I'm not clear on the significance of Russia potentially "declaring war". Anyone? I mean it's so obviously a full on war already, only (some of) the Russian population might be fooled into believing they are not waging a war in Ukraine, but what might such a declaration really mean, especially in the face of them saying of course they aren't going to declare war (as if they'd do such a thing).
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
There were worries today about the Mauiopol remaining garrison as communication had been lost and Russians are pushing into the steel plant. The Azov commander has put a message out however, they still hold. Can't imagine what scenes are being played out there right now in close quarters.
Once Russia take the steel works, I think they'll declare the mission is over and keep those Eastern areas.
You don't think they'll also want to declare full occupation of the Donbas region?
It has huge legal implications. For example at the moment soldiers can theoretically just quit their job if they don't want to go to Ukraine and there's nothing their officers can legally do about it, except trying some shady blackmailing. And this happens, although it's not clear how big the numbers are. But Strelkov already publicly complained about that.
In a similar way conscripts can only legally be used in a war, so at the moment no conscripts can legally be send to fight. We now that this law was broken, but Putin had to publicly acknowledge that and officially announce an investigation of the case.
So it does matter a lot for the procedures inside Russia.
They want full occupation of Ukraine and that's not going to happen either. So I think at this point it’s not so much about what Russia really wants but more abou what they consider as the acceptable minimum to end this war they never wanted.
No...he knows he needs to end this imo and this is a neat full stop for him.
What is so important about this steel plant they've been fighting for for weeks? Is it just symbolic for the russians/ukranians or what?
Right now, purely symbolic for the Ukrainians.
It's insane they have hundreds of civilians trapped there , according to cnn.
Azovstal is the last resistance in the huge coastal area from Russia to Crimea. Establishing this land connection was one of the main objectives for Russia, as there is only one bridge connecting Crimea to Russia before this war, and that bridge might be quite vulnerable to attacks. Fully occupying Mariupol means Crimea is safely connected and not vulnerable to single attacks on one bridge.
This, plus every day they have held out there since this began has occupied a large portion of Russias southern forces, likely some of their most experienced soldiers that have been on the front since 2014. Its impossible to know just how much this has hindered the Russian advance in the south east and the Donbas, but these few men holding out there might just be the reason Russia doesn't hold all of Donbas already. Their deeds will no doubt go down in history, hopefully there will be survivors and they won't end up like the 'cyborgs' at Donesk airport.
Also, Russia has a special hatred for the Azov regiment still fighting there because they were the guys that liberated Mariupol from Russian forces in 2014 (not because of the Nazi bollocks). I'm sure there are a few Russian commanders that want to finish them.
Last edited:
To be fair, an advance to clear invaders 40 km clear of Kharkiv in several days is a pretty significant advance by the Ukrainian military.
The guy who wrote the piece just said on CNN that the US are deliberately not giving Gerasimov’s location to the Ukrainians to avoid provoking Putin, and also presumably to keep high ranking Generals who may one day overthrow Putin in place.
Sadly, looking at some of the posts and such we see from some American's there would be just as many American parents who would hold a similar view to that Russian parent
It’s just nice to know that if we wanted to, we could.
I wish these officials would shut the hell up. There's no reason to tell anyone this level of detail.
I really don't understand the purpose of claiming these things. Have they not heard of working quietly? It will only force Russia to respond in kind. Unless that's the intention.
I agree. They should just declassify that part in the next decade or so at the earliest.
They would just blame us anyways, on top of all the imaginary things they blame others for. So like other things we’ve released there is no value in pretending to hide it and instead we’ll use it like a tabloid to embarrass them. This is war in the Information Age.
Ya, I would like to see the US take the high road the few times that's even possible like in this situation but I get the importance of information warfare right now.
The best and fastest way to end this war is this: some Russians get rid of Putin, and then blame Putin for everything.
Perhaps this is the reason the US talks so much. To make it clear to them that Russia is going to lose this war. US is saying: "We are much stronger than you. We have too many high tech capabilities, surveillance, intelligence, guns, money, everything. The more you stay in this war, the more you will lose. Get rid of Putin and end this foolish war now."
Plus, letting them know that we can target their generals erodes morale for mid-level military personnel.
Perhaps this is the reason the US talks so much. To make it clear to them that Russia is going to lose this war. US is saying: "We are much stronger than you. We have too many high tech capabilities, surveillance, intelligence, guns, money, everything. The more you stay in this war, the more you will lose. Get rid of Putin and end this foolish war now."
Plus, letting them know that we can target their generals erodes morale for mid-level military personnel.
Sometimes wonders happen, I agree with you
But I would add that this might be even more intended to boost the Ukrainian morale, knowing that they are supported and that they can hit valuable targets instead of just having to fire dumb artillery somewhere where there might be Russians (like the Russians seem to do).
Not sure what you are watching, but it is more stalemate on the frontlines and then state-sponsored terrorism from the Russians. I called that this would happen from less than a week into the conflict: Russia didn’t need to grab that much land to achieve some objectives, but regardless they will just terrorise Ukrainian cities with missiles for the sake of it. That’s what they have done for hundreds of years: subjugate or destroy.
Imagine you're a Russian general and you've seen what is it now 4-6 other Generals killed in Ukraine. And you keep hearing that the US is providing intelligence to specifically target Russian Generals.
Are you going to want to go to Ukraine?
Probably not, so if you don't fancy being ordered to go to Ukraine by Putin. Then what's the alternative, maybe get rid of the guy who's sending Generals to die in Ukraine?
It must be quite demoralizing for the higher ups in russian military.
I don't think they need to be told that the US is helping them. I am sure they already know it. But for it to leak out publically, if I was Russian I would be more pissed off. It reinforces the Putin narrative that they are already in WW3 and fighting NATO. And that opens up a whole can of worms.
He's a reporter. Basically they're kind of like fake ITKs but for war instead of transfers
Pissed off by what? That NATO is helping Ukraine? Do you imagine being a Russian General who doesn't even know this? Do you think their Generals are that stupid?
Reinforces what? That Putin started a war against all the West? If you are a Russian General would be angry with the West, or with the moron Putin who started all this for no reason? Generals know how much power the Russian army has, and how much power the West has.
We just need a guy to terminate Putin. That's the whole game here.
I’d be shocked if anyone in Russia was shocked that we are giving that kinda info to Ukraine.
Well... they planned it together. It's not Lukashenko's fault if Putin is to stupid to execute it, isn't it?