Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

sun_tzu said:
Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?
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I don't think anybody would care about the contracts. Putin can simply force a complete export stop on a national level, unless certain requirements are met, in this case, being paid in ruble.
 
sun_tzu said:
Interesting move

I'm not sure how thats going to work though as I doubt the contracts were written in a way that allows such a change?
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Yeah not sure except that I don't think Moscow cares about contractual matters. It's viewing this as a financial war and the only leverage they have is that Europe needs their energy for the moment whereas I think Moscow is prepared, short-term, to stop supply.
 
Suedesi said:
So, who's winning the war? Are we close to a deal or will this war of attrition continue?
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Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.
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China is the world's biggest market in population and 2nd/3d in GDP. That's why Corporates are very greedy and quick to support China and lobby against any actions toward them.

stefan92 said:
Minsk, Budapest... several treaties guaranteed Ukraine safety and were broken. They have very little reason to believe in anything the Russians promise.

So for Ukraine a peace treaty might just be understood as "people will die later in the next war" instead of "people won't die".
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Not this time, especially if they have a quick path to EU and the West can keep the sanctions on Russia's regime.
 
Putin is not cutting off any oil or gas. He has a war to fund.

His army will fall apart rather quickly without EU fuel money.
 
Suedesi said:
So, who's winning the war? Are we close to a deal or will this war of attrition continue?
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Don't know who's winning, but many are losing. I think reparations are more critical to a peace-deal than some believe. Link reparations to sanctions relief, and you might get a deal that works for each side. But Kyiv will want Russia, rightfully, to pay for the cost of rebuilding.



In other news, many experts on Ukrainian side are expecting Belarus to invade from the West, shoring up the encirclement of Kyiv. It's been touted for the past seven to ten days. Diplomatic expulsion, tit-for-tat, hints at it happening soon.
 
Pintu said:
Not this time, especially if they have a quick path to EU and the West can keep the sanctions on Russia's regime.
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Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.
 
stefan92 said:
Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.
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they will just fudge it like they did with the Euro criteria for countries though wont they
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Yeah not sure except that I don't think Moscow cares about contractual matters. It's viewing this as a financial war and the only leverage they have is that Europe needs their energy for the moment whereas I think Moscow is prepared, short-term, to stop supply.
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Stoping supply might be suicidal for Russia. They have no other clients for their gas.

RedDevilQuebecois said:
Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.
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Ukrainian army did make some progress around Kyiv (which is encouraging) but Russia is still the dominating force and "surrounded" seems to be somewhat hyperbolic.

 
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RedDevilQuebecois said:
Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.
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It's in this context that I'm reading the Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the South and East. If Belarus enters and moves toward Kyiv, it gives Russia almost complete upperhand in the ground-war all across Ukraine (supposing the Belarusian army to be competent).

Pintu said:
Stoping supply might be suicidal for Russia. They have no other clients for their gas.
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I agree but I think it's "more" suicidal for Europe. The Russians are isolated in a way Europe has avoided so far. Stop supply and Russia's economy will take another battering, but it's already being battered. On the other hand, Europe's economy will tank almost overnight. The ruble clause might be the "get out" for each side.
 
stefan92 said:
Let's say it this way: strategically it makes sense for Ukraine to beat Russia as hard as they can to buy themselves enough time to properly join the EU and become part of its defence structure. And make no mistake it will take years for that corrupt oligarchy (yes, I'm talking about Ukraine) to evolve enough to properly get into EU.

They have to be sure Russia can't take revenge in the meantime, and the more Russian military and economy gets destroyed, the more likely it is that they get enough time.
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Also more likely Russia becomes set on revenge

Most wars are not settled with marching into the other capital and raising a flag they are a negotiated settlement first a ceasefire and then some point later (or not like with north korea) a peace treaty

