Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

That's good to hear.

At this stage, how anyone can believe Ukraine will ever be willing to demilitarize and drop its constitutional commitment to join NATO is beyond me.

I did like Zelensky's suggestion that he would have to put something of that nature to a national referendum. Its as good as just saying "Go feck yourself" while at the same time slapping them in the face with the thing they fear the most, democracy.
 
The Russians are apparently saying that they're going to focus on the Donbas. Looks likely that they'll take the entire region, then call it a victory and go home. It also seems like they want to stay in Mariupol, but whether annexed or part of Donbas or set up an even more puppet government than Donetsk and Luhansk, who knows. Maybe they'll just straight up annex Donbas and the area around Mariupol. The sanction cat is out of the bag already.

I gather that many of Ukraine's best troops are defending that region. Unless the Russians can encircle and cut those troops off from re-supply (which I think they'll find it difficult to do) the Russians are going to suffer massive losses in trying to occupy all of Donbas.
 
I gather that many of Ukraine's best troops are defending that region. Unless the Russians can encircle and cut those troops off from re-supply (which I think they'll find it difficult to do) the Russians are going to suffer massive losses in trying to occupy all of Donbas.

At this rate, I would expect the Russians to have trouble preventing the Ukrainians from winning back all of Donbas in a few weeks.
 
‘kin hell.
42881766_303.jpg
 
dont forget his drunken magnus opus
Daaaaaaamn!

Can you imagine how much of a shitstorm there would be if a top US Senator like Chuck Schumer or Mitch McConnell came up drunk at an event and used that many tropes to shit upon specific Russian and Chinese politicians? I swear Moscow and Beijing would be the first to moan, and that's not even counting the backlash in Western media.
 
Last edited:
I know Russian advancements have been based on poor tactics and assumptions but to be holding the ground against a vastly superior army (2nd largest in the world) for so long shows Ukraine would instantly be amongst very best fighters in Nato.
 
I gather that many of Ukraine's best troops are defending that region. Unless the Russians can encircle and cut those troops off from re-supply (which I think they'll find it difficult to do) the Russians are going to suffer massive losses in trying to occupy all of Donbas.
To encircle the Ukrainian forces in the JFO they'll have to basically link up from Donetsk all the way to Kharkiv, is that about right? Which would be a deeper advance than any achieved by the Russian army so far.
 


Big if true, mainly because of the speed they have got down there and taken back ground.

There have been opinions thrown around that Ukraine may have a much harder time on the offensive than they have on the defense, and will struggle to take back the likes of Kherson. We will see, there are (Ukrainian) reports of Russians retreating back over the antonovskiy bridge en masse. This one bridge is literally the only escape route for Russian forces, the only access to Kherson from the south/south east that Ukraine left intact for some reason.
 
I think his point is that we may already have to contemplate the Cold War 2.0 for as long as the likes of Xi and Putin want to feck the current world order up. The next cold war may well be all about autocracy vs. democracy instead of capitalism vs. communism.

Which side will the autocratic Middle Eastern states be on?
 


'Tactical retreat (for their lives) then. They won't get Kherson back at least, its an easy city to defend once Ukraine are actuallly prepared for it, which wasn't the case when it was overrun on day 2.

This means that although Russian forces may reinforce the east, Ukrainian forces will also be freed up to push east. Melitopol is the next target, if they can take that, the Maruipol attackers will have to immediately turn around to protect their rear.

Alternatively if they could just cut off the Crimean supply lines, that could pretty much shut down the western assault on Mariupol. I don't know to what extent their naval supply capability can replace it...
 
Which side will the autocratic Middle Eastern states be on?

At some point, screw all of those governments refusing to implement deep democratic reforms. I always believe the Arab Spring is still unachieved and has to be carried to the very end.
 
Russian tabloid newspaper reported 5 days ago nearly 9,000 Russians dead and more than 16,000 wounded (no mention of those surrendered, captured or deserted). The story was taken down within hours, and the story explained away as being a result of 'hacking'.

 
So, Abramovich is in Poland to meet the Americans (but not Biden).
 
So, Abramovich is in Poland to meet the Americans (but not Biden).
That's fairly standard, even if he's a bona fide emissary of Russia. Presidents usually meet in an official capacity with other Presidents, Foreign Ministers, or Ambassadors to their country. Of course I don't mean like an absolute exclusivity, as Presidents meet business leaders, might be with a governor or mayor of a foreign state or city on a visit, etc. But in these sorts of high diplomacy matters meetings are generally of the nature I described.