Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This was the hope when Putin to over from Yeltsin after the corrupt, wild west 90s. A lot of western leaders at the time rather naively thought of Putin as a "tough administrator" willing to make the hard decisions to purge domestic corruption and bring Russia closer to democratic and pluralistic European standard. What they didn't realize is that Putin would simply used his power to megalomaniacally formalize the nonsense of the 90s into state sponsored corruption to meet his venal, neo-imperialist interests; which is precisely what one might have predicted when gifting control of a nation to a KGB officer.

Had he been the guy western leaders hoped and expected, he could set in motion a series of technocratic reforms that used Russia's vast energy resources to gradually divest and diversify away from oil and gas, and towards other sources of revenue; much as some of the Gulf states are doing. Instead, we are where we are today because the guy who replaced Yeltsin turned out to be an organized crime figure masquerading as a statesman.

Russia is a completely different country now to what it was in the 1990s.

You can say a lot of things about Putin, but the country is far more modern and the living standard of the average Russian is far higher than it was at it's nadir during the US-imposed economic reordering of the 1990s. He hasn't stopped corruption, and he's obviously incredibly corrupt himself, but he has made oligarchs pay tax and used it to fund domestic programmes.

This is a useful lens to view the current US - Russian relations too. Most of the current Russian administration are haunted by their experiences during the 90s and are motivated to never again be in a position where the US can impose terms, ignore them, or treat them as a joke. Putin's domestic policies have won him a lot of support in the country, and the 'optics' of being seen publicly to face off against the west and not back down is, I think, a lot more important that a lot of western observers realise because of the country's recent history.

...Obviously none of this should be construed as a justification for Russian military aggression.
 
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Call me pessimistic, I reckon they're getting underway tonight. The earlier tweet about the NOTAM over the black sea from midnight onwards is ominous as feck.
Could be .. aim to be in Kiev by 23rd and have a party back in Russia as defence of the fatherland day is a national holiday.


My gut feel was something tomorrow as a trigger event (shelling of a hospital, discovery of a mass grave ).... Russia responding the next day with a deman that can't be met... Eg Kiev government steps down and puts Donbas leader in charge with invasion the following night but yeah it seems when not if .... And will they go after Kiev or concentrate on the eastern regions
 
I know it's not gonna happen so don't jump me, but imagine if Ukraine suddenly pulls out nuclear weapons and tells Russia to go feck themselves or we'll wipe Moscow off the map. It'd be quite the moment.

Yes, I have morbid thoughts.
 
I know it's not gonna happen so don't jump me, but imagine if Ukraine suddenly pulls out nuclear weapons and tells Russia to go feck themselves or we'll wipe Moscow off the map. It'd be quite the moment.

Yes, I have morbid thoughts.
And it turns out that they are Russian nukes that corrupt officials have sold for a quick buck
 
If Putin invades Ukraine, Russia will be cut off from swift. Nordstream 2 will also be suspended. The supply of semiconductors and high tech components will be banned. It will be very grim for them, whereas their neighbour countries as well as those from CIS will try to distance themselves from Putin. There is absolutely no benefit of whatsoever in invading Ukraine. In 5 years time after new sanctions, the country will be really poor and too far behind technologically. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan will have no choice but to get closer to the western world/USA as being an ally of Putin could essentially mean the end of their sovereignity. Blocked on the west, having no real allies in the south, having only China and Belarus as partners would be curtains. Belarus are a nobody with horrific reputation on the world stage, while China will only "help" by getting Russia's natural resources at cheaper prices. Their economy will collapse completely.
 
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Did you mean something like this?

npkTgR0.png
:lol:
 
I know it's not gonna happen so don't jump me, but imagine if Ukraine suddenly pulls out nuclear weapons and tells Russia to go feck themselves or we'll wipe Moscow off the map. It'd be quite the moment.

Yes, I have morbid thoughts.
Israel can give them to Ukraine on the proviso that Ukraine says Iran did ...

