Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

frostbite said:
Bullshit. The best that any NATO country would have hoped for, is to have peace and prosperity and the Stock Market to go up. That's how politicians get elected in the West. If you think that Biden wanted this you don't know what you are talking about! Biden was forced to do something, but he'd prefer to just forget Afghanistan and have no more wars during his presidency.
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I literally started my answer with ‘Nobody wanted war’ which you seem to have completely ignored.
 
Precaution said:
Certainly doesn't help when Twitter reveals his whereabouts like asif a Man's life is some kinda game for sticking up what he believes in, I sure hope Putin is stuck on the Twitter verify he's not a robot page.
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He's using an ATM. That's not exactly a great way to move around unnoticed.
 
frostbite said:
Bullshit. The best that any NATO country would have hoped for, is to have peace and prosperity and the Stock Market to go up. That's how politicians get elected in the West. If you think that Biden wanted this you don't know what you are talking about! Biden was forced to do something, but he'd prefer to just forget Afghanistan and have no more wars during his presidency.
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I don't think Biden wanted this war, but it seems like the West would rather see the war drag on than for it to end quickly with some sort of a new Minsk agreement.

This article explains it well... And why it might not be a good strategy.

 
Dr. Dwayne said:
He's using an ATM. That's not exactly a great way to move around unnoticed.
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Given the circumstances, you'd forgive him for not walking into a Russian bank with an empty briefcase moments before boarding an out of country flight. Wire transfers aren't exactly ideal at the moment either.
 
Pintu said:
I don't think Biden wanted this war, but it seems like the West would rather see the war drag on than for it to end quickly with some sort of a new Minsk agreement.

This article explains it well... And why it might not be a good strategy.

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This is pretty obvious since no one can trust Putin to abide by any agreement. All it would do is needlessly prolong his regime, during which he would continue fomenting chaos in the region until someone finally puts him out of his misery.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Exactly this. If you think the West didnt see this coming then you are wrong. Loads of people have been warning the West for decades about Russia. Putin already literally already invaded Ukraine in 2008. Everyone in Ukraine is not exactly surprised and they have been preparing for this for years so why are we? Its the same with China. Loads of people warning about China. And the evidence is already there - Genocide of the Uyghurs, Hong Kong, Tibet etc. So you have to ask yourselves why we let them do it and why we let them build stronger an stronger. Answer - because the elite are making a sht load of cash from it.
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We let the Russia invade Ukraine it because it was not possible to stop it short of sending NATO military to engage in direct combat with Russians and thereby risking nuclear escalation. Is that what you suggest we should have done?

Hong Kong was handed back to China as a per a very long-standing treaty agreement between the UK and China. Do you suggest we should have broken the treaty and sent troops to defend Hong Kong?

Re. the Uyghurs, again what do you suggest we do? Send NATO troops to invade that part of China?

Tibet was annexed in the 1950s - 70 years ago. It's a bit late to do anything about it now.
 
Pintu said:
I don't think Biden wanted this war, but it seems like the West would rather see the war drag on than for it to end quickly with some sort of a new Minsk agreement.

This article explains it well... And why it might not be a good strategy.

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Do you think Ukraine wants a new Minsk after everything that happened?
 
frostbite said:
Oh, come on. If Putin demands Poland and East Germany "or else...", are you going to hand them to him? Of course not. There are always red lines. Nobody wants a nuclear war, not even a crazy dictator like Putin. Putin always calculated what the West will (not) do. He calculated correctly in Georgia and Crimea. He miscalculated now. If he knew that USAF will definitely bomb any Russians invading Ukraine, he would never dare to invade it. He decided to invade Ukraine only after he saw that USA left Afghanistan in such a messy way that it signalled "we don't want any wars, we want peace".
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Yes, there are always red lines - they exist on a long-standing basis in relation to NATO countries and require military back-up that takes time to put in place. It's not practical or sensible to suddenly invent new red lines on the hoof.

I prefer not to rely on your mere belief that sending NATO troops into Ukraine would have prevented Putin's invasion and not led a significant risk of nuclear escalation.
 
sglowrider said:
I would imagine he would be using his private banker get cash out for him. If he is doing it himself he must be pretty low down the totem pole.
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He's probably low enough to where he hasn't been sanctioned, which means he can still withdraw cash from his non-Russian accounts (ie. his assets haven't been frozen).
 
Raoul said:
Given the circumstances, you'd forgive him for not walking into a Russian bank with an empty briefcase moments before boarding an out of country flight. Wire transfers aren't exactly ideal at the moment either.
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Oh for sure, but you'd think a person who was opposed to this action would have made plans ahead of time. Using ATMs, debit cards and credit cards is the easiest way to reveal your location.
 
GlastonSpur said:
We let the Russia invade Ukraine it because it was not possible to stop it short of sending NATO military to engage in direct combat with Russians and thereby risking nuclear escalation. Is that what you suggest we should have done?

Hong Kong was handed back to China as a per a very long-standing treaty agreement between the UK and China. Do you suggest we should have broken the treaty and sent troops to defend Hong Kong?

