Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I don't forsee how Russia can escalate this at all really, the constant steady talk of escalation in the east ever since their Northern colapse just comes across as clickbait at this point.

Full mobilisation? Of who? Equipped with what? Ukraine has a surplus right now, the luxury of rotating reservists and turning away new recruits.
 
Some poignant thoughts from this guy, inside Mariupol steel plant.

 
No but your post is surely on the assumption that they are.

Just because they are the furthest left in American politics doesn’t mean they are at the extreme of the left side of the horse shoe. The horseshoe represents the entire political spectrum of which they are fairly close to the centre whereas the American right is fairly close to the extreme right.

So if you’re applying generic political theory it’s daft to suggest the squad are anywhere near the left horseshoe position that fringe republicans are taking up on the right.

No, my post was about the horseshoe theory of politics that was referenced. I didn't mention "The Squad", whom I don't see as being far left.

The far left are those who subscribe to communism or a variety of other Marxist-Leninist-Maoist thinking. But even amongst the 'soft left' there are more than a few who essentially look to undermine or distract from support for Ukraine by engaging in endless what-about-ism (what about the Palestinians, what about Ethiopia etc) and/or by trying to cast NATO as more or less morally equivalent to Russia.
 
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Love that piece of verse, so many ways to keep understanding it.
On your other poking though, when you talk about the ‘radical’ Left do you really include someone like AOC in that? I get that that is the insult thrown at her by the American right, but if she was a UK MP I doubt she’d be considered in any way radical.

No, I don't include AOC and 'the squad' in it. My post was about the horse-shoe theory of politics that was mentioned.
 
No, my post was about the horseshoe theory of politics that was referenced. I didn't mention "The Squad", whom I don't see as being far left.

The far left are those who subscribe to communism or a variety of other Marxist-Leninist thinking. But even amongst the 'soft left' there are more than a few who essentially look to undermine or distract from support for Ukraine by engaging in endless what-about-ism (what about the Palestinians, what about Ethiopia etc) and/or by trying to cast NATO as more or less morally equivalent to Russia.
Sorry I didn’t realise you were removing the house shoe theory from the context of the discussion and posting only about that concept.
 
I don't forsee how Russia can escalate this at all really, the constant steady talk of escalation in the east ever since their Northern colapse just comes across as clickbait at this point.

Full mobilisation? Of who? Equipped with what? Ukraine has a surplus right now, the luxury of rotating reservists and turning away new recruits.

Well (and even if we assume that nuclear escalation won't happen), Russia can escalate by formally declaring war on Ukraine, which will, amongst other things, allow Putin to conscript additional large numbers of Russians into the military.
 
I don't forsee how Russia can escalate this at all really, the constant steady talk of escalation in the east ever since their Northern colapse just comes across as clickbait at this point.

Full mobilisation? Of who? Equipped with what? Ukraine has a surplus right now, the luxury of rotating reservists and turning away new recruits.

I think they mean tactical nukes.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61257846

Germany essentially agrees to pay for Russian gas in rubles. Essentially giving EU sanctions and Ukraine the middle finger.

This is exactly what Putin wanted and expected to happen. Pathetic.
Question for our German posters: can the German government do something about a private company doing this? And if so, what are the chances that they will?
 
The horseshoe theory is such bs, no idea why some people buy into it. It's like saying giraffes and dogs both have legs and mouths, so they're pretty much the same. Really lazy.
 
Question for our German posters: can the German government do something about a private company doing this? And if so, what are the chances that they will?
As I understood the payments are done in Euro to Gazprombank in Switzerland. This is absolutely in line with the sanctions.

The interesting point seems to be that Gazprombank converts this into rubles and if the successful conversion is needed to consider the bill paid. It sounds like that's necessary and that might be against sanctions, but in the end we are talking about something a bank in Switzerland does, which isn't even part of the EU.

Not much leverage for the German state to do anything about this, sounds more like a topic for the Suisse.

The horseshoe theory is such bs, no idea why some people buy into it. It's like saying giraffes and dogs both have legs and mouths, so they're pretty much the same. Really lazy.
In the end it comes down to "radical idiots are idiots, no matter which ideology they follow"
 
The horseshoe theory is such bs, no idea why some people buy into it. It's like saying giraffes and dogs both have legs and mouths, so they're pretty much the same. Really lazy.

It isn't BS when it comes to the threat to democracy: both extremes want to see authoritarian government that rules by decrees that pander to their desires. It doesn't matter if these desire vary according to which set of extremists we're talking about, because the key thing they share is an opposition to democratic government.
 
No, I don't include AOC and 'the squad' in it. My post was about the horse-shoe theory of politics that was mentioned.

Fair enough, I thought you were including her specifically as on the extreme tip of the horseshoe, which I think would be inaccurate.
 
