Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

the hea said:
It's definetly artillery, could either be rocket artillery or a barrage from many artillery pieces. My guess is its from a Grad mlrs system.
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Thanks! My perception of artillery is that it’s nowhere near that accurate but possibly I’ve watched too many WW2 documentaries.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Thanks! My perception of artillery is that it’s nowhere near that accurate but possibly I’ve watched too many WW2 documentaries.
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I had the same perception before this war, Ukranian artillary seems to have been extraordinarily accurate since the beginning. No idea how they do it.
 
Simbo said:
I had the same perception before this war, Ukranian artillary seems to have been extraordinarily accurate since the beginning. No idea how they do it.
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I think they're using drones to help adjusting artillery aiming.
 
the hea said:
I don't think that is a very accurate barrage, the spread looks to be several hundreds of meters.
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I guess it depends on the shrapnel blast from each explosion, which I think is way bigger than the cloud you see. I’d also say it’s 1-200 metres not several hundred but it’s difficult to judge
 
WI_Red said:
No doubt the numbers are inflated, but to go from "the numbers are too high" to "the whole thing is made up" is a bit of a leap. I mean, guys might say they are lugging 12 inches around but just because it's actually 6 doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
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I can't believe that people are defending the Ghost of Kiev stuff. Even Ukranians have come out and said this is a myth, this is old news now.
 
I mean...of course there's no Ukrainian pilot who downed 40 Russian jets on his own. Who really believed that?
 
Will Putin formally declare war on Ukraine (perhaps on May 9th, the day of their annual Victory Parade) and thus call for a general mobilisation? The British Defence Sec. (for instance) thinks he will.

However, doing so would bring big problems for Putin:

* It'd be an admission that the "special military operation" has failed - or why else would a general mobilisation even be needed?
* It will make even harder to deny the reality of Russian personnel losses, both immediately and in the future (more conscripts equals more news leaks back to families)
* It won't be politically popular, because it effects almost everyone - the large bulk of Russians - who has a relative liable for conscription.
* It will be massively disrupting for business and companies, who suddenly stand to lose large numbers of their employees.
*It could be a political disaster if large number of potential conscripts seek to evade the draft.
* Where do they find (do they even have?) the equipment for all such a massive number of new conscripts?
* How will find Russia the resources needed to train hundreds of thousands of new conscripts?
 
Revan said:
@Raoul believed that.
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The 40 number isn't the issue. He could've shot down 5 and still gotten streets named after him. The point is that you were prepared to fabricate your own alternate reality and then proceed to live in it as if it had any more legitimacy than what you previously didn't believe.
 
Raoul said:
The 40 number isn't the issue. He could've shot down 5 and still gotten streets named after him. The point is that you were prepared to fabricate your own alternate reality and then proceed to live in it as if it had any more legitimacy than what you previously didn't believe.
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And I was shown to be right that the Ghost of Kyiv was propaganda, and it never existed.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Will Putin formally declare war on Ukraine (perhaps on May 9th, the day of their annual Victory Parade) and thus call for a general mobilisation? The British Defence Sec. (for instance) thinks he will.

However, doing so would bring big problems for Putin:

* It'd be an admission that the "special military operation" has failed - or why else would a general mobilisation even be needed?
* It will make even harder to deny the reality of Russian personnel losses, both immediately and in the future (more conscripts equals more news leaks back to families)
* It won't be politically popular, because it effects almost everyone - the large bulk of Russians - who has a relative liable for conscription.
* It will be massively disrupting for business and companies, who suddenly stand to lose large numbers of their employees.
*It could be a political disaster if large number of potential conscripts seek to evade the draft.
* Where do they find (do they even have?) the equipment for all such a massive number of new conscripts?
* How will find Russia the resources needed to train hundreds of thousands of new conscripts?
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There will be plenty of riots if that SOB goes through with a general mobilisation order.
 
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
 
Zehner said:
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
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Well it’s as white & black situation as you can get. Don’t give me this bs, most of the orcs are on military contracts, meaning that they do it for money and technically they can opt out whenever they please. I’m sorry but these are fascist forces of course it won’t be comfortable. Barbarians.

 
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GlastonSpur said:
* Where do they find (do they even have?) the equipment for all such a massive number of new conscripts?
* How will find Russia the resources needed to train hundreds of thousands of new conscripts?
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They probably won't train them properly and they most likely don't have adequate gear for them. It'll just be more people for the meat grinder.

Moreover, the mobilization would need time and as it seems Russia is running against the clock anyway. And even if they can afford a pause to mobilize reserves, Ukraine's also mobilizing and already training hundreds of thousands conscripts so they are likely to profit even more from the pause, especially considering that that would give them time to learn how to use various Western weapons as well. They could probably retake large territories as well.

I'm just a layman who was never interested in warfare or military before but from what I've seen and read I really struggle to see how this could end well for Russia. They'd probably be best of to just focus on defending the occupied territories and sort of turn the table by adapting Ukrainian tactics but this won't happen.

That's also why I believe it is important that we remain patient. Russia has the worse hand and if we just see it through and make no major mistake, they'll lose. Maybe even on a scale that enables real change in Russia itself. The most important thing is to do so without escalating the risk of nuclear warfare.
 
Zehner said:
I think it's a bit frightening, too. Not only that but also the Twitter videos in which killings of Russian soldiers are accompanied by funny music.