Re. the Uyghurs, again what do you suggest we do? Send NATO troops to invade that part of China?

Tibet was annexed in the 1950s - 70 years ago. It's a bit late to do anything about it now.
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Im not suggesting we bomb the sht out of Russia or China. But sucking up to them is not the greatest plan is it? The West needs to be independent of dictatorships. China, Russia etc. Maybe easier said then done but its a matter of when not if they go fking nuts and we need a plan to survive without them
 
UpWithRivers said:
Im not suggesting we bomb the sht out of Russia or China. But sucking up to them is not the greatest plan is it? The West needs to be independent of dictatorships. China, Russia etc. Maybe easier said then done but its a matter of when not if they go fking nuts and we need a plan to survive without them
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China is one of the most integrated economies in the world. How do you propose being 'independent' from it? They have around €400billion invested just in Europe.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Im not suggesting we bomb the sht out of Russia or China. But sucking up to them is not the greatest plan is it? The West needs to be independent of dictatorships. China, Russia etc. Maybe easier said then done but its a matter of when not if they go fking nuts and we need a plan to survive without them
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Russia is now the most sanctioned nation on Earth - in a few months their economy will be in ruins. NATO supplied weapons to Ukraine are having a devastating effect on Russia's invasion force. Europe is now moving as fast as possible to reduce oil and gas reliance on Russia. NATO is ramping up defences in all front-line NATO countries. Germany is now massively increasing its defence spending.

So let's talk about the here-and-now, rather than the past.
 
Pintu said:
I don't think Biden wanted this war, but it seems like the West would rather see the war drag on than for it to end quickly with some sort of a new Minsk agreement.

This article explains it well... And why it might not be a good strategy.

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What would you say are the alternatives though? Escalation at the risk of nuclear conflict? Withdrawal of military aid/sanctions? Pressurise Ukraine to sue for peace on whatever terms Russia chooses to offer?
 
Rektsanwalt said:
those videos with such a tune make me fecking vomit to be honest
vibin' while peoples bodies get exploded
not my cuppa tea, it's completely tasteless shit
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Its a terrible track as well. They would've been better off with some arrows that showed what sort of vehicles are getting blown up, when/where, what kind of drone Turkish or other) etc.
 
sglowrider said:
China is one of the most integrated economies in the world. How do you propose being 'independent' from it? They have around €400billion invested just in Europe.
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Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
those videos with such a tune make me fecking vomit to be honest
vibin' while peoples bodies get exploded
not my cuppa tea, it's completely tasteless shit
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I agree about the sound-track thing.

But the main point is that the video shows the Ukrainians successfully fighting back. And whilst I feel sorry for the Russian troops being ordered to fight in a war that most of them probably don't want or understand, the Ukrainians are fighting for their very survival as a free nation.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Russia is now the most sanctioned nation on Earth - in a few months their economy will be in ruins. NATO supplied weapons to Ukraine are having a devastating effect on Russia's invasion force. Europe is now moving as fast as possible to reduce oil and gas reliance on Russia. NATO is ramping up defences in all front-line NATO countries. Germany is now massively increasing its defence spending.

So let's talk about the here-and-now, rather than the past.
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The world needs the US to start producing crucial medicine in the US or other stable democracies, along with lots of other crucial items.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Russia is now the most sanctioned nation on Earth - in a few months their economy will be in ruins. NATO supplied weapons to Ukraine are having a devastating effect on Russia's invasion force. Europe is now moving as fast as possible to reduce oil and gas reliance on Russia. NATO is ramping up defences in all front-line NATO countries. Germany is now massively increasing its defence spending.

So let's talk about the here-and-now, rather than the past.
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I am talking about the here and now. We are still supporting and sucking up to dictatorships governments. China, Saudis etc. Im not saying go to War with them but we need a long term strategy to deal with them.
 
UpWithRivers said:
Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.
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China isn't going to be invading Taiwan any time soon. They'll have seen in Ukraine what happens to attackers against determined defenders - and Taiwan is stuffed to the gills with sophisticated weapons, 100 miles away across open sea.

Moreover, China is now hugely integrated into the global economy - any major disruption to that would have major effects on both them and the West. They (China) will think twice before making any move that puts their economy at risk.

I agree, however, that reducing depending on China should be the long-term goal.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:


Kremlin says no more energy unless you trade in rubles.
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While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.
 
TMDaines said:
The Ruble has recovered all the way back to 130 versus the Pound. You only get 19.23% more Rubles for a Pound than you did a month ago.
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That's insane when you think about it.
Abizzz said:
While that's done to strengthen the rubel doesn't it weaken Russia? If I were paying up in Rubles I'd pay to the exchange rate that was effective when the price was negotiated... With the ruble now being worth substantially less that must result in much lower payments!?