Well (and even if we assume that nuclear escalation won't happen), Russia can escalate by formally declaring war on Ukraine, which will, amongst other things, allow Putin to conscript additional large numbers of Russians into the military.

Have you seen any commentary analysing the likelihood of a full mobilisation? To my mind, it’s a last resort (other than you know what) - deeply unpopular and further cratering the economy by removing a large chunk of the workforce.
 
It's a correct theory in my view. Both the radical right and left don't really want or believe in democracy - what they want is an authoritarian government that will rule by decree in ways that favour their prejudices. This is why it's always essential to hold together the centre ground - ranging from centre-left to centre-right - as a political constituency. Otherwise ....

“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity …”


The Second Coming, by W. B. Yeats

Damn, someone should tell the anarchists they either

a) aren't radical

or

b) support authoritarian government

And honestly, that poem obviously has nothing to do with the Horseshoe theory.
 
Damn, someone should tell the anarchists they either

a) aren't radical

or

b) support authoritarian government

And honestly, that poem obviously has nothing to do with the Horseshoe theory.

Anarchism cannot be reduced to the flat left-right spectrum of politics - and it's the extremes of left and right that we've been discussing. Thus your post is irrelevant.

Moreover, the poem has a lot do with horse-shoe theory: it describes the collapse of the centre, torn asunder by extremist forces that have a mutual vested interest in doing so.
 
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Have you seen any commentary analysing the likelihood of a full mobilisation? To my mind, it’s a last resort (other than you know what) - deeply unpopular and further cratering the economy by removing a large chunk of the workforce.

I haven't, but if I had to guess I'd say it's coming. It's already happened in the break-away eastern regions that are not formally part of Russia.
 
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Anarchism has nothing do with the flat left-right spectrum of politics (to which not all political phenomena can be reduced) - and it's the extremes of left and right that we've been discussing. Thus your post is irrelevant.

Moreover, the poem has a lot do with horse-shoe theory: it describes the collapse of the centre, torn asunder by extremist forces.

The only thing this proves is that the left-right spectrum is flawed, which in no way helps your argument that there's some kind of specific centre to defend at all costs against the tyranny of the fringes. And while it is flawed, no serious political scientist will put the anarchists anywhere other than solidly on the left. And if you don't care about political scientists, ask some anarchists. They're about as radical left as it's possible to get. Certainly more radical than the Communists.

As for the poem, he's not saying what you're saying. For one, he's definitely not talking about democracy when he refers to the centre. For another, let's avoid using people who were born in the 1800s as some kind of arbiter of what the political (or moral) centre is. Yeats was a great poet, but he was also someone who admired Mussolini, supported eugenics, and flirted with fascism at times.
 
It isn't BS when it comes to the threat to democracy: both extremes want to see authoritarian government that rules by decrees that pander to their desires. It doesn't matter if these desire vary according to which set of extremists we're talking about, because the key thing they share is an opposition to democratic government.
I haven't, but if I had to guess I'd say it's coming. It's already happened in the break-away regions that are not formally part of Russia.

It will be very very difficult for Putin to order full mobilisation without looking like an obvious liar, having already referred to this as a limited special operation. I suspect that’s why he’s relying on foreign mercenaries, Chechens, those from Donbass etc, leaving some plausible deniability in Russia itself. I think it’s unlikely but who knows. Worth noting that full mobilisation is both very expensive and difficult to sustain too. And if your limiting factor militarily is how many heavy weapons, tanks etc you have then it’s not necessarily that helpful to have all these untrained men without a way to transport and defend them.
I do wonder if I’m saying that in hope more than expectation though.
 
I’d just like to add to this that this thread has become my go-to place for information and views, well done everyone!
 
It will be very very difficult for Putin to order full mobilisation without looking like an obvious liar, having already referred to this as a limited special operation. I suspect that’s why he’s relying on foreign mercenaries, Chechens, those from Donbass etc, leaving some plausible deniability in Russia itself. I think it’s unlikely but who knows. Worth noting that full mobilisation is both very expensive and difficult to sustain too. And if your limiting factor militarily is how many heavy weapons, tanks etc you have then it’s not necessarily that helpful to have all these untrained men without a way to transport and defend them.
I do wonder if I’m saying that in hope more than expectation though.
He won't look like a liar when he announces that the special operation became a war because NATO joined Ukraine to fight a full scale war against Russia. That would be a legit reason easily sold to the Russian public, and apparently their propaganda is already making those claims and therefore preparing for an official war.

Your other points look solid though.
 
It isn't BS when it comes to the threat to democracy: both extremes want to see authoritarian government that rules by decrees that pander to their desires. It doesn't matter if these desire vary according to which set of extremists we're talking about, because the key thing they share is an opposition to democratic government.

