Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

nimic said:
This post makes a lot more sense a week after the invasion. I wouldn't really describe the current course of the war as "emboldening Russia". Kyiv is not going to fall, and Ukraine is not going to be conquered. Geopolitically, Russia is a massive loser of this war. Obviously Ukraine is too (and most of all Ukrainain civilians).
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Geopolitically Ukraine can be considered a winner in the long term because most major western powers fully united behind them and will help them in the rebuild, both civilian and military. While nato is still a stretch they might be able to accelerate their membership application for the EU - although they were not even close to that realistically, if the normal process was to be followed.
 
stefan92 said:
Is it just me, or is the concept of a no fly zone just weird? You have to fight the enemy air force and the air defence of their army and potentially navy (effectively destroying it) to ensure that your fighter aircrafts can operate to enforce the no fly zone.

I just don't get it, doesn't it effectively mean "we fully participate in the war, but we just send our air force"?
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You would be putting your air forces into a country at their request. It would be up to the Russians if they decided to dare attack those forces.
 
Lemoor said:
Gazprom apparently stopped the supply of gas to Poland yesterday because of the refusal to pay in rubles.
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Germany and France have also refused to pay in rubles, but Putin picked two smaller, former soviet block countries to see what the EU will do next.
 
stefan92 said:
Is it just me, or is the concept of a no fly zone just weird? You have to fight the enemy air force and the air defence of their army and potentially navy (effectively destroying it) to ensure that your fighter aircrafts can operate to enforce the no fly zone.

I just don't get it, doesn't it effectively mean "we fully participate in the war, but we just send our air force"?
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That's more or less why there's not a no fly zone. Whoever put it in place (NATO most likely) would have to shoot down any Russian planes showing up which would be seen as NATO entering the war. What Russia's response would be is anyone's guess.
That's my understanding of it anyway.
 
Lemoor said:
Gazprom apparently stopped the supply of gas to Poland yesterday because of the refusal to pay in rubles.
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Without the option to attack any of the European countries he's trying to divide them as much as he possibly can. He's been doing it for a long time and, sadly, been very successful at it.
 
I just hope the next generation of leaders deal with the idiocy of nuclear weapons. There's simply no reason to maintain these arsenals and it gives a single human being an absolutely insane amount of influence.

Putin without nukes is barely a threat, and presumably we'd never have gotten to this stage.
 
Aren't Germany sending tanks and training troops? So why are these clowns just threatening "Britain to be wiped off the map"
 
Smithy89 said:
Aren't Germany sending tanks and training troops? So why are these clowns just threatening "Britain to be wiped off the map"
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They think we are the most easily deterred? Who knows/cares, nothing they say should be taken seriously, or listened to at all for that matter.
 
Simbo said:
They think we are the most easily deterred? Who knows/cares, nothing they say should be taken seriously, or listened to at all for that matter.
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I’d imagine that the media in a particular country focus mainly on threats to that country. We’ve already seen Russia cutting off gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria. It’s threatened to bring nuclear weapons close to the Baltic sea in response to Finland abs Sweden joining NATO. It’s trying to destabilise Moldova, and it’s definitely made threats against the US for providing weapons. By and large I think most of those threats are empty, but are designed to be quotable by the media of the affected country and hopefully (for the Russians) change opinions.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I’d imagine that the media in a particular country focus mainly on threats to that country. We’ve already seen Russia cutting off gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria. It’s threatened to bring nuclear weapons close to the Baltic sea in response to Finland abs Sweden joining NATO. It’s trying to destabilise Moldova, and it’s definitely made threats against the US for providing weapons. By and large I think most of those threats are empty, but are designed to be quotable by the media of the affected country and hopefully (for the Russians) change opinions.
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Very true.

Also might be a repsonse to this, very nasty piece of kit.

 
Simbo said:
mad mad footage.