Then us and Israel can pile into Tehran

If trump and netanyahu were still in power I wouldn't actually rule out some batshit crazy thing like that
 
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In one of the least surprising announcements of the day...

https://www.rt.com/russia/550038-military-drills-ukraine-border/

Russia today has said that the military exersise with Belarus has been extended

Can't help but think all the stars are aligning around 23rd Feb .. which is defence of the fatherland day in Russia



I wouldnt be shocked if things happened sooner or later.... But I'd still say 23rd is most likely

It's reached the point where I would be surprised if Russia didn't invade though.
 
I wouldnt be shocked if things happened sooner or later.... But I'd still say 23rd is most likely

It's reached the point where I would be surprised if Russia didn't invade though.

The bolded would be the aim if they actually intended to invade or not really

I'd agree that invasion seems more likely at the moment. There needs to be something that would allow Putin to withdraw and right or wrong no one wants to give what would be required.

I said weeks ago but Ukraine is just the pawn here and NATO would rather they be invaded than give in to Russia publically. It's a sad state of affairs.

For the low IQ in here, that isn't equivalence.
 
The bolded would be the aim if they actually intended to invade or not really

I'd agree that invasion seems more likely at the moment. There needs to be something that would allow Putin to withdraw and right or wrong no one wants to give what would be required.

I said weeks ago but Ukraine is just the pawn here and NATO would rather they be invaded than give in to Russia publically. It's a sad state of affairs.

For the low IQ in here, that isn't equivalence.
I can't really see how putin can step back without loosing face

And I don't see any big diplomatic effort to give him that option so it almost seems like all sides are resigned to it happening

For me the question is more if (when) he invades what's the scope of the invasion... Kiev and everything east of the river ?

Just reinforcing the eastern provinces... A land corridor to Crimea?

I'm assuming there is going to be some element of ongoing ukranian resistance to whatever happens and NATO will be funding and arming that

All in all its a pretty sad state of affairs as you say
 
The bolded would be the aim if they actually intended to invade or not really

I'd agree that invasion seems more likely at the moment. There needs to be something that would allow Putin to withdraw and right or wrong no one wants to give what would be required.

I said weeks ago but Ukraine is just the pawn here and NATO would rather they be invaded than give in to Russia publically. It's a sad state of affairs.

For the low IQ in here, that isn't equivalence.

No one is forcing Ukraine to have a desire to join NATO. This isn't some puppet leader the West have put in place. If a democratically elected government want to join NATO and are threatened with invasion then damn straight NATO should support them and not back down.
 
No one is forcing Ukraine to have a desire to join NATO. This isn't some puppet leader the West have put in place. If a democratically elected government want to join NATO and are threatened with invasion then damn straight NATO should support them and not back down.
I guess the wildcard move would be to admit Ukraine into NATO immediately

Does not seem to be any appetite for that though.
 
I guess the wildcard move would be to admit Ukraine into NATO immediately

Does not seem to be any appetite for that though.

It would certainly be interesting, although perhaps seen as antagonistic to do it without the typical due dil. It would mean that the rest of NATO would essentially be obliged to declare war on Russia if Ukraine was invaded " The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all "

Which I guess would either scare Putin off or we'd have WW3.
 
It would certainly be interesting, although perhaps seen as antagonistic to do it without the typical due dil. It would mean that the rest of NATO would essentially be obliged to declare war on Russia if Ukraine was invaded " The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all "

Which I guess would either scare Putin off or we'd have WW3.
As I say it would be the wildcard option.
 
Macron really trying to throw his weight here. Though if he achieves diplomatic solutions, fair play.
 
Macron really trying to throw his weight here. Though if he achieves diplomatic solutions, fair play.
Seems to be playing as much to the domestic polls by distancing himself from US/UK foreign policy.

Would be great if he could find a long term diplomatic solution but I'm doubtful it's going anywhere (hope I'm wrong)
 
Seems to be playing as much to the domestic polls by distancing himself from US/UK foreign policy.

Would be great if he could find a long term diplomatic solution but I'm doubtful it's going anywhere (hope I'm wrong)

I highly doubt that. Because in France people don't care for appearances when it comes to diplomacy, you are only judged on results and fairly harshly too. He is also strangely popular for a french president at the end of his tenure, so he doesn't need to work the poll desperately.
 
