Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Just wait a month. It's already very visible. The main issue is that Putin's biggest electorate are people who are already on the verge of poverty so the difference for them won't be as drastic, they've already in a completely disastrous state.

But yeah, mid-term, not short-term.

Hello harms, I hope you are as keeping as well as may be possible. I remember you saying a while back that you were considering your possible options for leaving Russia - has this become more difficult for you now? What's your latest thinking about this?
 


The Ghost of Kyiv was real! Unfortunately he died :(


To take down over many enemy fighter jets in this day and age is just really impressive. A shame that he won't be able to tell his stories, but he will be remembered up there among top aces in the annals of air combat history, especially when air combat is now so rare.
 
With Putin threatening nukes I wonder if he has considered where the prevailing winds in Europe will push the nuclear fallout.
 
Just wait a month. It's already very visible. The main issue is that Putin's biggest electorate are people who are already on the verge of poverty so the difference for them won't be as drastic, they've already in a completely disastrous state.

But yeah, mid-term, not short-term.

Yes, those sanctions are long term. I don't think the West will accept that all of the east Ukraine is practically destroyed and thousands of people are dead and will just "forgive" Russia and continue business as usual. Those sanctions will stay for many years, perhaps decades.

And it will probably get worse in the future because the goal of the EU is to get zero gas from Russia. Sure, the EU does not seem capable of going to zero Russian imports any time soon, but I think that this is the long term goal. France already has an extensive program of building new nuclear reactors till 2050, all the EU countries have various programs for green energy... all that will be accelerated. These programs cannot be completed in a month or two, but in a year or two the whole energy landscape will be very different.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...o-14-new-nuclear-reactors-by-2050-says-macron

(This article is just before the war. This is also what Germany should do. It was stupid to close their reactors... )
 
Last edited:
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again? ;)

To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?

I think it's also worth noting that many of the products he mentioned being shipped through middlemen in China and Kazakhstan aren't necessarily sanctioned items. They are more likely from companies that stopped doing business in Russia, but there's no mechanism for punishment for that. Coke, etc. aren't on any sanctions list. Getting computer chips, plane parts, and other sanctioned/restricted items will be much more difficult since anyone involved in flouting the sanctions risks punishment. If Kazakhstan is illegally redirecting sanctioned products to Russia, they will be on the receiving end of secondary sanctions.
 
Maybe not be on your smartphone in a war zone, lest you trigger an antipersonnel mine.

But he loved that smartphone, in fact his last action in life was to use it to upload his own death to the internet.
 
Only good when you have air superiority. Without it they are easy targets.
You are correct, but even a couple of strafing runs would yield results. Then fly low & slow back to safety.

No clue how long it would take to train UKR pilots to fly them, but the Thunderbolt seems pretty analog v late generation fighters.
 
Hello harms, I hope you are as keeping as well as may be possible. I remember you saying a while back that you were considering your possible options for leaving Russia - has this become more difficult for you now? What's your latest thinking about this?
I’m still thinking about this but it was always something that’ll take a few months at least, I still have a few important things to finish up here. Whenever I’ll actually do it or not, who knows… inside I’m really hoping that Putin’s regime will start crumbling as I’m wrapping up but it’ll probably take a bit longer.
 
I think we have to be a little bit more patient. It seems like this war strarted ages ago but it is just going on for two months. The sanctions will take a while to take effect. Time is on the Ukraine's side.

It'll only become more and more difficult for Russia as this goes on. I think it is very important that we stay firm - not only politically, but the society as a whole.
 
I think we have to be a little bit more patient. It seems like this war strarted ages ago but it is just going on for two months. The sanctions will take a while to take effect. Time is on the Ukraine's side.

It'll only become more and more difficult for Russia as this goes on. I think it is very important that we stay firm - not only politically, but the society as a whole.
"The Ukraine" ? ;)
 
I think we have to be a little bit more patient. It seems like this war strarted ages ago but it is just going on for two months. The sanctions will take a while to take effect. Time is on the Ukraine's side.

It'll only become more and more difficult for Russia as this goes on. I think it is very important that we stay firm - not only politically, but the society as a whole.

I agree. It almost stands to reason that these things will take time. Talk of Russia ordering full mobilisation is generally seen in terms of the threat to Ukraine, but let’s not forget that it’s exceptionally expensive and unpopular. And probably added to that it’s not necessarily men that Russia needs, it’s the weapons they have and the knowledge to use them.
 
I guess I got the pronoun game wrong? :nervous:
In general you use pronouns for landscapes, but not for states. By calling it "the Ukraine" you essentially deny its existence as a state.

But I'll admit it's deeply ingrained into my brain too
 
“the Ukraine” is what the place was called when it was a piece of the USSR. Some folks still use “the Ukraine” in a pejorative way.

“Ukraine” is what it’s been called since gaining independence.
Just Ukraine, like Germany. Not the Ukraine or the Germany. The Netherlands is fine, though.

Thanks for the calririfcation! Over here it is still very common to refer to it this way. Actually so much that it sounds weird to leave the pronoun away in German, similarly to the use of "the Netherlands"/"die Niederlande". Before a football game you'd always say for instance "Heute spielt England [no pronoun] gegen die Ukraine [with pronoun]". I wasn't even aware we are saying it like this until now. Weird how that goes, especially if you think about why there's even a difference in the first place.
 
“the Ukraine” is what the place was called when it was a piece of the USSR. Some folks still use “the Ukraine” in a pejorative way.

“Ukraine” is what it’s been called since gaining independence.

This is just silly, particularly for not native english speakers. In my language, both the Ukraine and Ukraine would have been translated equally, as there are no articles. Actually when to use or not use (the?) articles is the hardest part for me. Most of the times it's just instinctive.
 
This is just silly, particularly for not native english speakers. In my language, both the Ukraine and Ukraine would have been translated equally, as there are no articles. Actually when to use or not use (the?) articles is the hardest part for me. Most of the times it's just instinctive.
President Obama accidentally said “the Ukraine” in a press conference in 2014.

When asked about the “the Ukraine” gaffe and which form of the name to use, Tamara Gallo Olexy, the president of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, said “We correct anybody that we’re speaking to… It’s this feeling that you’re part of another country, that you are a territory of somebody else.”

President Trump also made the same gaffe in 2019, leading to this…

“The Ukrainian journalist Olena Goncharova broke down the specifics of the etymological insult in a series in the Kyiv Post called “Honest History.” “Saying ‘the Ukraine’ is more than a grammatical mistake — it is inappropriate and disrespectful for Ukraine and Ukrainians,” she wrote. Attaching “the” in front of the name not only suggests that Ukraine is a “sub-part or region of a country,” like “the Fens in England, the Algarve in Portugal, and the Highlands in Scotland,” but it implies that Ukraine is a vassal state, a colonial territory, whereas “Ukraine is no longer a part of another country or empire,” she emphasized. “After many hard battles, it has become an independent, unitary state.”
 
To add to the above from @Carolina Red 'Ukraine' approximately translates into 'edge' or 'borderland' is my understanding. Thus "the Ukraine" approximates to "the border province".
 
Balanced view of where we are now and Russia strategic options ( ie not many good ones)