Not a good look for Putin if he accuses his own Defence Minister of treason. It would only add to unease amongst the Russian public.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Not a good look for Putin if he accuses his own Defence Minister of treason. It would only add to unease amongst the Russian public.
Anyone working for Putin that's not family is expendable. If they fail to realise that, they won't live long.
Contracts, really, does anyone think Russia cares about pieces of papers or legality. Are we living in our computer rooms?
I was thinking more about the buyers
If there was a facility in the contract that allowed the currency to be changed with a weeks notice then I can see them going along with it
But I expect there isn't so I can't see people doing it
What's crazy to me (with my limited understanding) is how the Russian ground forces seemingly cannot exploit any penetration. It makes sense not to waste resources on taking a town like Kharkiv if you want to get past it, advance all the way to like Dnipro, and then basically cut off the Ukranian forces in the Donbass. But they haven't shown the ability or intention to make those thrusts. It's like war in slow motion, as if they didn't study their own Great Patriotic War.
I’ll really fear when they go far back and dig in, makes me think some tactical wmd will be used.
hey? Even if there was a facility or no facility if I am Russian I will say if you want gas then pay in rubles if not feck off.
The EU is trying to convince Germany and Hungary to accept an oil embargo and Putin comes in and helps by cutting the gas anyway? Also, doesn't this free the EU to cut the remaining Russian banks from SWIFT?
It doesn't make sense for them, especially when they need the money to keep the war going.
That is bizarre request. Why can't they buy roubles with the euro they get from the gas contracts themselves ? The effect will be the same. Also, at the moment Russsia needs money more than Europe needs gas.
An upper end estimate of 15,000 dead Russians. If that many are actually dead, it would suggest 60,000 Russian troops now out of action - not far short of one third of their entire estimated invasion force of 190k.
Usually gas contracts give Europeans a theoretical OPTION to pay in rubles instead of EUR/USD (which is never exercised I think), but there is no obligation and Russians cannot contractually force them to switch currency. So that would be completely at the discretion of Europeans.
Putin is just being nasty and trying to show he is serious. Such things might make headlines, but in the grand scheme of things payment in rubles does not make a huge difference - the demand for rubles on foreign exchange market will just be now generated by Europeans instead of Gazprom (plus some gas is also purchased on spot market vs LT contracts) . The slight difference is that the new situation would basically be equivalent to russian government forcing Gazprom to sell 100% of foreign currency gas revenues (and they already force to sell 80% since the beginning of war anyway).
Now all of this assuming that Europeans would go along and buy rubles and pay with them. There are indications already that many won't and I do not think that Russia would reject euro payments, hurting themselves (but i guess last month proved that you cannot be sure about such things when it comes to Russia).
Anyway mid- and long-term it just further undermines credibility of Russia as a supplier, raises more fears that it might stop providing gas altogether and acts as a further incentive for Europe to forgo Russian oil and gas asap to avoid pain from sudden switch-off.
So what's the alternative ?
Coal ?
Iran ?
The US wants to get back in Maduro's good books and wants the nuclear deal with Iran done to get Iranian oil back on the market but the Iranians don't seem too keen. Saudi and OPEC aren't playing ball and neither is China and that's just the oil. What about the natural gas ?
Been doing a little reading on the Russian battalion tactical group concept and what it’s limitations are, and honestly they really do start to fall apart when you get into urban terrain. The BTG has a very small infantry component, backed by a relatively small amount of combat vehicles. They’re not capable of sustaining the types of losses that are to be expected in an urban combat environment.
Here’s a great essay on the Russian BTG vs US BCT concept. It includes a good chart showing what kind of casualties each can sustain before becoming combat ineffective.
https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf
Here’s a great essay on the Russian BTG vs US BCT concept. It includes a good chart showing what kind of casualties each can sustain before becoming combat ineffective.
https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf
Are Russian troops up against huge numbers of Ukrainians?
They said that Ukrainian men couldn't leave the country and would have to defend the country, so in the capital, in theory there could be 3k Russian troops up against 18k Ukrainian troops/armed personnel?
Just trying to work out whether this is the Russians being shite, or them just up against a HUGE number.
They said that Ukrainian men couldn't leave the country and would have to defend the country, so in the capital, in theory there could be 3k Russian troops up against 18k Ukrainian troops/armed personnel?
Just trying to work out whether this is the Russians being shite, or them just up against a HUGE number.
While there are a lot of volounteers, I assume most people still haven't been armed. Before these men become active combatants they need to be trained and armed, which will take time.
I don’t understand, Israel literally depends on the US for everything but they don’t seem bothered about biting the hand that feeds them. Russia is basically on the same side as them in Syria, however Russia doesn’t stand a chance in a conventional encounter with Israel based on their ability to wage war in Ukraine
I can kind of understand India’s position of walking a tightrope, but Israel is being pathetic. Maybe they just don’t want the world’s scorn turned on them, as questions will be asked of their own attitude to killing civilians.
