Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Droid_Repairs]

Ahh yes, Zhirinovsky. The man who advocates dumping nuclear waste on European neighbours!

 

[Droid_Repairs]

The people should want to join the EU first. Sometimes the people are idiots (eg. brexit) and therefore the leadership should educate them.

Dude. I'm not anti-EU but regarding Ukraine joining the union, do you understand how arrogant it sounds for an outsider of a sovereign country to not only decide what is best for them, but to decide that their own people might be too stupid to realise it?

 

[owlo]

I highly doubt that. Because in France people don't care for appearances when it comes to diplomacy, you are only judged on results and fairly harshly too. He is also strangely popular for a french president at the end of his tenure, so he doesn't need to work the poll desperately.

Macron is pretty much guaranteed victory right? Don’t know much about it but I did see he had almost 55% in one first round poll and just assumed he’d win.

The only diplomatic solution acceptable for Putin would be if nato countries sign an explicit treaty to deny Ukraine membership.

What do you give the worlds richest man..... Finland would probably work. (At this stage, neither party can back down. I feel its been engineered so that no diplomatic solution is possible.)

Ceding Donbas would work, but would be flying the white flag.

My gut says that Putin owns enough politicians across western democracies to be confident enough that no meaningful sanctions are going to be put on Russia. Tories won’t vote for anything and Republicans plus Sinema and Manchin won’t give the numbers either.

What evidence do you have for this fantasy? If Biden orders sanctions, congress will bi-laterally agree them. They slapped them on russia even without Trumps consent. And what do the Tories matter?

 

[sun_tzu]

Ahh yes, Zhirinovsky. The man who advocates dumping nuclear waste on European neighbours!

To be fair he actually wanted to set up big fans to blow airborne radiation over them

He also wanted to arm every citizen and order them to shoot all birds to stop bird flu

But in my opinion his crowning achievement is this drunken rant take on diplomacy

In a 2003 video,[74] a drunken Zhirinovsky threatened George W. Bush in offensive language. He called the United States a "second-hand goods store" filled with "cocksuckers, handjobbers, and faggots", and claimed that Russian scientists are able to change the gravitational field of the Earth and sink the entire country.[75] In the video Bill Clinton, Monica Lewinsky and Condoleezza Rice are also mentioned. Zhirinovsky calls Condoleezza Rice: "a black whore who needs a good cock. Send her here, one of our divisions will make her happy in the barracks one night. She will choke on Russian sperm as it will be leaking out of her ears ... until she crawls to the US embassy in Moscow on her knees."[75]

 

[Simbo]

It would be a huge win for him not to take especially with no added sanctions.

It would, but would it stop him? Especially if all these Ukranian attacks keep going on...

 

[owlo]

Dude. I'm not pro-Brexit, but do you understand how arrogant it sounds for an outsider of a sovereign country to not only decide what is best for them, but to decide that their own people might be too stupid to realise it.

It's true though. In the same way it would be for France or Germany. In both instances you would expect democracy to protect the people from such lunacy. It's why we don't have direct democracy after all.

 

[JPRouve]

Macron is pretty much guaranteed victory right? Don’t know much about it but I did see he had almost 55% in one first round poll and just assumed he’d win.

Things are never guaranteed but if polls are correct, he is a largely ahead and he is also way more popular than any candidate-president since maybe Mitterrand.

 

[Droid_Repairs]

It's true though. In the same way it would be for France or Germany. In both instances you would expect democracy to protect the people from such lunacy. It's why we don't have direct democracy after all.

I'm not convinced it's a given that joining the EU is the best thing for Ukraine. It's far more complicated than a binary 'right' or 'wrong' decision. I think each nation's needs and aspirations are different, and don't forget - there are large sections of the Ukrainian public who still feel culturally closer to Russia than to Western Europe.

 

[owlo]

I'm not convinced it's a given that joining the EU is the best thing for Ukraine. It's far more complicated than a binary 'right' or 'wrong' decision. I think each nation's needs and aspirations are different, and don't forget - there are large sections of the Ukrainian public who still feel culturally closer to Russia than to Western Europe.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about the UK. (And whether being part of the EU is best for the UK)

 

[Revan]

My gut says that Putin owns enough politicians across western democracies to be confident enough that no meaningful sanctions are going to be put on Russia. Tories won’t vote for anything and Republicans plus Sinema and Manchin won’t give the numbers either.