Those aren't orcs but still human beings, not all of them are devils who love to kill, torture and rape civilians. Many were just unlucky to be born at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Sure, in the end they are the invaders and better then them Ukrainians but it's still wrong to enjoy it or see them as some sort of creatures.
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Nop, they are orcs.
 
Revan said:
I don’t think there was ever a pilot who dropped 10 airplanes of similar quality. Not even Israeli pilots in the wars with the Arabs, despite having significant advantage in numbers.

Ghost of Kyiv legend was created in the first day or two, when apparently he dropped all 7 Russian airplanes that were lost back then. Of course it is a bullshit story, most Russian airplanes have been dropped from land to air missiles, not from other airplanes, and definitely not from the same guy.

Then no one talked about him till now.
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If by similar quality you mean leading fighters of the time on each side going head to head then there have been dozens.
 
Rajma said:
Well it’s as white & black situation as you can get. Don’t give me this bs, most of the orcs are on military contracts, meaning that they do it for money and technically they can opt out whenever they please. I’m sorry but these are fascist forces of course it won’t be comfortable.

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There are reports of poor and uneducated people being forced to sign contracts through various means and many of the atrocities being committed seem to be instructions by officers. The Chechen's main task in this war is to pursue and shoot deserters. And all that's ignoring that they are completely indoctrinated by a propaganda machinery without being taught any media competency or independent thinking during their education. Changes are that this could be you if you were born in their stead.

I'm not saying they are innocent or deserve mercy but their lifes are essentially tragedies themselves so being amused about their deaths or depicting them as worthless inhuman creatures is wrong.
 
sport2793 said:
Do we know this to be the case though? I'm concerned that any opposition voices have been shut up, either through physical acts or intimidation.
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Yeah, I agree. Z-patriotism has been given licence to intimidate or worse - the thugs will be out in force. Those expressing dissent will be accused of cowardice or treachery.

So I don't think there will be any protests except minor ones here and there - with those concerned being swiftly carted off by the police.
 
Angelina Jolie turns up in Kiev what a fkin beg, if you care so much publicise it on social media with your own voice, pisses me off.

Hope it isn’t a publicity stunt.
 
Zehner said:
There are reports of poor and uneducated people being forced to sign contracts through various means and many of the atrocities being committed seem to be instructions by officers. The Chechen's main task in this war is to pursue and shoot deserters. And all that's ignoring that they are completely indoctrinated by a propaganda machinery without being taught any media competency or independent thinking during their education. Changes are that this could be you if you were born in their stead.

I'm not saying they are innocent or deserve mercy but their lifes are essentially tragedies themselves so being amused about their deaths or depicting them as worthless inhuman creatures is wrong.
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You are absolutely right. Even if they behave like Orcs (which not every Russian soldier does, though it's definitely a lot) it is still a tragedy for humanity that societies exist where this happens.

Every dead orc is in a way a victim of an inhuman ideology that bred him that way and therefore a reason to mourn. Of course that doesn't redeem them of their crimes, it just is an additional layer of tragedy.

I get celebrating a victorious battle, but I will never get how people can celebrate the death of human beings.
 
Zehner said:
Moreover, the mobilization would need time and as it seems Russia is running against the clock anyway. And even if they can afford a pause to mobilize reserves, Ukraine's also mobilizing and already training hundreds of thousands conscripts so they are likely to profit even more from the pause, especially considering that that would give them time to learn how to use various Western weapons as well. They could probably retake large territories as well.

I'm just a layman who was never interested in warfare or military before but from what I've seen and read I really struggle to see how this could end well for Russia. They'd probably be best of to just focus on defending the occupied territories and sort of turn the table by adapting Ukrainian tactics but this won't happen.

That's also why I believe it is important that we remain patient. Russia has the worse hand and if we just see it through and make no major mistake, they'll lose. Maybe even on a scale that enables real change in Russia itself. The most important thing is to do so without escalating the risk of nuclear warfare.
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In order to train someone well enough to go to war in the context that the country's survival is not immediately at stake, they would need to survive basic training prior to entering more advanced training that would precede any deployment. Just to give everyone here an idea, the US Army Basic Combat Training (BCT), the US Marine Basic Training, and the Canadian Basic Military Qualification last 9 weeks, 13 weeks and 10 weeks respectively. Even during WW2, the US demanded their recruits to undergo a 3-fold training program that lasted 35-38 weeks prior to any deployment (source).

Just the "pause" would be about perfect for the currently combat-active Ukrainians to harrass and deplete the very thin Russian control upon occupied territories further. There is just no way that Russia could get enough properly trained conscripts within reasonable timetables to make a difference on the ground against a very motivated opponent.

sport2793 said:
Do we know this to be the case though? I'm concerned that any opposition voices have been shut up, either through physical acts or intimidation.
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But how far can you intimidate the masses into submission? What will they do if people start self-injuring themselves or doing whatever else to not get into military service? History is littered with examples of people using various ways to evade conscription. Just the specter of the draft during the Vietnam War alone was enough to drive several Americans abroad, especially to Canada.
 
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stefan92 said:
You are absolutely right. Even if they behave like Orcs (which not every Russian soldier does, though it's definitely a lot) it is still a tragedy for humanity that societies exist where this happens.

Every dead orc is in a way a victim of an inhuman ideology that bred him that way and therefore a reason to mourn. Of course that doesn't redeem them of their crimes, it just is an additional layer of tragedy.

I get celebrating a victorious battle, but I will never get how people can celebrate the death of human beings.
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Yes, that's exactly how I feel
 
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