Lots of Russians in Israel, might be that too.
Europe can actually forgo Russian gas entirely, it all depends on the price it is prepared to pay. But I have not seen any estimations that say that it would trigger some horrible unprecedented crisis. Recession, yes - but for instance for Germany (one of the most Russian-gas-dependent countries) the worst case estimate is 3% fall in GDP and every German on average would be poorer by 1000 EUR IN TOTAL over all the crisis time (so nor per month/year), which is bearable (milder than covid of 2008-09 crises) as long as the government can help the poorest.
It is not that it is not enough gas in the world without Russia, the price will just spike a lot until the alternative sources are developed - maybe you would need temporary rationing to make sure households have it and the industries that use gas heavily like chemistry bear the brunt - but economists disagree on whether rationing would be needed. Any solution would be a combination of increased liquefied natural gas imports from the US/Qatar etc via sea (problem is that you need a couple of years to build terminals), more renewables and energy efficiency. If Europe really commits and is prepared to endure pain for a couple of years it can do it. Whether a complete ban would stop Putin is another question, of course.
See my post above about the BTG’s limitations. It could explain why they’re unable to exploit gains… they could be losing too many men / material in the initial assault to be able to execute any kind of immediate follow up operations.
The actual audio of the radio intercepts (with translation) is given here: https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008266864/russia-army-radio-makariv.html
Which are all very costly and would definitely push energy to a stage where it effects the average person more than 1000 EUR over the crisis time. I mean gas prices surged 34% just after the announcement that he wanted to sell gas in roubles.
Imagine when there's no Russian gas in Europe.
Renewables and energy efficiency measures are cheaper than gas...they don't require any fuel for one thing.
They aren't actually cheaper, they're about the same price.
But they also require fossil fuels to make.
Terrorist tactics.
Yep. It was also an Al-Qaeda tactic against Shi’a in Iraq. Detonate a VBIED in a heavily populated civilian area, wait for first responders to arrive, then detonate a second VBIED nearby. Mass carnage every time.
All of this was included in 1000 EUR estimate already, they of course considered not only the direct price effects, would have been pretty amateurish to do so
The one-time increase (it was close to 20% actually) does not translate to automatic increase in what Europe pays, not all the gas is bought on the spot market, some is bought via long-term contracts which do not correspond to current price one-to-one. Plus as the energy sources are replaced, gas prices would go down. But above all, historically it wasn't energy price shocks that triggered the biggest recessions like Great Depression/2008-2009/covid. 70s recessions/stagflation was bad but not as bad - and let us not forget that oil prices were jumping at least as much as now if not more at the time. My point is that we are likely talking about average-sized recession as a price to pay at worst but not some massive collapse.Also: The Kingdom with Jamie Foxx
The BBC reports:
"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce on Thursday that the UK will provide Ukraine with about 6,000 extra missiles.
At the Nato and G7 leaders' meetings in Brussels, Johnson will also unveil £25m ($33m) of funding to help pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots.
The UK government will also provide £4.1m for the BBC World Service to help support its Ukrainian and Russian language services in the region.
"The United Kingdom will work with our allies to step up military and economic support to Ukraine, strengthening their defences as they turn the tide in this fight," Johnson said.
"One month into this crisis, the international community faces a choice. We can keep the flame of freedom alive in Ukraine, or risk it being snuffed out across Europe and the world."
Britain said the new package will come on top of around 4,000 missiles already provided by the UK to Ukrainian forces.
The latest funding is in addition to £400m already committed in humanitarian and economic aid, said UK officials."
"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce on Thursday that the UK will provide Ukraine with about 6,000 extra missiles.
At the Nato and G7 leaders' meetings in Brussels, Johnson will also unveil £25m ($33m) of funding to help pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots.
The UK government will also provide £4.1m for the BBC World Service to help support its Ukrainian and Russian language services in the region.
"The United Kingdom will work with our allies to step up military and economic support to Ukraine, strengthening their defences as they turn the tide in this fight," Johnson said.
"One month into this crisis, the international community faces a choice. We can keep the flame of freedom alive in Ukraine, or risk it being snuffed out across Europe and the world."
Britain said the new package will come on top of around 4,000 missiles already provided by the UK to Ukrainian forces.
The latest funding is in addition to £400m already committed in humanitarian and economic aid, said UK officials."
First thing I thought of. They killed Coach Taylor. Good flick.
That sound you just heard was Fox News and the Trumplican Party shitting a collective brick
Definitely would recommend it. It is solidly in my “I’m bored today so what can I watch?” rotation.
I’m becoming a fan of Anonymous.
Don't envy the aide trying explaining to Putin that Anonymous do not have a fixed location and can't be nuked.
Let's hope so - Tucker Carlson in particular, when they reveal nice little monthly "additions" to his bank account.