Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

What the hell happened here? You have the biggest Republican nutters and the supposedly progressive “The Squad”.

 
While I agree the chances are remote, there is a wildcard in all of this and that is Putin and his physical and mental health.

People who are in power for decades unchallenged, have a tendency to feel untouchable. This combined with whisperings that he's in ill health, give me little confidence that the Russian administration will act rationally should their campaign in Ukraine continue to stall and falter.

Agreed, a healthy Putin is a multi billionaire who gets to do whatever he wants in the world all day long. He doesn't want mutually assured destruction. A Putin on his deathbed and as a Narcissist wants to be remembered throughout history would maybe push the nuclear button. Then there is the question if he simply has to flip a button or if others have to be involved in launching the Nuclear missiles.
 
What the hell happened here? You have the biggest Republican nutters and the supposedly progressive “The Squad”.



If I had to guess I'd say they tried to tag something else on with the bill that they didn't like? Or it's just not true, who knows.
 
What the hell happened here? You have the biggest Republican nutters and the supposedly progressive “The Squad”.


Horseshoe theory. The radical left and right are closer together than mid left/right.

We see this in many countries, it is not specific to the US.
 
What the hell happened here? You have the biggest Republican nutters and the supposedly progressive “The Squad”.



'The Squad' have been corrupted by big money and don't push for any of the progressive policies they ran on. As for this instance who knows.
 
How would the West always know when a tactical nuke is deployed and made ready to fire? How do you know that the first knowledge of it won't come until the thing detonates?

And how do you know that Putin isn't willing to gamble on a belief that the West won't fire a nuke in return for fear of the consequences? And how do you know that the Russian officers involved in the nuclear launch sequence won't be hard-core and brainwashed nationalists who - perhaps like Putin - might either believe that the West won't retaliate, or else that a nuclear war is winnable?

In the 1950s I believe they had a radar first response system for monitoring of any potential missiles. I imagine these days every Russian nuclear weapon is monitored through satelites. Putin takes calculated risks but he lives a very priveldged life. Also let's remember one of the key reasons for this war is because Russia wants to landgrab the oil and gas in the black sea and surrounding areas because they want to sell it to do international business in order to live a privledged lifestyle. You can't fire nuclear weapons and do international business in the forseeable future. He isn't going to shoot himself in the face by launching a nuclear weapon at a country with nuclear weapons who can destroy everything he holds dear unless he's at deaths door and he wants to leave a 'legacy'. I personally think it's bully boy theatrical tactics.
 
US is delivering, quite a lot of cargo flight activity:


Denmark is also promising armoured vehicles etc:
 
Have you looked into it? I'd bet my hat there is rational reasoning.

Does anyone know, or can take an educated guess, as to why they voted as they did? I’m coming from a position of generally respecting and trusting those guys, so I’m inclined to think there is an underlying reason which isn’t as reductive as simply some people on the left downplaying Stalin’s actions etc.
 
I thought Mr. Vexler was saying Putin was interested in using the increased threat of nuclear war to influence the thinking of the West. Not that he thinks he'll launch any.

Vexler thinks that "This is a defensive, existential war in Putin's mind - in which either he manages to radically change the international order (he can't) or Russia (not separable from him in his mind) will have no meaningful future. So, there is no necessary upper limit of escalation for him."

So, given that Putin will be unable to succeed in what Vexler says are Putin's war aims, he's saying that Putin will therefore believe there is nothing to lose that is worth saving, and will therefore gamble on nuclear escalation. To put it another way, he's saying that Putin is now totally lost in delusions of grandeur and will go to any lengths to prevent those delusions from being exposed to reality.

Or to boil it right down, he's essentially saying that Putin has gone barking mad and is no longer a rational actor
 
Have you looked into it? I'd bet my hat there is rational reasoning.
A decent part of western leftist/progressive organisations and their electorate have been absolutely disgusting since the start of the invasion. There is also a possibility that those politicians are just catching up to them.
 
Does anyone know, or can take an educated guess, as to why they voted as they did? I’m coming from a position of generally respecting and trusting those guys, so I’m inclined to think there is an underlying reason which isn’t as reductive as simply some people on the left downplaying Stalin’s actions etc.

my guess would be a protest vote because they think Israel should be treated similarly. Basically a Congressional version of the whataboutism thread.
 
Horseshoe theory. The radical left and right are closer together than mid left/right.

We see this in many countries, it is not specific to the US.

It's a correct theory in my view. Both the radical right and left don't really want or believe in democracy - what they want is an authoritarian government that will rule by decree in ways that favour their prejudices. This is why it's always essential to hold together the centre ground - ranging from centre-left to centre-right - as a political constituency. Otherwise ....

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity …”


The Second Coming, by W. B. Yeats
 
It's a correct theory in my view. Both the radical right and left don't really want or believe in democracy - what they want is an authoritarian government that will rule by decree in ways that favour their prejudices. This is why it's always essential to hold together the centre ground - ranging from centre-left to centre-right - as a political constituency. Otherwise ....

