Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

GlastonSpur said:
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Good luck 1) finding such numbers and 2) training them long and well enough prior to a first deployment. The US had a peak of 535,000 personnel in Vietnam during the Vietnam War, and the required time between enlistment and deployment of recruits was about 6 months. It was just not enough and it won't be ever enough against a fully motivated enemy.
 
They already lost their best troops. Anybody mobilised now would be not properly trained and not properly equipped. They are gathering all the rustbuckets from the old soviet reserve. They will be sending their young men into the grinder, effectively demilitarizing themselves for a generarion.
 
Raoul said:
Thread

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After reading this thread, I am actually surprised that the research unit of the Bundestag ("for many the gold standard of non-partisan analysis") has not done any detailed analysis about how many Ukrainian lives were destroyed using the money that Germany gives to Russia. It would be interesting, wouldn't it?
 
The Firestarter said:
They already lost their best troops. Anybody mobilised now would be not properly trained and not properly equipped. They are gathering all the rustbuckets from the old soviet reserve. They will be sending their young men into the grinder, effectively demilitarizing themselves for a generarion.
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Interesting to note that they keep throwing their best at this, now discussions around full mobilisation to throw into the meat-grinder all because they can rely on the safety of having nukes and wiping out humanity. Seems like the safety of nuclear weapons exacerbate conflicts.
 
do.ob said:
It's very valid to point out that all this lamenting about red lines is quite pointless and wasting valuable time, considering our allies have already crossed them. But this guy is not a good source for balanced information. He's only focusing on the "bad" side of the debate and presenting it as if it were the mainstream consensus. He seems to have dedicated his Twitter account to take out of context shots at Germany and in one of them he uses a derogatory terms for Germans, too.
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I disagree. I think this guy is a very good source of balanced information. His twitter tagline: "POLITICO Chief Europe Correspondent. Austro-Arizonan". For more information, see:

https://www.politico.eu/staff/matthew-karnitschnig/
 
Simbo said:
This, plus every day they have held out there since this began has occupied a large portion of Russias southern forces, likely some of their most experienced soldiers that have been on the front since 2014. Its impossible to know just how much this has hindered the Russian advance in the south east and the Donbas, but these few men holding out there might just be the reason Russia doesn't hold all of Donbas already. Their deeds will no doubt go down in history, hopefully there will be survivors and they won't end up like the 'cyborgs' at Donesk airport.

Also, Russia has a special hatred for the Azov regiment still fighting there because they were the guys that liberated Mariupol from Russian forces in 2014 (not because of the Nazi bollocks). I'm sure there are a few Russian commanders that want to finish them.
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Weren't they literally founded as a neo Nazi group waving Nazi flags?

Also pretty brutal war crimes against Azov? Genuine questions.
 
frostbite said:
After reading this thread, I am actually surprised that the research unit of the Bundestag ("for many the gold standard of non-partisan analysis") has not done any detailed analysis about how many Ukrainian lives were destroyed using the money that Germany gives to Russia. It would be interesting, wouldn't it?
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Actually, I was reading today that, due to the sanctions, Russia cannot access payments in euros that it receives. The article was in Dutch (link), but it's based on this study:

https://www.bruegel.org/2022/04/a-sanctions-counter-measure-gas-payments-to-russia-in-rubles/

In short, the Target 2 system ("the euro area’s settlement system") is required to convert euros to rubles, but Russia can't use it cause it's covered by the sanctions. So that 'clever' approach in which euro payments are made to the European branch of the Gazprom Bank and then converted to rubles doesn't actually work. That's why Putin is demanding to be paid directly in rubles, and why it's important that countries continue to refuse doing so.

To be fair though: the Dutch article adds that it's not clear whether this blockade through Target 2 was intentional or a happy by-product. And it also says that those euros are not completely useless to Russia, as apparently they can use euros as collateral when dealing with countries that haven't sanctioned Russia (like China). That's complicated and costly though; a lot of money is lost on the way.

Anyway, I thought that was interesting.
 
Cheimoon said:
Actually, I was reading today that, due to the sanctions, Russia cannot access payments in euros that it receives. The article was in Dutch (link), but it's based on this study:

https://www.bruegel.org/2022/04/a-sanctions-counter-measure-gas-payments-to-russia-in-rubles/

In short, the Target 2 system ("the euro area’s settlement system") is required to convert euros to rubles, but Russia can't use it cause it's covered by the sanctions. So that 'clever' approach in which euro payments are made to the European branch of the Gazprom Bank and then converted to rubles doesn't actually work. That's why Putin is demanding to be paid directly in rubles, and why it's important that countries continue to refuse doing so.

