Because whilst Europe has the ability to build what is required it doesn't actually have what it needs right now, by the time it did it would likely be too late for Ukraine
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there are two sides to this story, right? Europe willfully accepted US protection, but in exchange also just used the US infrastructure for arms production, neglecting its own and effectively paying the US machinery. Something both sides benefited from
He's sadly a dead man walking.
He's been a dead man walking for three years though. He's shown incredible resilience.
Yes, it was a misunderstanding on my behalf. And you are right, the developments in Syria (combined with Turkey enforcing the treaty forbidding warships to travel through the Bosporus while being at war) resulted in the Russian Mediterranean Sea Task Force no longer existing. By the way, does someone know what happened to them? Last thing I know is that they moved out of the Mediterranean, but I have no idea where they ended. Did they join the Baltic Fleet or the Northern Fleet?
Yeah. if Europe does finally get serious about re-arming itself, I'm assuming it will to a large extent do so through the European military industry. I mean, they can't trust the US anymore and European manufacturers are plenty and high-quality, so why continue being dependent on the US and subsidizing their industry? The end result of all this would then be a Europe that's militarily independent from the US and significant financial loss to the US military industry.
The story is similar in other respects of course (Trump's policies leading to long-term losses for the US), but it's still strikingly stupid even from a US selfish point of view.
That he did and all credit to him.
However, given the current situation and with the orange psychopath in the White House, I personally think that his political future will be cut short.
Certainly a possibility. I think we will see a Europe rallying hard for Ukraine now, but it might not be enough.
There will most certainly be a significant rearmament policy throughout Europe in the coming years, and its relationship with the US has been forever altered. I do hope that it was the much needed wake-up call for Europe to finally sever the toxic US umbilical chord.
However I can't see anything beyond platitudes and empty gestures when it comes to Ukraine. Europe, as it currently is, simply can't fill the bill and its leaders would have a hard time selling a direct involvement in the Ukraine War anyway.
Let's not mask it, Europe absolutely could step up and has had enough time to do something. it's easy for politicians to point fingers at Trump for pulling aid as their voters are rightly hostile to Trump, yet if EU countries don't step up they're no better in practice.
It's more than Trump that has failed Ukraine.
I see what you mean. Yes, certainly the % interest rate that they have is one of the indicators that I consider of Russia not being a healthy economy. But it is far from collapsing at the short term. Despite the high interest rate, Last year they had a lower deficit than most of the EU, thanks that they had a higher revenue than planned due to oil and gas prices and the ability to bypass sanctions. The EU still buying oil and gas from Russia.
Despite the obvious hurdles, as Russia had bypassed many sanctions on Physical products that requires literally tankers, I don't see how you really believe that they can't bypass liquid forms like financing themselves. And regardless, their debt is relatively very low
I am talking like i am a russian economic expert and far from it, but I can see the Russian economy to keep going for years before being a reason to stop this war. Their economic problems maybe would make them think to cut it out in normal circumstances, but being at war, they will stretch it further than possible and they will mortgage their middle and long term economic perspectives if necessary
Lets agree to disagree
Direct involvement is not necessary, and filling the bill is mostly a matter of political will. Granted that might be hard to sell to EU populations, but I don't think it's impossible that Europe could continue arming Ukraine to fight this war of attrition. One factor that is mostly hidden is how Russia's economy is doing, and I'm guessing it isn't great.
But back to the point of Zelenskyy, I imagine it could be fairly easy for an opposition politician to sell the idea that he has destroyed the relationship with Trump and therefore they need someone new. The counter-argument would be that the Ukrainian population might be very suspicious about anyone backed by Trump now.
The problem is that this (besides NK) had been said since more than a year ago and here we are still
I think everybody agrees that the Russian economy has proven itself to be much more resilient than expected at the beginning of the war but a) since the December sanctions, things have developed a different kind of dynamic and b) the situation hasn't changed, the question is "when" and not "if". As far as I know, much would change if Ukraine had more modern long-range weapons since Russia's modus operandi is basically mass producing artillery shells and bombing the shit out of their opponent. But since artillery isn't exactly modern warfare, the production capabilities of the EU in the particular case of artillery shells can't keep up with Russia's despite having much more muscle in general. With enough weaponry that possesses a range advantage and the ammo to use those weapons at the necessary rate (or even air superiority), Russia's advantage in terms of artillery shell production would be negated.
