bananas yet and probably will wait, which will work in his way I guess.
Best case scenario is Putin (70) loses power sooner than later, but considering his stronghold over almost 3 decades is really unlikely unfortunately.
Dunno if this interests anyone. Some people from the "Open Source Intelligence" community holding a discussion right now on twitter spaces, these nerds know a lot of stuff.
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1OyKADObXVDxb?s=20
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1OyKADObXVDxb?s=20
Bitcoin moves that much most days.
This is one of the better maps of the area I’ve found. Dark grey is Donetsk and Luhansk as a whole, with the red frontline dividing the separatist-held areas in the east from Kiev-held areas in the west. Moscow has tonight recognized all of it as independent of Kiev. But are the “peacekeepers” going in to secure the frontline or is their mission to secure the borders that Moscow has now recognized?
Well that's exactly what everyone in Ukraine is wondering innit.This is one of the better maps of the area I’ve found. Dark grey is Donetsk and Luhansk as a whole, with the red frontline dividing the separatist-held areas in the east from Kiev-held areas in the West. Moscow has tonight recognized all of it as independent of Kiev. But are the “peacekeepers” going in to secure the frontline or is their mission to secure the borders that Moscow has now recognized?
I think we all know the answer though. I genuinely don’t understand what Putin thinks is going to happen other than the start of sanctions.
I don’t know enough about it, but let’s say Russia invades Ukraine and takes it, what does that to to a mans brain? How much further does he push it?
The only thing I think they could do aside from sanctions is to support Ukraine militarily - sending weapons, money and supplies to hurt Putin as much as possible.
I'm curious what he thinks is going to happen in Ukraine as well. When are his soldiers actually going to leave? Or is he going to try and occupy a slice of Ukraine permanently as he did in Crimea? Afaik, Crimea is far more pro-Russian than the rest of Ukraine and Ukraine was a mess at the time so this could lead to genuine battles and a resistant population.