Im pretty sure that as part of the neutrality / buffer state Russia is pushing for they will not only focus on Nato membership but also EU ... and I really dont think there is a limit to how many kids putin will bomb to get his way ... so sadly he probably will get his way
 
sun_tzu said:
they will just fudge it like they did with the Euro criteria for countries though wont they
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I don't think that the EU interest to let Ukraine join is that big to be honest. Especially the Baltic states and Poland are very interested in beating Russia to get rid of a dangerous neighbour, but will the EU as a whole be that motivated to include Ukraine once the war is over? There will be doubts and skepticism all over it.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
It's in this context that I'm reading the Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the South and East. If Belarus enters and moves toward Kyiv, it gives Russia almost complete upperhand in the ground-war all across Ukraine (supposing the Belarusian army to be competent).
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It isn't.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Nowhere near a deal yet. As for the war, it looks like the Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian army group in the Northwest of Kyiv while it is a stalemate on other fronts. If it remains a stalemate, then it is an excellent leverage for Ukraine because their government/army still stands while the Russian invasion is not meeting its objectives on top of losing morale. The real question mark is what Putin will do because the bald cnut may try using illegal warfare (chemical and nuclear) if he's backed in a corner.
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I think we still need to wait for more confirmation of this before treating it like undisputed fact.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.
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That's virtually impossible. China is a completely different situation than Russia, where the economic integration is mostly just based on resource exportation. That is a vastly different scenario than China where 50 years of globalism have integrated the Chinese and western economies in such a way across so many sectors that what you suggest just isn't realistic in any way. A world where the west is entirely self-sufficient to the point it could cut all economic ties with China with minimal impact is very far away from the world we live in today.

It's not even desirable really because that integration also serves to keep China aligned more with global prosperity. A China that cut off from the west would have less incentives to keep the peace overall.
 
Abizzz said:
While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.
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GlastonSpur said:
I don't know much about such things, but isn't the lack of a greater decline in the ruble only because the Russian central bank has been busy propping it up with what are now dwindling foreign exchange reserves? If so, they won't be able to continue to do that for too much longer.
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Only accepting Rubles as payment for gas is their way of propping up their currency exactly because their foreign reserves will only last so long. If other countries agree to this, which they likely won't, they would have to buy Rubles at the respective exchange rate which would stabilise it somewhat.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
There was that thing named the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It was the opportunity for several countries in the Pacific area to gain an economic leverage against China until the big fat orange cnut scrapped all of that like a fecking idiot. The next step for the US/West is to revive and then expand such partnership eventually.

For the record, Huawei has been severely crippled since their little princess was put under arrest in Canada on top of the fact that a bunch of illegal actions by Huawei have come to the surface. They have lost several contracts for 5G networks.

If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.
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I'm no economist, but something tells me that exiling the second largest economy will pose a couple of problems.

Nah. Unfortunately we are stuck.
 
Dans said:
You forgot East Berlin.
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Yes please, just give them the whole of Berlin. No better way to ruin a state from the inside than giving them that preposterous incompetent cash burner.
 
sun_tzu said:
apparently the host cities for 2032 are Moscow, St Petersberg, Kyiv, Tallin, Warsaw and Helsinki
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They should award it to Kyiv. And a special bye into the forthcoming World Cup finals should now also be give to the Ukrainian national team .
 
The BBC reports:

"Almost all of the town of Irpin, which has seen fierce fighting in recent weeks, is in Ukrainian hands, the mayor of Kyiv has said.

Earlier in March, thousands of residents fled Irpin, which is just 20km (12 miles) north-west of Kyiv, across the remnants of a blown-up bridge as Russian artillery and air strikes pummelled the area.

Vitali Klitschko told journalists Ukrainian forces had pushed back troops there and also in the town of Makariv, west of Kyiv.

He said Ukrainian forces had "destroyed the plan to make a circle around Kyiv".
 
White phosphorous bombs clearly being used by Russian forces in Irpin as a desperate reaction to losing ground there.

Utterly despicable move from Kremlin. These are banned under the Geneva Convention.
 
LDUred said:
White phosphorous bombs clearly being used by Russian forces in Irpin as a desperate reaction to losing ground there.

Utterly despicable move from Kremlin. These are banned under the Geneva Convention.
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yes but apparently using White phosphorous flairs for night vision (in broad daylight) the remnents of which fall down and burn civilians is totally fine - or at least it was in Falluja

US forces yesterday made their clearest admission yet that white phosphorus was used as a weapon against insurgents in Iraq. A Pentagon spokesman told the BBC last night that it had been used as "an incendiary weapon" during the assault last year on Falluja in 2004.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2... yesterday made their,year on Falluja in 2004.
 
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