The only diplomatic solution acceptable for Putin would be if nato countries sign an explicit treaty to deny Ukraine membership.
 
The only diplomatic solution acceptable for Putin would be if nato countries sign an explicit treaty to deny Ukraine membership.
Only if you believe Putin is really amassing an army to stop Ukraine joining NATO... Which it isn't.
 
The only diplomatic solution acceptable for Putin would be if nato countries sign an explicit treaty to deny Ukraine membership.

But that would mean less opportunities to feck Russia up.

Ukraine is just the fall guy, they don't give a feck about them.
 
Let’s be honest, at this stage if he doesn’t invade he’ll forever be known as ‘массивная причуда’….which Google tells me is Russian for ‘a massive fadge’
 
My gut says that Putin owns enough politicians across western democracies to be confident enough that no meaningful sanctions are going to be put on Russia. Tories won’t vote for anything and Republicans plus Sinema and Manchin won’t give the numbers either.
 
My gut says that Putin owns enough politicians across western democracies to be confident enough that no meaningful sanctions are going to be put on Russia. Tories won’t vote for anything and Republicans plus Sinema and Manchin won’t give the numbers either.
Pretty certain the WH can impose some sort of sanctions without Congress.
 
I know putin is no saint but i wouldn't trust a word coming out of the white house, they've conned the world numerous times pretending to be knights in shining armor. Atleast putin doesn't pretend to be fighting for "freedom", "democracy" and "human rights" while the actual reason was greed. They're all in it for their own selfish self interests, the sooner everyone realizes it the better.
 
No one is forcing Ukraine to have a desire to join NATO. This isn't some puppet leader the West have put in place. If a democratically elected government want to join NATO and are threatened with invasion then damn straight NATO should support them and not back down.

This

100%
 
I know putin is no saint but i wouldn't trust a word coming out of the white house, they've conned the world numerous times pretending to be knights in shining armor. Atleast putin doesn't pretend to be fighting for "freedom", "democracy" and "human rights" while the actual reason was greed. They're all in it for their own selfish self interests, the sooner everyone realizes it the better.
How do you feel about the regular Ukraininians about to get invaded?
 
No one is forcing Ukraine to have a desire to join NATO. This isn't some puppet leader the West have put in place. If a democratically elected government want to join NATO and are threatened with invasion then damn straight NATO should support them and not back down.

As i said right or wrong but diplomacy isn't as narrow as you've laid out. I'll ignore the security interest issue because no one wants to admit that should be a consideration.

Ukriane isn't joining NATO any time soon because the required efforts on corruption and stability haven't been made yet. Zelenskyy promised wide ranging reforms that haven't occurred and there's the obvious territorial issues.

France and Germany seem to be pushing for a bit of a stop gap agreement that formalises the above, no immediate acceptance. None of us know whether Putin would see that as enough face saving to stand down but it seems like the right call to me.
 
How do you feel about the regular Ukraininians about to get invaded?
I doubt russia is going to do any invading apart from the fringe border areas. They just do not want nato in there immediate vicinity, however if they occupy ukraine then they'll have a border with nato which is what they dont want.

Why cant all three get on the table and come to an agreement which says that ukraine will not join nato, that russia will not attack ukraine unless in self defense and that if russia invades ukraine then nato will help ukraine militarily ?

That should appease all sides.
 
I doubt russia is going to do any invading apart from the fringe border areas. They just do not want nato in there immediate vicinity.

Why cant all three get on the table and come to an agreement which says that ukraine will not join nato, that russia will not invade ukraine unless in self defense and that if russia invades ukraine then nato will help ukraine militarily ?

That should appease all sides.
Because the Ukrainian people massively want to join NATO, and Zelenski is not Putin and so can't unilaterally determine the fate of his country.
 
Because the Ukrainian people massively want to join NATO, and Zelenski is not Putin and so can't unilaterally determine the fate of his country.
The people should want to join the EU first. Sometimes the people are idiots (eg. brexit) and therefore the leadership should educate them.