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity …”


The Second Coming, by W. B. Yeats
Cool story and everything but none of “The Squad” are radical left or even close to it. They’re all centrists by anything other than the American Overton window so applying political theory that is based on the traditional Left/Right spectrum is beyond daft. They’re all a million miles away from Communists.
 
US is delivering, quite a lot of cargo flight activity:


Denmark is also promising armoured vehicles etc:


Good news! I think this marks the point of no return for Germany/Russia relationship. Together with the recent gas blackmail on EU states, Russia won’t be seen as a reliable energy partner any longer even in Germany.
 
Does anyone know, or can take an educated guess, as to why they voted as they did? I’m coming from a position of generally respecting and trusting those guys, so I’m inclined to think there is an underlying reason which isn’t as reductive as simply some people on the left downplaying Stalin’s actions etc.

A decent part of western leftist/progressive organisations and their electorate have been absolutely disgusting since the start of the invasion. There is also a possibility that those politicians are just catching up to them.

I've seen a suggestion that it could be because of extensive court battles and legal costs expected as a result of such an action. Seizing yachts for example could prove more costly in the long run if they can't prove without doubt a certain Oligarch has a direct connection to the events unfolding in Ukraine.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/rus...his-is-what-happens-after-theyre-seized-.html

I've not seen what is in the bill though, it is completely common practise in the US for unrelated things to be attached on to bills that stop certain people voting for it just so it can be hung over their head for years "look everyone, they didn't vote for this".
 


Genocide in Europe in 21st century, unbelievable. Imagine the scale had Russia managed to occupy all of Ukraine?
 
Cool story and everything but none of “The Squad” are radical left or even close to it. They’re all centrists by anything other than the American Overton window so applying political theory that is based on the traditional Left/Right spectrum is beyond daft. They’re all a million miles away from Communists.

Fine, but then I haven't said that they are radical left (in the sense of being as extreme as the alt-right).
 
Fine, but then I haven't said that they are radical left (in the sense of being as extreme as the alt-right).
No but your post is surely on the assumption that they are.

Just because they are the furthest left in American politics doesn’t mean they are at the extreme of the left side of the horse shoe. The horseshoe represents the entire political spectrum of which they are fairly close to the centre whereas the American right is fairly close to the extreme right.

So if you’re applying generic political theory it’s daft to suggest the squad are anywhere near the left horseshoe position that fringe republicans are taking up on the right.
 


This is a couple of weeks old, maybe even a month, as the first comments on the tweet also point out. I don't think we should be posting everything from twitter without at least checking if it's true or sill applies.

Considering how old this is and that there is even less voices of dissent in Russia and propaganda is more and more aggressive, I don't think that Putin is under any pressure, as the tweet is supposed to imply.
 
I've seen a suggestion that it could be because of extensive court battles and legal costs expected as a result of such an action. Seizing yachts for example could prove more costly in the long run if they can't prove without doubt a certain Oligarch has a direct connection to the events unfolding in Ukraine.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/rus...his-is-what-happens-after-theyre-seized-.html

I've not seen what is in the bill though, it is completely common practise in the US for unrelated things to be attached on to bills that stop certain people voting for it just so it can be hung over their head for years "look everyone, they didn't vote for this".
They are against sanctions generally speaking due to the reasons you listed, unexpected long-term ramifications, and in other cases where they mostly end up hurting the common people and not the elite they were targeted at.

But that was mostly a symbolic bill anyway so it’s not worth getting fussed over.
 
Have you looked into it? I'd bet my hat there is rational reasoning.
American media has been asleep, but best I’ve seen is suggestion that they want a food aid policy for those countries likely to be affected by lack of Ukrainian harvest. Doesn’t add up.
 

Russia seems to slowly lose all goodwill that's ledt for them in the world.

Meanwhile Germany is working on another three way tank deal with Czech - they could send their T-72 to Ukraine, which could be immediately used - and backfills Czech's army with tanks from German reserves/industry storage, but presumably not with MBT but it will likely be stuff lik the Marder IFV.

 
It's a correct theory in my view. Both the radical right and left don't really want or believe in democracy - what they want is an authoritarian government that will rule by decree in ways that favour their prejudices. This is why it's always essential to hold together the centre ground - ranging from centre-left to centre-right - as a political constituency. Otherwise ....

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity …”


The Second Coming, by W. B. Yeats

Love that piece of verse, so many ways to keep understanding it.
On your other poking though, when you talk about the ‘radical’ Left do you really include someone like AOC in that? I get that that is the insult thrown at her by the American right, but if she was a UK MP I doubt she’d be considered in any way radical.
 
How long ago did he do that? And why? Completely missed that one.

He did it yesterday. By recognizing Kosovo he somehow thought that he would give validity to the regions he wants to break away in the Ukraine.
 
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