I don’t think that you need senate approval for sanctions, but might be wrong. In any case, many GOP senators would vote for sanctions there.

Thing is that Putin probably won’t care for that. Unless the sanctions would be as severe as those of Iran, N.Korea, Cuba and Venezuela, but there is no indication that is what Biden administration is planning. Those type of sanctions would definitely make Putin think twice especially if large EU countries, and some other big economies like Japan, Canada, Australia, S. Korea go with that.

 

[VorZakone]

To be fair he actually wanted to set up big fans to blow airborne radiation over them

He also wanted to arm every citizen and order them to shoot all birds to stop bird flu

But in my opinion his crowning achievement is this drunken rant take on diplomacy

Seems like a nice fella.

 

[Droid_Repairs]

Sorry, I thought you were talking about the UK. (And whether being part of the EU is best for the UK)

I will edit my post because it's ambiguous, I believe what he was saying was that Ukraine should join the EU, and if the people are too stupid to realise it then their leaders should convince them to.

I'm not necessarily saying EU membership is wrong for Ukraine, but it's not for us to say, let alone assume they're stupid for thinking otherwise.

 

[Revan]

Macron is pretty much guaranteed victory right? Don’t know much about it but I did see he had almost 55% in one first round poll and just assumed he’d win.

I think he is polling at 25% with several candidates including Le Pen at around 10-15%.

 

[T00lsh3d]

To be fair he actually wanted to set up big fans to blow airborne radiation over them

He also wanted to arm every citizen and order them to shoot all birds to stop bird flu

But in my opinion his crowning achievement is this drunken rant take on diplomacy

This is the kind of stuff I come to the CE for

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

I think he is polling at 25% with several candidates including Le Pen at around 10-15%.

That's pretty much in the bag for him by French political standards. There is just no way that people would go for a Le Pen majority in the second round of voting.

 

[Lebowski]

The people should want to join the EU first. Sometimes the people are idiots (eg. brexit) and therefore the leadership should educate them.

It's far more complicated than that.

Both the pro-western and pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians have been discussing EU economic integration for ages.

Prior to 2014, the EU gave Ukraine an ultimatum that they couldn't be a partner with both the EU and Russia.

This put Ukraine in a very difficult situation as it's an unstable democracy home to both fierce pro-western and pro-Russian factions.

Then, the deal that the EU offered Ukraine to join the EEA was, in essence, terrible for Ukraine, which led to their president seeking a closer alliance with Russia instead, which led to a civil uprising and a coup in Ukraine, which led to Minsk 2, etc etc.

It's a post-soviet state with huge political and cultural unrest and divide that has repeatedly been used as a pawn or a bargaining chip by far larger economic and military powers, like the EU, Russia and the US. Sadly almost always to the detriment of its own population and internal stability.

 

[IWat]

As i said right or wrong but diplomacy isn't as narrow as you've laid out. I'll ignore the security interest issue because no one wants to admit that should be a consideration.

Ukriane isn't joining NATO any time soon because the required efforts on corruption and stability haven't been made yet. Zelenskyy promised wide ranging reforms that haven't occurred and there's the obvious territorial issues.

France and Germany seem to be pushing for a bit of a stop gap agreement that formalises the above, no immediate acceptance. None of us know whether Putin would see that as enough face saving to stand down but it seems like the right call to me.

What security interest though? There are already countries on Russia's border that are members, so anything e.g. spy equipment is already there. This is not the 1950's where the Soviet Union wanted the buffer zone to give them a heads up of incoming NATO bombers. Even during the cold war the US wasn't going to seriously consider invading Cuba until nukes got plonked there, which I don't think anyone is suggesting happens with Ukraine. Which just puts into perspective how truly nutty this is, that this wouldn't have been deemed acceptable even back then.

Russia really needs to just accept its place as a 2nd tier military nation supporting China just as the UK has had to with the US.

 

[sun_tzu]

Russia really needs to just accept its place as a 2nd tier military nation supporting China just as the UK has had to with the US.

Do they... I mean by all accounts they are going to roll tanks into Kiev and nato isn't going to do anything

China will I'm sure be watching the reaction closely as will Taiwan

 

[The Firestarter]

Prior to 2014, the EU gave Ukraine an ultimatum that they couldn't have diplomatic and trade relations with both the EU and Russia.

Every country has diplomatic relations with Russia, and the EU trades heavily with them. What are you on about?

 

[Revan]

That's pretty much in the bag for him by French political standards. There is just no way that people would go for a Le Pen majority in the second round of voting.