To be fair though: the Dutch article adds that it's not clear whether this blockade through Target 2 was intentional or a happy by-product. And it also says that those euros are not completely useless to Russia, as apparently they can use euros as collateral when dealing with countries that haven't sanctioned Russia (like China). That's complicated and costly though; a lot of money is lost on the way.

Anyway, I thought that was interesting.
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Interesting. My understanding is that this article discusses the situation "if" Gazprombank is sanctioned some time in the future. I think that Gazprombank is not sanctioned so far (I am not 100% sure). So the payments go to Russia without any problems at this point (70+ days). Am I wrong?

(And I don't think that Russia will keep providing gas if they can't access the money. )

Edit: Here is an article from WSJ. It discusses a few aspects of these transactions, but it did not really clarify things for me. My understanding remains that Russia receives all the gas money without any real problems.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gazpro...der-that-dodged-western-sanctions-11646996338
 
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frostbite said:
This is a very reasonable prediction:

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He has to understand very little about Germany if he believes people will feel about those two events in the same way.


But then he doesn't really care about Germany anyway. Germany is just a proxy for him to get at "liberals" which itself is hilarious given the recent past.
 
frostbite said:
This is a very reasonable prediction:

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What a colossal bullshit. Of course being indecisive in how to support Ukraine is comparable to killing millions of jews. The guy has to be a grade A asshole for posting stuff like this.

This makes me angry, it's belittling the holocaust. Start using your brain for once, jesus
 
Zehner said:
What a colossal bullshit. Of course being indecisive in how to support Ukraine is comparable to killing millions of jews. The guy has to be a grade A asshole for posting stuff like this.

This makes me angry, it's belittling the holocaust. Start using your brain for once, jesus
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He is not belittling the holocaust. He is belittling the Germans. Who once again think of their pockets only and they don't help the Ukrainians who are dying.

If the whole Western world tells you that Germany IS NOT DOING ENOUGH, it is probably time to do something real to help Ukraine instead of feeling... offended! It is only fecking idiots that are doing almost nothing, and feel offended that the rest of the West reminds them that they are doing very little.

Here is another one:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...scholz-to-visit-ukraine-on-russia-victory-day

Zelenskiy invites Germany’s Scholz to visit Ukraine on Russia’s Victory Day

President says visit on 9 May, when German leaders have often travelled to Moscow, would make powerful statement
 
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frostbite said:
He is not belittling the holocaust. He is belittling the Germans. Who once again think of their pockets only and they don't help the Ukrainians who are dying.

If the whole Western world tells you that Germany IS NOT DOING ENOUGH, it is probably time to do something real to help Ukraine instead of feeling... offended! fecking idiots that are doing almost nothing, and feel offended that the rest of the West reminds them that they are doing very little.

Here is another one:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...scholz-to-visit-ukraine-on-russia-victory-day

Zelenskiy invites Germany’s Scholz to visit Ukraine on Russia’s Victory Day

President says visit on 9 May, when German leaders have often travelled to Moscow, would make powerful statement
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Why would Zelensky invite Scholz if even half of the stuff you are constantly on about was true?
 
It seems that a lot of our German friends do not understand that Germany has a huge responsibility for the Ukrainian lives lost in this war. Sure, it is Russia that is doing the killing. But it is Germany that has enabled Russia in the past 20 years. And it is not just oil and gas. It is not that they only sent helmets before Feb 24th. It is not that they have been resisting sanctions on Russia. Here is another one:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...ends-2008-decision-to-block-ukraine-from-nato

Merkel defends 2008 decision to block Ukraine from NATO
 
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Abizzz said:
Why would Zelensky invite Scholz if even half of the stuff you are constantly on about was true?
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Because the past cannot be changed. But Germany can change course today. And really help Ukraine now.

(And it is a good idea to change that street name to Zelenskyy today, they don't have to wait for the next generation... )
 
Here is another good article. It is from February 15th, before the war.


Don’t mention the war in Ukraine: Germany’s deteriorating image in Washington
https://ecfr.eu/article/dont-mention-the-war-in-ukraine-germanys-deteriorating-image-in-washington/


There is a strange duality to Germany’s image in Washington. The Russia-Ukraine crisis dominates the foreign policy conversation. And, judging by the tone of that conversation, one might imagine that it is Germany that is about to invade Ukraine rather than Russia. As German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber warned her government in a recent cable, Germany is increasingly seen in Washington as a pacificist free-rider on the US security order. For many in Congress, Germany’s leaders virtue-signal about climate change and democracy while its economy gobbles up ever more Russian gas and its politicians take ever more Russian coin.
 
Insulting another member
frostbite said:
He is not belittling the holocaust. He is belittling the Germans. Who once again think of their pockets only and they don't help the Ukrainians who are dying.

If the whole Western world tells you that Germany IS NOT DOING ENOUGH, it is probably time to do something real to help Ukraine instead of feeling... offended! It is only fecking idiots that are doing almost nothing, and feel offended that the rest of the West reminds them that they are doing very little.

