Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



In Ukraine, a howitzer, probably an American M777, was confirmed. I'm sorry if I made a mistake because I passed each other.
Multiple units are being transferred. I cannot disclose where I was running. I'm posting at a later time, so it's NOT real time.
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Sir Matt said:
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I'm not sure, but could this actually confirm that there will be no general mobilization? If there would be they could just start with those experts and wouldn't need to bother with hiring them first? What am I missing here?
 
stefan92 said:
I'm not sure, but could this actually confirm that there will be no general mobilization? If there would be they could just start with those experts and wouldn't need to bother with hiring them first? What am I missing here?
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The Russian state does have records of males of the right age to be conscripted but I highly doubt they have accurate databases about who is or isn't a mobilisation or logistics expert.
 
Siorac said:
The Russian state does have records of males of the right age to be conscripted but I highly doubt they have accurate databases about who is or isn't a mobilisation or logistics expert.
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What I find odd is that these people are supposed to be already working in the districts during peacetime. Not to start posting adds on linked in - "Hiring now due to WW3."
 
The Firestarter said:
What I find odd is that these people are supposed to be already working in the districts during peacetime. Not to start posting adds on linked in - "Hiring now due to WW3."
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Yeah, well, the Russian military and the Russian state in general hasn't exactly proven to be the apotheosis of efficient operation
 
What is the official position of the ukranian government regarding crimea? Let's say things go really well for them and they push back the russians, are they likely to try and take crimea back by force?
 
Peter Zeihan is a policy expert who predicted the Russian invasion. He quotes Catherine the Great as saying the only was Russia can defend is borders is to expand. They apparently want to hold 9 regions that are the 9 ways to invade Russia, and this is fed by a history with many invasions. This would require them to take Poland and everything that was part of the former Soviet Union except Germany.

He says that because of their demographics, they'll have half the population they do now by 2050, and none of them will be highly skilled as the Russian system of higher education was replaced with apprenticeships after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They thus feel that they're about to lose their last chance to get the kind of "security" they idealize (of course few countries have ideal defensible borders and don't feel the need to murder people over it, so it's no excuse).

He says for these reasons Mearsheimer is wrong. Here are two of the videos, there are much longer ones.

And if the West don't want to fight Russia in a NATO country, they better make sure Russia is bogged down in Ukraine for years.


 
maniak said:
What is the official position of the ukranian government regarding crimea? Let's say things go really well for them and they push back the russians, are they likely to try and take crimea back by force?
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Ukraine has never officially accepted the loss of Crimea and LPR/DPR.
 
maniak said:
What is the official position of the ukranian government regarding crimea? Let's say things go really well for them and they push back the russians, are they likely to try and take crimea back by force?
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They believe Crimea is still part of Ukraine that was stolen by the Russians (a vast majority of the world believe this as well). IMO, they aren't likely to push into Crimea unless Putin is deposed and the entire Russian regime collapses. Anything short of that would result in massive pushback from Putin and his goons involving other than conventional weapons. They would probably prefer to annihilate Crimea than see the Ukrainians reclaim it atop the already humiliating Russian losses in Ukraine.
 
Raoul said:
They believe Crimea is still part of Ukraine that was stolen by the Russians (a vast majority of the world believe this as well). IMO, they aren't likely to push into Crimea unless Putin is deposed and the entire Russian regime collapses. Anything short of that would result in massive pushback from Putin and his goons involving other than conventional weapons. They would probably prefer to annihilate Crimea than see the Ukrainians reclaim it atop the already humiliating Russian losses in Ukraine.
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It follows they would level the area if Ukraine can push the Russian soldiers out of Crimea. This Peter Zeihan guy I just mentioned said it will be 10 years until Ukraine can produce wheat and corn at the levels they did pre-covid, with terrible implications for Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.
 
So...we're all just anticipating the 9th now? Not that I expect significant news but I don't think a day has gone by without seeing that date mentioned somewhere.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
More good news from the fighting in the Kharkiv area.

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If they can keep moving north-east a bit more, then as I was citing from another report, they will be able to attack both a very large Russian logistics base and the supply route that runs south of that to Izium. The Russians can't afford for that to happen IMO, so I think they'll be forced to send some troops back up north from Izium. But the problem for the Russians with that is those troops in Izium have already taken a hell of a beating in their failed attempt to push south.
 
Rumours on twitter that Xiaomi and Lenovo will stop exports to Russia.
 
Frosty said:


Can anyone shed any light or provide context for this? I'm sceptical that's the whole story.
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Here's a police statement in German:
https://www.berlin.de/polizei/polizeimeldungen/2022/pressemitteilung.1203603.php

They cite a treaty from 1992 that compels them to protect soviet war memorials that commemorate the soldiers that fought to bring down Hitler.

They say they aim for two things: to prevent any kind of conflicts during the commemoration of these soldiers and they want to prevent any kind of support, acceptance or glorification for Russia's offensive war against Ukraine, especially demonstrations.
So they are banning both Russiand and Ukrainian flags from these memorial sites (not the entire city, the tweet is at best misleading in that regard) and forbid wearing uniforms, playing military marches or chants that could be used to express acceptance or glorification of Russia's war against Ukraine. There are exemptions for WW II veterans, diplomats and state delegations.
 
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do.ob said:
Here's a police statement in German:
https://www.berlin.de/polizei/polizeimeldungen/2022/pressemitteilung.1203603.php

They cite a treaty from 1992 that compels them to protect soviet war memorials that commemorate the soldiers that fought to bring down Hitler.

They say they aim for two things: to prevent any kind of conflicts during the commemoration of these soldiers and they want to prevent any kind of support, acceptance or glorification for Russia's offensive war against Ukraine, especially demonstrations.
So they are banning both Russiand and Ukrainian flags from these memorial sites (not the entire city, the tweet is at best misleading in that regard) and forbid wearing uniforms, playing military marches or chants that could be used to express acceptance or glorification of Russia's war against Ukraine. There are exemptions for WW II veterans, diplomats and state delegations.
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The PDF linked at the end of that contains some maps of the areas. You see that it's just some blocks around the memorial sites and that's it: https://www.berlin.de/polizei/_assets/dienststellen/anlagen-dir-e/220504-direvst111-av-ehrenmale.pdf
 
Raoul said:
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It's very valid to point out that all this lamenting about red lines is quite pointless and wasting valuable time, considering our allies have already crossed them. But this guy is not a good source for balanced information. He's only focusing on the "bad" side of the debate and presenting it as if it were the mainstream consensus. He seems to have dedicated his Twitter account to take out of context shots at Germany and in one of them he uses a derogatory terms for Germans, too.
 
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