Dunno, there is another far-right nutter in the club who is polling as high as Le Pen, so in theory, far-right is polling at 30% between Le Pen and Zemmour. Considering that he holds identical views to Le Pen (especially in foreign policies), you could easily see the majority of his voters supporting Le Pen in the second round (or vice versa).

 

[Revan]

Do they... I mean by all accounts they are going to roll tanks into Kiev and nato isn't going to do anything

China will I'm sure be watching the reaction closely as will Taiwan

I think that Taiwan is far more important geo-strategically than Ukraine, so I don't expect anything to happen there. Heck, TSMC is the most important company in the world.

China will likely take Taiwan, but I think it needs to wait for another couple of decades.

 

[IWat]

Do they... I mean by all accounts they are going to roll tanks into Kiev and nato isn't going to do anything

China will I'm sure be watching the reaction closely as will Taiwan

Biden has come out and said the US will defend Taiwan if invaded though. They've threatened sanctions on Russia if Ukraine is invaded and not really pretended that they'll do any more.

NATO isn't going to do anything over Ukraine because it doesn't have to. If he was trying this with Estonia or Latvia (which he won't) it would be very different.

 

[sport2793]

I think that Taiwan is far more important geo-strategically than Ukraine, so I don't expect anything to happen there. Heck, TSMC is the most important company in the world.

China will likely take Taiwan, but I think it needs to wait for another couple of decades.

An analyst I was listening to said recently that China will aim for late 2020s to 2030s to invade Taiwan, basically the moment where Chinese victory can supposedly be guaranteed regardless of US intervention.

 

[sun_tzu]

An analyst I was listening to said recently that China will aim for late 2020s to 2030s to invade Taiwan, basically the moment where Chinese victory can supposedly be guaranteed regardless of US intervention.

Possibly quicker if Russia would be providing additional naval and air support

Watch out for joint China Russia military exercises in a few years

 

[Simbo]

Top Gun 2 still filming apparently.

 

[sport2793]

Possibly quicker if Russia would be providing additional naval and air support

Na the Russians dont come close to matching US capabilites in those arenas. China's plan is about being self-sufficient.

 

[IWat]

I think that Taiwan is far more important geo-strategically than Ukraine, so I don't expect anything to happen there. Heck, TSMC is the most important company in the world.

China will likely take Taiwan, but I think it needs to wait for another couple of decades.

Intel is an amazing lesson in how to completely destroy your own huge competitive advantage for short-sighted shareholder greed. And now they're desperately spending tens of billions on fabs in the US and Europe with tech TSMC has had for years.

 

[Raoul]

I doubt russia is going to do any invading apart from the fringe border areas. They just do not want nato in there immediate vicinity, however if they occupy ukraine then they'll have a border with nato which is what they dont want.

Why cant all three get on the table and come to an agreement which says that ukraine will not join nato, that russia will not attack ukraine unless in self defense and that if russia invades ukraine then nato will help ukraine militarily ?

That should appease all sides.

This would actually only appease Russia's interests, since Putin doesn't want Ukraine in NATO.

NATO and EU membership are written into Ukraine's constitution and its their right, not Putin's, to decide what they want to do. The burden is therefore on Putin to moderate his views on the matter.

 

[sun_tzu]

Na the Russians dont come close to matching US capabilites in those arenas. China's plan is about being self-sufficient.

The key is can you complete the strike before the US can get enough assets into the area... with Russian support (particularly amphibious assault and helicopters) this accelerates....

Plus a fleet of Russian subs along with a few hundred carrier killer missiles would certainly hamper us abilities to get aircraft carriers close enough to operate over the airspace

To be honest though I think the US showing unwilling to commit troops to Ukraine will make China think about stepping up any plans for reunification

 

[Revan]

An analyst I was listening to said recently that China will aim for late 2020s to 2030s to invade Taiwan, basically the moment where Chinese victory can supposedly be guaranteed regardless of US intervention.

I think the US military is far ahead. Aircraft carriers, subs, and aircrafts of the US are far ahead of China (or Russia), and it is very unlikely that might change in the next 10 years.

An invasion of Taiwan would also make very likely for Japan to go nuclear, which can cause all sorts of trouble in the future.

 

[Lebowski]

Every country has diplomatic relations with Russia, and the EU trades heavily with them. What are you on about?

You can't be a member of a customs union with Russia and the EU. This was an explicit condition of the Ukraine-EU agreement.

