I think the Russians are good at capitalizing on low-hanging fruit. But not as good at defending against other countries' cyber capabilities.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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I think the Russians are good at capitalizing on low-hanging fruit. But not as good at defending against other countries' cyber capabilities.
One also has to remember that Iraq was not because the US IC gave bad intelligence but because the Bush administration (Rumsfeld in particular) pressured the top guys at CIA to produce reports that would support their case to strike Iraq. A lot of reporting has been done about how many in the US IC doubted the guy behind much of the info, Ahmed Chalabi, but that once war was inevitable people shut up and got colored by war fervor. Not too dissimilar one could argue to what is happening with Russia at the moment.
Bully!
From what Ive seen, I'm pretty sure the RAF alone could wipe out the Russian Federation airforce, and that is with the RAF's depleted nature right now, we have fewer planes, but far, far advanced on Russian aircraft, combine that with the United States Navy Airforce, and that by the way disregards the USAF, in all reality Russia is completely fecked. The UK has 3 trident submarines, each capable of destroying Russia on its own, add that to any other NATO country that wants to help, I dont see where Putin can go. He is a massive cnut, he's fecked himself into a corner and I personally hope he dies a slow, and very, very painful death. Like the last scene in Braveheart, he hears a Ukrainian shout FREEDOM...
We have four ... not that it makes much difference, nuclear deterrence-wise.
I understand the part about Gerasimov being leaked since it could be used as a way to try to sow suspicion within the Russian leadership of the US is deliberately protecting Gerasimov. The broader issue is that, while the Russians know that we are helping Ukraine to some degree, publicly bragging about it is more likely to pressure Russia into some type of response. Openly humiliating Putin just seems more dangerous than humiliating him privately.
The subsequent story that we confirmed the Moskva's location seems somewhat gratuitous, but I can also see the benefit in conveying to the Russians that they can't operate in the Black Sea freely given our intel capabilities. We could do that privately though.
But what sort of response does Putin realistically have at his disposal at this point ? He’s getting humiliated in conventional war by a military one tenth Russia’s size and doesn’t have the luxury of using a nuke because it would isolate him from any countries who have previously abstained at the UN. He’s in a lose lose situation with dwindling options to work with. The US and Nato position is clearly to grind down his military resources to the point where he is forced to negotiate to stop the bleeding.
Honestly my two favorite historical individuals to study.
I agree that his ability to respond is tightly constrained, but I don't know the benefit of publicly spiking the football on this. There's no reason to confirm it for specific cases since similar stories about targeting assistance have come out recently. Assuming Putin wants to use this as more ammunition for his propaganda machine, giving specific examples, namely the Moskva since I'm sure the officer strike won't be mentioned there, makes it easier to sell to the Russian people. He can say, "Look, America is helping Ukraine murder your boys, and they're bragging about it in their own media!" It can help refine the talking point into something more digestible than nebulous and ubiquitous claims that the US is helping kill Russian soldiers.
It's similar to the British officials last week saying that they had no problem with the Ukrainians using their donated British weapons to strike Russia.
Fair point, you've got me thinking the US has intentionally turned up the aggression on it's posture and language, in order to match a coming increase in assistance. A lot of the US weapons are getting into the battlefield now, US made artillary will be out distancing Russian artillary, the intensity on the ground is higher. It also signals to other countries what will happen if they try a similar move.
Those won't mean jack when Trump is back in 2024. At that point the US will probably invade Ukraine from the east to help Russia
Those won't mean jack when Trump is back in 2024. At that point the US will probably invade Ukraine from the east to help Russia
The risk of Trump (or his clone) winning in 2024 is exactly why the EU and UK need to rapidly ramp up defence spending and military cooperation, so the Europe can be adequately defended against Russia even without the U.S. Having Sweden and Finland as part of the club will help with this.
These assurances are about the period of time between an application and being accepted as a full member of Nato. By 2024 Both Finland and Sweden will be full Nato members.Those won't mean jack when Trump is back in 2024. At that point the US will probably invade Ukraine from the east to help Russia
The way things are going for them I fear they’ll false flag attack their own victory parade to justify declaring ‘war’
I meant to post the cartoon but the letter is interesting too.
Lukashenko keeps on repositioning himself. I wonder how this will end for him. Claiming that Putin wants something that Putin surely does not want, or does not want made public (like early in the war plans to attack Moldova) is a constant in Lukashenko's behaviour, yet apparently Putin can't do anything about it.
Confirmations are arriving now it seems…This warship is one of the most modern ones in their fleet, apparently.
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Another russian military ship nakhui
The plant just being totally demolished for no good reason.
Not yet an official confirmation, but now we have proof of a fire in the claimed area. Could be the frigate.
If true, the Russian Black Sea Fleet now has only 2 major combat ships left.
Sink one tomorrow and another on Sunday, then Putin's "Victory Parade" on Monday would be marked by the effective loss of his entire Black Sea Fleet.
Most of the pro-Russian posts on Twitter are essentially forms of magical thinking from people who seem to imagine that if they post enough fake news/stupid propaganda items, then it's going to change the reality of Russia's military forces getting taken apart in this war. It's very strange.
I see a tendency, even from people who aren't pro-Russia but want to simply take a contrarian view, to revert back to some calculation of the total nominal Russian forces before this began minus estimated losses, and then compare that to estimated Ukraine forces when this began minus estimated losses. Then by that it appears that Russia is simply too much for Ukraine to handle.
But that ignores the old Napoleon quote of "In war, moral is to the physical as three is to one" (or other variations), and that Ukraine seems to have significant intelligence advantage provided by the US & others that appears to prevent Russia from obtaining strategic surprise in any of its efforts. It also ignores that Russia can't commit all of its forces to this fight, lest it leave its extensive borders unguarded.
Obviously I worry about the manpower of the Ukrainian military, especially in terms of experienced soldiers and officers that have likely seen significant casualties in the first 2 months of this conflict. And I don't know if they have the capability to successfully defeat and outflank Russian and separatist forces in the Donbass that might be fighting from more prepared positions.
Smoking is dangerous.
Username checks.
My understanding is that Ukraine has a lot of reserves that have not so far even been committed to the front lines - reserves that are of much higher quality than the Russian conscripts (and those in occupied territory who have now been press-ganged into fighting) that form a significant part of Russia's military.
I saw a update last night from a guy who knows his stuff and updates his campaign maps on a daily basis. The latest news from him is:
* The Russian forces that were previously not far from Kharkiv have lost a lot of ground, with the Ukrainian now having captured Staryi Saltiv to the east of Kharkhiv. This means that one of the Russians big logistical bases (well to the north of Izium) is now under increasing threat, along with the Russian supply lines southwards to Izium.
* The very large Russian advance south from Izium has been thrown back, with their troops retreating back into Izium after suffering big losses.