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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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If France pledges to veto it would probably work, however it will be a giant feck you toothed other members, so not realistic.
For those who've missed the reference, at 4 am on the 22th (although of June, not of February) was the moment of the initial German attack on USSR.
It's the same guy who had threatened to change the Earth's orbit a bit to drown America under the wave of tsunamis by the way.
Is he trying to emulate Sarkozy here...
Based on pre-Biden sanctions:
A specific example involving Russia's new economic lifeline:
From everything I have read, the US (and the UK for that matter) has much better subs than other countries.
F-22s (and F-35s for that matter) would shoot Russian and Chinese aircrafts before they are seen. While the S35 would be better in a dogfight, they would be killed way before a dogfight can happen.
The US is not behind in cyber. They just don’t use that to spam every forum.
And in drones, there is no competiton.
Do they? What about the infamous strategic ambiguity?
A volley of hypersonic cruise missiles traveling at mach 10 ? Only one or two need to get through and its not easy to take them out.
A few scenarios that could play out.
1. No war - Putin improbably backs down. Highly unlikely without him walking away with some major concessions, which aren't likely to come.
2. A full on invasion involving incursions from Belarus, Russia, and an amphibious landing from the Black Sea, followed by a topping of the Kiev government and emplacement of Russian stooge politicians (backed up Russian troops). Basically taking all of Ukraine with the exception of far western areas near Poland.
3. A light invasion in the south to take Mariupol and create a Russian land bridge between Donbas and Crimea (a previous Putin priority).
4. Novorussia Invasion - A fake invasion from Belarus to draw Ukrainian forces north, followed immediately by a real invasion from Russia and the Black Sea to take all oblasts from Kharkiv to Odessa and everything from Dnipropetrovsk southwards. This may also involve toppling the Kiev government and creating a Donbas style frozen conflict with Russian puppet politicians in the rest of Ukraine to ensure it doesn't join NATO. This would allow Putin to claim a major win among Russian nationalists who have been after Novorossiya since before the Crimea invasion. This would give him near complete control of the non-Turkish area of the Black Sea and would allow him to use Moldova as a buffer state between Russia and Romania
5. The contagion scenario - Russia invades all of Ukraine, but inadvertently creates a spillover effect that causes a neighboring NATO country to get involved (Poland or Romania) or else hits Ukrainian nuclear reactors that spew radiation across the entire region.
All invasion scenarios would eventually result in a violent and drawn out guerilla war.
Given that Putin has already committed by beating his chest with a massive buildup, he isn't incentivized to go small since he knows sanctions will come either way. If an invasion does happen, he will be incentivized to go medium (Novorrossiya) or big (most of Ukraine).
1. No war - Putin improbably backs down. Highly unlikely without him walking away with some major concessions, which aren't likely to come.
2. A full on invasion involving incursions from Belarus, Russia, and an amphibious landing from the Black Sea, followed by a topping of the Kiev government and emplacement of Russian stooge politicians (backed up Russian troops). Basically taking all of Ukraine with the exception of far western areas near Poland.
3. A light invasion in the south to take Mariupol and create a Russian land bridge between Donbas and Crimea (a previous Putin priority).
4. Novorussia Invasion - A fake invasion from Belarus to draw Ukrainian forces north, followed immediately by a real invasion from Russia and the Black Sea to take all oblasts from Kharkiv to Odessa and everything from Dnipropetrovsk southwards. This may also involve toppling the Kiev government and creating a Donbas style frozen conflict with Russian puppet politicians in the rest of Ukraine to ensure it doesn't join NATO. This would allow Putin to claim a major win among Russian nationalists who have been after Novorossiya since before the Crimea invasion. This would give him near complete control of the non-Turkish area of the Black Sea and would allow him to use Moldova as a buffer state between Russia and Romania
5. The contagion scenario - Russia invades all of Ukraine, but inadvertently creates a spillover effect that causes a neighboring NATO country to get involved (Poland or Romania) or else hits Ukrainian nuclear reactors that spew radiation across the entire region.
All invasion scenarios would eventually result in a violent and drawn out guerilla war.
Given that Putin has already committed by beating his chest with a massive buildup, he isn't incentivized to go small since he knows sanctions will come either way. If an invasion does happen, he will be incentivized to go medium (Novorrossiya) or big (most of Ukraine).