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In the NBC article posted earlier they talked about how they regularly move planes and AA installations around to avoid Russian attacks based on intel they get, sometimes at the last minute. It’s really impressive; I can’t imagine managing those logistics.
 
rpitroda said:
I’m getting pretty fed up of this now. I am fully cognisant of the risks and potential global impact of escalating this, but to my mind the time has come to enforce our way of life. Every minute this goes on, the more we embolden Russia and the more we give away and erode that ethos. Ukraine might not be in NATO but this is now beyond that fact. History has told us that people like Putin don’t settle for a bit. The more we don’t do enough, the more he feels he can do. It’s time to take another step in support in my view, and that’s at least more significant equipment provision and a no fly zone. As I said I’m fully aware of what that means, but it’s time.
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Russia are losing the war, they will collapse economically and never recover their military power during Putin's lifetime. So why escelate this now to a possible nuclear war?
 
Organic Potatoes said:
In the NBC article posted earlier they talked about how they regularly move planes and AA installations around to avoid Russian attacks based on intel they get, sometimes at the last minute. It’s really impressive; I can’t imagine managing those logistics.
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Its really impressive isn’t it? And at a guess a level of intelligence/coordination that the Russians never believed could happen. Which might go some way to explaining why the Russians seemed to assume, but haven’t yet achieved, air supremacy
 
The delivery of 50 German Gepard SPAAG seems to make progress. An issue was that there isn't much of it's 35mm ammo in stock (keep in mind this is a decommissioned system, so the Bundeswehr had no reason to keep it). But it looks like Ukraine now has a deal with Brazil in place to deliver the necessary ammo.

https://www.businessinsider.de/poli...r-fuer-ukraine-mit-300-000-schuss-ausstatten/

What I am still missing in this story is how long it will take to train Ukrainians on this system, as it is notoriously complicated (which is part of the reason why it was decommissioned). But I guess this won't be officially announced and we might only get to know this when the first video appears of Russian helicopters getting destroyed by it.
 
Simbo said:
Very true.

Also might be a repsonse to this, very nasty piece of kit.

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Saw a piece on the brimstone & apparently it’s quite easy to rig it to be launched from a truck. Not sure if they are sending the specific anti ship version though.
 
Reports that Russia have been making some gains of villages in the Donbass - does anyone know how much we should read into this? I am assuming it isn't a strategic gain.
 
Frosty said:
Reports that Russia have been making some gains of villages in the Donbass - does anyone know how much we should read into this? I am assuming it isn't a strategic gain.
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Slow, plodding gains. Reports of being harassed along their supply lines and unable to take full advantage of their advances (see post 28484).

 
Frosty said:
Reports that Russia have been making some gains of villages in the Donbass - does anyone know how much we should read into this? I am assuming it isn't a strategic gain.
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It’s all about stalemating them while Ukrainian armed forces are undergoing the intense training in Nato countries on all the new western toys they’ll be delivered. Arestovich (one of Zelensky advisers) suggests the impact from new weapons will become more and more evident by the late Maye/early June.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I’d imagine that the media in a particular country focus mainly on threats to that country. We’ve already seen Russia cutting off gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria. It’s threatened to bring nuclear weapons close to the Baltic sea in response to Finland abs Sweden joining NATO. It’s trying to destabilise Moldova, and it’s definitely made threats against the US for providing weapons. By and large I think most of those threats are empty, but are designed to be quotable by the media of the affected country and hopefully (for the Russians) change opinions.
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For your information, their nuclear heads have long been stationed in Kaliningrad.
 
Frosty said:
Reports that Russia have been making some gains of villages in the Donbass - does anyone know how much we should read into this? I am assuming it isn't a strategic gain.
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Gaining and holding are two different things.
 
Rajma said:
For your information, their nuclear heads have long been stationed in Kaliningrad.
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I know! But it didn’t stop Russia claiming it would nuclearise the area, and probably leaked it to the Scandinavian press. As I said, empty threats.
 
Youtube thought it was a good idea to watch this again, miss this guy.