Here is another one:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...scholz-to-visit-ukraine-on-russia-victory-day

Zelenskiy invites Germany’s Scholz to visit Ukraine on Russia’s Victory Day

President says visit on 9 May, when German leaders have often travelled to Moscow, would make powerful statement
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"Not doing enough" isn't equal to "systematically killing millions of people and waging war on the whole world". What you do IS belittling the holocaust.

Jesus, this is so fecking dumb. This thread has seen some stupidity but if you ignore the Putin apologists, you're a serious contender for the pole position.

And just for the record, when it comes to patriotism, I'm very much at the lowest spectrum. This has nothjng to do with being German, you're just fecking stupid. And yes, I mean that personally.
 
If this guy’s analysis is correct, Ukraine is performing significant counterattacks around Izium. Not reaching Barvinkove to the SSW, a “decisive geographical point” in another analyst’s terms, would be a notable failure for Russia.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
If this guy’s analysis is correct, Ukraine is performing significant counterattacks around Izium. Not reaching Barvinkove to the SSW, a “decisive geographical point” in another analyst’s terms, would be a notable failure for Russia.
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It's not looking good for the Russians in and around (and north) of Izium. If their troops in and around Izium get cut off from re-supply - and they might well - then the Russian attempt to take the whole Donbas region will fail.
 
I think if Russia continues to suffer these major losses they will escalate to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine

can’t see them accepting defeat without using every weapon in their arsenal

although they did bail out of Afghanistan but this feels more close to home for Russia
 
frostbite said:
He is not belittling the holocaust. He is belittling the Germans. Who once again think of their pockets only and they don't help the Ukrainians who are dying.

If the whole Western world tells you that Germany IS NOT DOING ENOUGH, it is probably time to do something real to help Ukraine instead of feeling... offended! It is only fecking idiots that are doing almost nothing, and feel offended that the rest of the West reminds them that they are doing very little.

Here is another one:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...scholz-to-visit-ukraine-on-russia-victory-day

Zelenskiy invites Germany’s Scholz to visit Ukraine on Russia’s Victory Day

President says visit on 9 May, when German leaders have often travelled to Moscow, would make powerful statement
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At least we can be thankful that the Germans aren't as bad as the Greeks, then the Ukranians would really be up against it.

It's also cute that you, the very person so deeply offended by the acronym PIIGS, don't seem to mind at all people using derogatory terms for Germans.
 
frostbite said:
Interesting. My understanding is that this article discusses the situation "if" Gazprombank is sanctioned some time in the future. I think that Gazprombank is not sanctioned so far (I am not 100% sure). So the payments go to Russia without any problems at this point (70+ days). Am I wrong?

(And I don't think that Russia will keep providing gas if they can't access the money. )

Edit: Here is an article from WSJ. It discusses a few aspects of these transactions, but it did not really clarify things for me. My understanding remains that Russia receives all the gas money without any real problems.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gazpro...der-that-dodged-western-sanctions-11646996338
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No, the article claims it really isn't possible right now, because Gazprombank has to use the Target 2 system:
Sanctions are such that while the Russian state has a euro claim on Gazprombank, it cannot use it to, say, buy the rubles it needs domestically. Any euro exchange the Russian state might attempt, either via the markets or the Bank of Russia, would have to be settled with Target 2 – the euro area’s settlement system – and would be captured by sanctions
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The Dutch article spoke to specialists that weren't involved in that article and seemed to agree. But I'm no specialist.

I can't read the WSJ article (paywall), but from its opening bit, it doesn't seem to contradict this, but simply restate what everyone thought: that Gazprombank can indeed use this method. That doesn't necessarily contradict this think tank's article; but my question is why this think tank could figure this out while no-one else seems to be aware. Are others just not digging far enough or not aware of this Target 2 system?

But ultimately, its conclusion does explain Russia's insistence on payment in rubles, which is otherwise a weird move. (Why demand that if the money is coming in anyway?)
 
shamans said:
Weren't they literally founded as a neo Nazi group waving Nazi flags?

Also pretty brutal war crimes against Azov? Genuine questions.
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Yeh they were founded by far rights clowns as some sort of independent militia. That was stamped out for the most part 8+ years ago when they were converted to a national guard unit.

Still low hanging fruit for the Rus propagandists, always will be.
 
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Simbo said:
Yeh they were founded by far rights clowns as some sort of independent militia. That was stamped out for the most part 8+ years ago when they were converted to a national guard unit.

Still low hanging fruit for the Rus propagandists, always will be.
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Just because they are fighting the devil doesn't make them saints. They are swastika waving Nazi sympathizers that have far right volounters joining them from all over the world.
 
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