Don't think this was well thought out by the little goblin in Moscow.
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Only going by what's been written so far, my guess is that Moscow is thinking they have less to lose. They'd be almost willing to hit financial nuclear button whereas Europe isn't (Kremlin sort of already has with its invasion and sanctions reaction). Also, basic idea behind it seems to be to keep trading in rubles a thing, even if only by necessity.
 
sport2793 said:
Do you think Ukraine wants a new Minsk after everything that happened?
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I have no idea. But if I were Ukrainian I'd rather see some sort of a "just" peace treaty with Russia reached sooner rather than later, sparing as many innocent lives as possible, saving entire cities that would undoubtedly get destroyed if the war continues... The military "victory" is too far and too costly.

And if we want to protect Ukraine (and Moldova and Georgia) without going to war, the new agreement should not prevent keeping the sanctions on the Russian regime. Keeping the sanctions and extending them to the energy sector will make sure that Putin won't have the capacity to invade another country again.

Raoul said:
This is pretty obvious since no one can trust Putin to abide by any agreement. All it would do is needlessly prolong his regime, during which he would continue fomenting chaos in the region until someone finally puts him out of his misery.
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We can't trust Putin, but the US & EU can learn from their Crimea's mistakes. Sanctions back then were too soft and allowed Putin to prepare for this war. Keep the economical pressure on, go further, make it smarter and as painful as possible for the regime. But I am not convinced of the strategy, especially when we are not giving Ukraine any game changing war material. We are just giving them enough to keep fighting and bleed Russia dry. But this might take forever. A determined occupation power can keep on for years if they aren't forced out. The Israeli “Operation Peace for the Galilee” wasn't supposed to turn into a 20 years occupation of south Lebanon with countless massacres of civilians. And Israel only recognised it as a war 38 years after the invasion and 20 years after the 2000 withdrawal (another similarity with the Russia, still calling this "special operation").
 
UpWithRivers said:
Exactly the problem. Its not easy but at the end of the day they are unstable and we will have to deal with it one day. What happens if they support Russia? What happens when they take Taiwan. How many times are we going to turn a blind eye like we did with Russia. There is loads we can do its just a matter of will. The West needs to come together under one economic partnership. We need to move manufacturing and resources etc under that umbrella and become independent of dictatorships. We should be in a position when China does some stupid sht like Russia we should be able to cut off economic ties straight away and have minimal economic impact. But if they are running our 5G networks and supply all our pharmacuticals etc then if they help Russia in the next few weeks we are fkd and surely we shouldn't be in that situation because what are we going to do? Nothing much. Maybe tut tut at them and throw a sanction thats meaningless like no more importing of straws or something. They have us by the balls.
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There was that thing named the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It was the opportunity for several countries in the Pacific area to gain an economic leverage against China until the big fat orange cnut scrapped all of that like a fecking idiot. The next step for the US/West is to revive and then expand such partnership eventually.

For the record, Huawei has been severely crippled since their little princess was put under arrest in Canada on top of the fact that a bunch of illegal actions by Huawei have come to the surface. They have lost several contracts for 5G networks.

If private companies were not greedy, they would be able to see that China is a market worth dropping in the long run as several countries nearby can do a similar job without stirring shit politically. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the likes are in a good position if economical decoupling from China has to be accelerated.
 
sglowrider said:
I would imagine he would be using his private banker get cash out for him. If he is doing it himself he must be pretty low down the totem pole.
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He was responsible for the entire privatisation (THE privatisation). He's one of the most influential political figures in post-Soviet Russia even though he's not very active anymore.
 
Pintu said:
I have no idea. But if I were Ukrainian I'd rather see some sort of a "just" peace treaty with Russia reached sooner rather than later, sparing as many innocent lives as possible, saving entire cities that would undoubtedly get destroyed if the war continues... The military "victory" is too far and too costly.
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Minsk, Budapest... several treaties guaranteed Ukraine safety and were broken. They have very little reason to believe in anything the Russians promise.

So for Ukraine a peace treaty might just be understood as "people will die later in the next war" instead of "people won't die".
 
TMDaines said:
The Ruble has recovered all the way back to 130 versus the Pound. You only get 19.23% more Rubles for a Pound than you did a month ago.
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I don't know much about such things, but isn't the lack of a greater decline in the ruble only because the Russian central bank has been busy propping it up with what are now dwindling foreign exchange reserves? If so, they won't be able to continue to do that for too much longer.
 
Pintu said:
We can't trust Putin, but the US & EU can learn from their Crimea's mistakes. Sanctions back then were too soft and allowed Putin to prepare for this war. Keep the economical pressure on, go further, make it smarter and as painful as possible for the regime. But I am not convinced of the strategy, especially when we are not giving Ukraine any game changing war material. We are just giving them enough to keep fighting and bleed Russia dry. But this might take forever. A determined occupation power can keep on for years if they aren't forced out. The Israeli “Operation Peace for the Galilee” wasn't supposed to turn into a 20 years occupation of south Lebanon with countless massacres of civilians. And Israel only recognised it as a war 38 years after the invasion and 20 years after the 2000 withdrawal (another similarity with the Russia, still calling this "special operation").
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Yes, indeed. Obama was too soft and feckless in his sanctions.
 
If the EU says no to paying in rubles, are Russia going to cut oil and gas? I doubt it.

I guess if they do, it makes Germany and Hungary's resistance to an oil embargo fairly pointless
 
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