You actually believe this? No credible source I've read claims the US is behind in much apart from hypersonic missiles/hypersonic glide vehicles and the only reason the US is behind in these is because they want to use these weapons with conventional warheads, which require greater accuracy to be effective. China and Russia places nuclear warheads on theirs, which allows them to sacrifice accuracy for being able to say that they have these weapons first.
This is actually not quite true as the only effective hypersonic cruise missiles that China and Russia have are likely ones with nuclear warheads, which would trigger WW3 anyways. China claims to have an effective hypersonic conventional anti-ship missile but them and Russia have exaggerated their military capabilities before and analysts think it unlikely that these can effectively engage carriers 1000 miles away.
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/
It says nuclear or conventional.
At the end of the day neither you or me or the analysts know the exact capabilities of these missiles, its best to move ahead without underestimating the adversary.
Indeed, you'd have thought a better sit down would be a delegation from NATO, alongside Ukraine and Russia.
True, although I wouldn't overestimate them either.
Reddit's r/russia sub is an absolute shitshow of hate.
Some of the options for subject flairs when creating a new post are: 'Western Clowns' and 'Retarded Westerners'
It's also not hard to find casual racism and tropes about Jewish people. What makes it worse is that I'd bet a majority of the posters there are paid troll-farmers, alongside a number of edgelord American teenagers who just lap up the propaganda..
Some of the options for subject flairs when creating a new post are: 'Western Clowns' and 'Retarded Westerners'
It's also not hard to find casual racism and tropes about Jewish people. What makes it worse is that I'd bet a majority of the posters there are paid troll-farmers, alongside a number of edgelord American teenagers who just lap up the propaganda..
Some interesting examples in the replies, certainly more than I expected:
I think the US would struggle now, mainly because it's on China's doorstep and within range of their land-based aircraft and missiles etc. One carrier battle group alone would get sunk pretty quick purely because it can't hold enough SM-2's to shoot down everything China could potentially throw at it. That's in the region of $15b+ of ship, aircraft and 7,500+ personnel put to the bottom of the ocean, and it's certainly not infeasible that could just be the first 24 hours.
A war and full blockade against china is enough to melt the world's economy.
I dont know about the rest, but we rely too much on china made products from smartphones to cloths pin. Shudder to think about the effect of a war with china.
We'd probably hit scarcity faster than american can launch their carrier group. Not to mention the unthinkable effect it has on stock market and world economy
The fact each intelligence report is worse than the last is a bit convenient for Russia isn't it. Just enough new intelligence to make each release a bit worse and ramp things up even more.
Ya I agree, it's not an easy task but I would think the US military would be sounding even more alarms if they didn't have a contingency plan they had confidence in. Even in good times they know how to hit the panic button to keep the money flowing. The reality is that the entire economy is dependent on the military being able to assure victory against any adversary. The bigger issue may come later this decade when the Chinese military has built up even more capability, you already hear the generals crapping their pants about it. Then again, if Congress continues to buy the nightmares of the generals like they have for many decades and the money keeps flowing, the innovation will keep coming, thus potentially bringing new solutions to address present and future issues in a conflict. For example with regards to hypersonic missiles, after the panic party the media and military had about the Chinese advancements, the Pentagon decided to throw a shit ton of money at it. I have full confidence that any gap in hypersonic weapons will be closed, if not surpassed, in 2-3 years, and China will go back to hacking US defense companies to close the technology gap even in this arena.
While the US continue to spend around 3 times as much on their military each year as China, any idea that China are going to catch them up or surpass them is pretty laughable.
Didn't know there were still airlines flying to Kyiv.
Who are we to discount US intel, but is anyone buying this?
They should definitely tone it down, unless they can display concrete proof for these specifics.
So the US wasn't wrong on this pretext video business.
This reads almost like a Trump tweet.
Reddit comment
Reddit comment
Putin and Zuckerburg are collaborating to create the metaverse!
Something like that. Or put Russia placing over 100K troops on the Ukrainian border and people yelling about NATO and the US being at fault somewhere in there. Difficult to figure out the exact configuration with everything that is going on.Did you mean something like this?
Why do power-hungry twats always have to ruin it for the rest of us?