The EU gave Ukraine a choice - Russia or the EU, not both. Yanukovych chose Russia, there was a civil uprising which resulted in a coup.

 

[Revan]

The key is can you complete the strike before the US can get enough assets into the area... with Russian support (particularly amphibious assault and helicopters) this accelerates....

Plus a fleet of Russian subs along with a few hundred carrier killer missiles would certainly hamper us abilities to get aircraft carriers close enough to operate over the airspace

To be honest though I think the US showing unwilling to commit troops to Ukraine will make China think about stepping up any plans for reunification

I doubt it. Taiwan is far more important than Ukraine to the US, and US has a treaty to defend them.

On the other side, China is already stronger than Russia, and in a decade, it would be far more stronger than Russia, and almost matching the US military.

 

[Revan]

Intel is an amazing lesson in how to completely destroy your own huge competitive advantage for short-sighted shareholder greed. And now they're desperately spending tens of billions on fabs in the US and Europe with tech TSMC has had for years.

Indeed. The new CEO is trying to send the things in the right direction though, so let's see.

 

[The Firestarter]

You can't be a member of a customs union with Russia and the EU. This was an explicit condition of the Ukraine-EU agreement.

The EU gave Ukraine a choice - Russia or the EU, not both. Yanukovych chose Russia, there was a civil uprising which resulted in a coup.

A customs union is a different thing to what you said in your post.

 

[Lebowski]

A customs union is a different thing to what you said in your post.

Correct. I think I said 'close political and economic ties' but I've edited it to be clearer.

The point is that in its recent history Ukraine has been stuck in limbo between closer alignment to Russia and the EU, and neither really gives a shit about Ukrainian development beyond what they themselves can benefit from it.

 

[BlueHaze]

What is going on here 4 hours ago there was reports that Putin and Macron has agreed to diplomatic solution and now everyone is writing russia has gotten the command to invade. Proper shitshow this is. Feck the lot of them.

 

[Raoul]

What is going on here 4 hours ago there was reports that Putin and Macron has agreed to diplomatic solution and now everyone is writing russia has gotten the command to invade. Proper shitshow this is. Feck the lot of them.

Macron doesn't have the unilateral authority to reach an agreement as it would require Ukraine and the other larger NATO member states. He's probably getting used by Putin as the useful idiot of the moment to cosplay a modern Neville Chamberlain.

 

[owlo]

I think the US military is far ahead. Aircraft carriers, subs, and aircrafts of the US are far ahead of China (or Russia), and it is very unlikely that might change in the next 10 years.

An invasion of Taiwan would also make very likely for Japan to go nuclear, which can cause all sorts of trouble in the future.

You think based on what?

Carriers? Yes, but irrelevant. They'd be bargained out of GP conflict for fear of vertical escalation. They are also extremely vulnerable these days.
Subs? Than China yes. Than Russia no. Russia arguably have the lead.
Aircraft? Dunno as much about it, but I assume yes as the F22 is sick.
HGV's? Behind both
HM's? Behind both
Cyber? Behind both
Drones? Ahead, but partly reliant on Israel.

And Japan are already a nuclear power.

 

[Raoul]

You think based on what?

Carriers? Yes, but irrelevant. They'd be bargained out of GP conflict for fear of vertical escalation. They are also extremely vulnerable these days.
Subs? Than China yes. Than Russia no. Russia arguably have the lead.
Aircraft? Dunno as much about it, but I assume yes as the F22 is sick.
HGV's? Behind both
HM's? Behind both
Cyber? Behind both
Drones? Ahead, but partly reliant on Israel.

And Japan are already a nuclear power.

The US is ahead significantly in each of the 6 domains of warfare (air, land, sea, undersea, cyber, and space). It isn't even close in any of these categories.

Also, the F-22 is about to be retired in favor of something far better.

 

[VorZakone]

You think based on what?

Carriers? Yes, but irrelevant. They'd be bargained out of GP conflict for fear of vertical escalation. They are also extremely vulnerable these days.
Subs? Than China yes. Than Russia no. Russia arguably have the lead.
Aircraft? Dunno as much about it, but I assume yes as the F22 is sick.
HGV's? Behind both
HM's? Behind both
Cyber? Behind both
Drones? Ahead, but partly reliant on Israel.

And Japan are already a nuclear power.

What makes you think carriers are extremely vulnerable? That's not the assessment that I've read.