Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I think the end game was for Russia to enact a regime change within a few days. A week tops. Everything just points to that because they didn’t prepare to give out massive casualties.

End game for Putin, now is signing some sort of document that will agree that Ukraine act as a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Crimea is officially recognised as Russian territory. LNR and DNR.. I can see Russia conceding those a token gesture. Those areas having a lot of autonomy and pretty much be vassal states.

If i was Zelensky I’d take this deal and run.

Well, you're clearly not Zelenskyy, so get prepared for more Slavic deaths I say. I get the feeling the Ukrainians would rather be exterminated on their land than surrender easily.
 
Can't such a siege last years potentially? And it is very difficult to encircle a city lieg Kyev. I read Russia would need to deploy 70,000 to 100,000 soldiers for that and it would still be unclear if the Ukrainians still couldn't smuggle food into the city. And the logistics are a key factor here. For that to work they would have to successfully run a convoy of the size of the one that's currently stuck in the mud every three days. This one is now failing to advance for what, two weeks? Or has it been three already? Not to mention that Russia is already running out of trucks apparently and have to deploy civil vehicles.

And that's not even considering the sanctions. It's questionable if Russia even hs the resources to keep it going long enough. Many reports say they are expected that the Russian econommy will collapse around July if the sanctions are kept up. Putin might need enough military forces in Russia shortly if the protests escalate.
No, of course not mate. A siege is a military term where one force is literally encircled and cannot get out. That’s not to say that Kyiv would not be raised to the ground and thousands of innocents dead — it would be absolutely horrific.
 
Given all of the equipment and personnel being shipped out of the Russian occupied areas of Georgia, the Georgians might start getting frisky.
 
So you concede that the invasion has gone terribly wrong and Russia is in a worse position internationally, now, than before the invasion ?
What mate? You sound like I’ve never conceded? This has been an absolute disaster. Objectively it’s the biggest disaster that I can think of.
 
Given all of the equipment and personnel being shipped out of the Russian occupied areas of Georgia, the Georgians might start getting frisky.

If Putin were to fall, literally every piece of former Soviet territory currently under his grip will make a move. Beyond the Ukrainians obviously reclaiming Crimea, I could see Kadyrov declaring statehood. Belarus would obviously flip as well.
 
Its a military organisation set up to counter Russia. All these countries joined specifically to give them a military counter Russia, so it clearly is. Doesn't justify invading a foreign nation but lets not be willfully blind.
I think with the benefit of hindsight our diplomatic approach to Russia in the 90's was less than perfect. Were allowed admit we aren't perfect without it being a justification of Russia or Putins actions.
I reject that argument. What do you think Russia would be doing now to former Soviet countries that hadn't joined? They would either be under threat or destabilised because Putin is an expansionist dictator. Putin is and always has been the problem, not NATO.
 
So you concede that the invasion has gone terribly wrong and Russia is in a worse position internationally, now, than before the invasion ?
I can say that this has been a total fecking disaster for Putin but he will have also achieved everything. He will have shown that Russia will happily destroy it self to the point where I’m not sure western countries will go to. I mean Putin will come away claiming victory and those families whom lost Russian soldiers, they’ll believe they liberated Ukraine. It’s just sad that nothing will change really.
 
I can say that this has been a total fecking disaster for Putin but he will have also achieved everything. He will have shown that Russia will happily destroy it self to the point where I’m not sure western countries will go to. I mean Putin will come away claiming victory and those families whom lost Russian soldiers, they’ll believe they liberated Ukraine. It’s just sad that nothing will change really.


:lol: Do you honestly think this was a goal of his prior to the invasion ?
 
I can say that this has been a total fecking disaster for Putin but he will have also achieved everything. He will have shown that Russia will happily destroy it self to the point where I’m not sure western countries will go to. I mean Putin will come away claiming victory and those families whom lost Russian soldiers, they’ll believe they liberated Ukraine. It’s just sad that nothing will change really.
This is still early. Russians haven't felt the affects of the sanctions yet. 10s of thousands of families won't have their sons or fathers coming home. And the display shown probably makes the likes of Sweden think they'd have a chance vs Russian 1 on 1. This has been embarrassing for Russia more than anything, in my opinion.
 
Well, you're clearly not Zelenskyy, so get prepared for more Slavic deaths I say. I get the feeling the Ukrainians would rather be exterminated on their land than surrender easily.
Where did you get that feeling? There is a lot of people whom don’t give a feck who’s in charge - they just want the fighting to stop.
 
Assuming Putin is successful with his war of attrition in 6 months time, there will be nothing left to govern.

There will be no shops, no schools, no media, no offices, nothing.

A puppet government that is governing over a pile of rubble. Fantastic.
 
Russia says it has launched hypersonic missiles
The Russian defence ministry claims to have destroyed an underground warehouse in western Ukraine using hypersonic missiles.
It says the depot in the Ivano-Frankivsk region had contained missiles and aircraft ammunition, though this has not been independently verified by Sky News.
Hypersonic missiles are able to travel five times faster than the speed of sound, at speeds of Mach 5 (3,800 mph) and higher.
This is the first time Russia has admitted to using weapons of this type.
The BBC reports that the "Kinzhal" missile system was deployed in the strike. It is understood this is capable of hitting targets at a range of 1,242 miles.
Meanwhile, Russia says it also destroyed Ukrainian military radio and reconnaissance centres near the port city of Odesa using a coastal missile system.
You have to ask, why are they using this kind of missile for this kind of target? You can't imagine they would have that many. Seems unnecessary from a military POV. If they are using hypersonic missiles on morale boosting, that seems a bit desperate.
 