The real rubber will meet the road when Trump thinks he has Zelenskyy on board, then has to negotiate concessions with Putin. If he simply gives up the farm then Zelenskyy will pull out, so there has to be some degree of a land compromise among two parties who aren't willing to concede any territory to the opposition. This is why there's a high probability this won't work and we will be back to square one very soon.
You seem very confident that Russia can keep this going indefinitely, yes, their economy has been going stronger than most thought it would, but there is a breaking point, when that is, we don't know.
You can't tell me though, that 20% interest rates and rising, and an increasingly unstable ruble, are not warning signs.
The parties* in the Norwegian parliament just announced that they are increasing the projected aid to Ukraine for 2025 from £2.5 billion to £6 billion.
*all of them:
*all of them:
Then Trump will blame Zelensky, lift all sanctions on Russia. If that doesn't work he will implement sanctions against Ukraine, because Zelensky is a "dictator", that is blocking peace to stay in power.
If even that doesn't work... I wouldn't be surprised that US tries to assasinate him.
That wouldn't work for Trump domestically. Ultimately, he's addicted to spectacle and wants desperately to present himself as having negotiated a successful deal, just as he did five years ago with Abraham Accords. Zelenskyy can continue fighting with European support for several more years, so if Trump wants to resolve this once and for all, he is going to have to place equal pressure on both parties to make concessions, or else the fighting will go on. The real question is how much longer Putin can stay afloat given the effect all of this has had on the Russian economy.
I agree on this, but I really don't think Trump understands it. My guess is that he thinks he can put the pressure purely on Ukraine and that it will result in a deal they will have to accept, but Europe is now galvanized, which will make that harder for him. Given that mindset the next logical step for Trump is to begin supporting Russia, and I think it is pretty likely that he will do that. He is already providing diplomatic cover for them, and the next step could be lifting sanctions and maybe even providing intelligence.
If US lifts sanctions on Russia, I'm sure Putin can last few more years. Trump said to Zelensky, "you don't have the cards", and unfortunately that looks to be true. If you are going to be fighting a war against superior force, resolve is the key (talibans in both afghanistan wars never surrendered) and Ukrainian morale seems on the verge of breaking.
I'm not a military expert, but I do (want to) believe that Ukrainans can win this war even withou US. but not with their current strategy.
But That is basically what I had been saying. I agree with you @Zehner that is not a matter of "if" but "when". And @Morty_ , I didn't say remotely that Russia can sustain it indefinitely. I Think the longer it goes, the worse it will get for Russia exponentially in the middle long term. They basically are screwing themselves for the future, but I don't see Russia pre second term Trump folding before Ukraine does in current conditions let alone now with Trump easing up Russian invasion.
If Ukraine would receive better equipment and quantities (specially artillery) maybe, but Russia is too big and produces too much of what they need. That means they have more manpower and more replenishing capabilities. Not to speak that they are taping into N koreans in the tens of thousands.
Also the most important thing. Putin can't fail so he will run Russia to the ground before pulling back.
Summarizing my point of view, I think russian economy is not in good shape but not as bad as to having to pull out in 2-3 years (and then to reassess if longer), specially in a war economy mentality that lets you stretch you further than European accommodated middle class mentality and also that is existential for Putin (not for Russia) which will push russians to the limit
He will use a nuke before letting that happen.
US Presses Ukraine for Quick Truce to Go With Minerals Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...to-go-with-minerals-deal?srnd=homepage-europe
Neither of them have the cards because their economies and ability to replenish arms and soldiers are both severely depleted. Putin is having to import North Koreans to defend Russian territory, so its doubtful sanctions relief would fix that. I'm now hearing there are a few Chinese troops spotted in Donbas as well. Not exactly a good sign for Russian capacity right now.
As long as it is contained in Ukraine I don't see that happening even losing
Scumbags.
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I agree with you, but I don't think Trump does.