"He's quite clearly embarked on a course of 1 man and 1 party rule, this is extremely dangerous" Yeh....
 
rpitroda said:
I’m getting pretty fed up of this now. I am fully cognisant of the risks and potential global impact of escalating this, but to my mind the time has come to enforce our way of life. Every minute this goes on, the more we embolden Russia and the more we give away and erode that ethos. Ukraine might not be in NATO but this is now beyond that fact. History has told us that people like Putin don’t settle for a bit. The more we don’t do enough, the more he feels he can do. It’s time to take another step in support in my view, and that’s at least more significant equipment provision and a no fly zone. As I said I’m fully aware of what that means, but it’s time.
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Impatience is a bad reason to go to war.
 
The German news magazine Der Spiegel speculates that Germany is sending some models of Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine and is also training Ukrainian soldiers on them. That would be a different calibre than the Gepard flak tank.
 
ColoRed said:
The German news magazine Der Spiegel speculates that Germany is sending some models of Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine and is also training Ukrainian soldiers on them. That would be a different calibre than the Gepard flak tank.
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I think it has been confirmed that Germany will send 155mm ammo to Ukraine and will train Ukrainians on the PzH 2000 in Germany.

However so far only the Netherlands have confirmed to send some units to Ukraine, if Germany should add some and would include the SMArt 155 ammunition this could be huge against Russian convoys etc. And I have some hope that this ammo type will be included in the deliveries as Germany hasn't withhold rare/sophisticated systems when available (like the DM-22 anti tank mine I posted about yesterday). (SMArt 155 has a range of up to 28km, descends on a parachute and can automatically detect and attack tanks etc - you just need to fire precise enough to get in range, but you do not need to directly fire onto the vehicle as you would need to with classic projectiles).
 
I know people are dismissing it as just bluster but all this Russian talk of nuclear warfare is creepy as feck. I understand that it's a different mentality in Russia but you'd think their citizens would be scared by this too and there'd be more internal pressure.

and yes i'm aware that any dissent is quickly cracked down upon but if enough people did it....
 
Simbo said:
They seem to quite like their Starlink and Brit/Swe NLAW's.

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Was about to post that thread. The part about the callousness towards their own comrades is kind of bizarre.

Irwin99 said:
I know people are dismissing it as just bluster but all this Russian talk of nuclear warfare is creepy as feck. I understand that it's a different mentality in Russia but you'd think their citizens would be scared by this too and there'd be more internal pressure.

and yes i'm aware that any dissent is quickly cracked down upon but if enough people did it....
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I think they might just buy the propaganda and not know better. They might think nuclear war is something Russia does to others, not something that can be done to Russia.
 
MTF said:
Was about to post that thread. The part about the callousness towards their own comrades is kind of bizarre.


I think they might just buy the propaganda and not know better. They might think nuclear war is something Russia does to others, not something that can be done to Russia.
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I have real trouble understanding that in an age of nuclear weapons and interconnected economies. The Cold War for example was all about a mutual fear of nuclear aggression, it's hardly likely that anyone of that era has forgotten that threat.

I guess I just find it hard to believe that when their government talks about nuclear war that citizens don't think "hang on a minute, this is insane".
 
Irwin99 said:
I know people are dismissing it as just bluster but all this Russian talk of nuclear warfare is creepy as feck. I understand that it's a different mentality in Russia but you'd think their citizens would be scared by this too and there'd be more internal pressure.

and yes i'm aware that any dissent is quickly cracked down upon but if enough people did it....
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Don't worry, it becomes less creepy when you know that Russia changes its message depending on the audience. To the West they're using nuclear threats to scare us but they're saying different things to India for example.

(According to a former diplomat I listened to)
 
Irwin99 said:
I guess I just find it hard to believe that when their government talks about nuclear war that citizens don't think "hang on a minute, this is insane".
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Thinking??? Thinking might get you in trouble. Better trust the Leader... leave all thinking to him.



(I am joking, but it happens in many authoritarian societies. That's why people loved Stalin, and he was sending them to the gulags by the millions. )
 
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