I vote for a far-left party here in Portugal. On their website it's easy to find articles criticizing Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. They always put forward legislation trying to get more people to vote (16 year olds voting, making it easier for immigrants, resident foreigners voting in local elections). They are the biggest proponents of more transparency in political decisions, often at odds with centrist parties. These are just 3 examples.

So if someone tells me I'm just as dangerous to democracy as someone who votes for chega, our far-right party, who are openly racist and homophobic, want to limit immigrant votes and praise strongmen like Trump or Bolsonaro... yeah sorry but it's bullshit. It's a very lazy way of generalizing without looking at anything specific.
 
In the end it comes down to "radical idiots are idiots, no matter which ideology they follow"

Well, idiots are idiots, sure, but that's not what people refer to when they mention horseshoe theory, it's radicals on both side are the same. They obviously aren't.
 
I vote for a far-left party here in Portugal. On their website it's easy to find articles criticizing Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. They always put forward legislation trying to get more people to vote (16 year olds voting, making it easier for immigrants, resident foreigners voting in local elections). They are the biggest proponents of more transparency in political decisions, often at odds with centrist parties. These are just 3 examples.

So if someone tells me I'm just as dangerous to democracy as someone who votes for chega, our far-right party, who are openly racist and homophobic, want to limit immigrant votes and praise strongmen like Trump or Bolsonaro... yeah sorry but it's bullshit. It's a very lazy way of generalizing without looking at anything specific.

Out of interest, do YOU believe that the party you vote for is ‘far left’, or is it a term that’s been given to them?
 
Out of interest, do YOU believe that the party you vote for is ‘far left’, or is it a term that’s been given to them?

I think they are far left. They were born of a mix of socialists, environmentalists, anarchists, trotskysts and dissidents of the communist party.

Unless we're only using the far-left tag for the old cliche of parties who want to overthrow the capitalist government and create a socialist new order. If that's the case, then I guess they're not far left.
 
The only thing this proves is that the left-right spectrum is flawed, which in no way helps your argument that there's some kind of specific centre to defend at all costs against the tyranny of the fringes. And while it is flawed, no serious political scientist will put the anarchists anywhere other than solidly on the left. And if you don't care about political scientists, ask some anarchists. They're about as radical left as it's possible to get. Certainly more radical than the Communists.

As for the poem, he's not saying what you're saying. For one, he's definitely not talking about democracy when he refers to the centre. For another, let's avoid using people who were born in the 1800s as some kind of arbiter of what the political (or moral) centre is. Yeats was a great poet, but he was also someone who admired Mussolini, supported eugenics, and flirted with fascism at times.

The left-right spectrum is flawed, I agree, because any analysis based solely on it excludes a lot of things (e.g. is it left-wing or right wing to be opposed to nuclear power, and why?).

But within the context of the original discussion, most political activists do identify as being somewhere on that spectrum, rightly or wrongly. And within that context there is mostly definitely a centre ground range, as well as extremes of both left and right. To deny this is ridiculous.

Regardless of what you claim about anarchism, it does not sit well on the left-right spectrum. For example, there are plenty of libertarians, especially in the U.S, who most certainly would not consider themselves left-wing, not to mention a variety of "survivalists" who oppose all forms of authority and favour extreme self-reliance.

It doesn't matter whether or not Yeats was specifically talking about democracy, because it's clear that that part of the poem is partly about extreme fringes vs a more moderate centre.
 
I vote for a far-left party here in Portugal. On their website it's easy to find articles criticizing Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, etc. They always put forward legislation trying to get more people to vote (16 year olds voting, making it easier for immigrants, resident foreigners voting in local elections). They are the biggest proponents of more transparency in political decisions, often at odds with centrist parties. These are just 3 examples.

So if someone tells me I'm just as dangerous to democracy as someone who votes for chega, our far-right party, who are openly racist and homophobic, want to limit immigrant votes and praise strongmen like Trump or Bolsonaro... yeah sorry but it's bullshit. It's a very lazy way of generalizing without looking at anything specific.

No-one is talking about each and every individual case, such as yours or such as the particular far-left party you mention. But in general terms it's true to say that far-left parties are not great supporters of democracy, which is why many of them for decades supported the old Soviet Union, and even now are extremely muted in any criticism of Russia.
 
No-one is talking about each and every individual case, such as yours or such as the particular far-left party you mention. But in general terms it's true to say that far-left parties are not great supporters of democracy, which is why many of them for decades supported the old Soviet Union, and even now are extremely muted in any criticism of Russia.

Exactly. Seems most 'socialist states' are run by tin-pot dictators.
 
I wonder if she is a little embarrassed by who her few bedfellows ended up being. Even Boebert supported it.