Where did you get that feeling? There is a lot of people whom don’t give a feck who’s in charge - they just want the fighting to stop.

The fact they haven't already surrendered? The fact that no major city has been captured after nearly a month?
 
:lol: Do you honestly think this was a goal of his prior to the invasion ?
Of course not. This has absolutely went tits up. I’m not sure why the feck I’m in a position where I’m trying to give justification to Putin.

Let me make this clear; like about 90% of Russians - I supported Putin a long long time ago but the fact that he has changed the constitution and whacked a lot of opposition; that kind of turned me off him.

You know a lot of Russians be against this invasion and also see that Ukraine is a failed state- yes probably because of Russia - nevertheless, it’s a problem that countess, nameless poor souls are getting dead over.
 
I mean, they can’t even get functioning tanks onto the battlefield with fuel and ammo in them….are they really about to unload futuristic full-body power suit stuff
It's all for show. All russia seems able to do is boast about a prowess that just isn't there.
 
can we say clearly that Ukraine is winning this war?
No way are they 'winning'. They're doing about as good as you can expect from a supposed 'powerhouse' invading you. Many of the eastern cities are in ruin, millions displaced, many dead and still at the mercy of Russian bombing. But they've done as well as one could have hoped. Western intel and weapons have definitely helped. If this was 1v1 I think it would have been over by now (it helps when you know exactly when and where the enemy will be and what weapons to counter them with)
 
This is still early. Russians haven't felt the affects of the sanctions yet. 10s of thousands of families won't have their sons or fathers coming home. And the display shown probably makes the likes of Sweden think they'd have a chance vs Russian 1 on 1. This has been embarrassing for Russia more than anything, in my opinion.
A lot has been obfuscated from the public but I expect the proud VDV regiments to expect answers. There should not be total wipe outs of battalions. It’s absolutely inconceivable.
 
The fact they haven't already surrendered? The fact that no major city has been captured after nearly a month?
There are a lot of guys whom are battle hardened there. Same as Kharkiv. Actually it’s logical since those places are closest to flashpoints in LNR and DNR. Like civvies in Mouripol aren’t fighting the Russians.
 
You have to ask, why are they using this kind of missile for this kind of target? You can't imagine they would have that many. Seems unnecessary from a military POV. If they are using hypersonic missiles on morale boosting, that seems a bit desperate.

Spot on. It is not as if Ukraine is thousands of miles away. I guess that they have used it/them to stop them being shot down by more conventional missiles.
 
Well, you're clearly not Zelenskyy, so get prepared for more Slavic deaths I say. I get the feeling the Ukrainians would rather be exterminated on their land than surrender easily.
Yeah of course. There will be a bloodbath but I think Zelensky is more open to dialogue. He was initially saying that he wanted build positive relations with Russia. He was on Russian tv and I actually think he’s well liked in Russia, relatively speaking.
 
If Putin were to fall, literally every piece of former Soviet territory currently under his grip will make a move. Beyond the Ukrainians obviously reclaiming Crimea, I could see Kadyrov declaring statehood. Belarus would obviously flip as well.
That is just wishful thinking. like Tatarstan and Bashkirs would never even contemplate it. I’d just have to worry about Chechnya.. literally only place I’d have to worry about.
Kadyrov has an army that could probably take on any country in Europe — certainly they would absolutely put up the same fight as Ukraine now, and that’s without western help. This would only be one state that Putin needs to worry about,
Others are just, well, Russian.
 
There are a lot of guys whom are battle hardened there. Same as Kharkiv. Actually it’s logical since those places are closest to flashpoints in LNR and DNR. Like civvies in Mouripol aren’t fighting the Russians.

There's a lot of guys who seem to battle hardened in every city. Even Mykolaiv is resisting now. I expect the best to in Kyiv, and that's why I think it will be a long and drawn out battle.

Yeah of course. There will be a bloodbath but I think Zelensky is more open to dialogue. He was initially saying that he wanted build positive relations with Russia. He was on Russian tv and I actually think he’s well liked in Russia, relatively speaking.

Dialogue is always good, but actually signing anything official is a different matter. I can't imagine he's full of love and positivity for the Russians right now, especially those who are trying to assassinate him.
 
Assuming Putin is successful with his war of attrition in 6 months time, there will be nothing left to govern.

There will be no shops, no schools, no media, no offices, nothing.

A puppet government that is governing over a pile of rubble. Fantastic.
I’m sorry.. mate but didn’t you get the memo?
People would rather be the kings of ash than live as equals.
 
That is just wishful thinking. like Tatarstan and Bashkirs would never even contemplate it. I’d just have to worry about Chechnya.. literally only place I’d have to worry about.
Kadyrov has an army that could probably take on any country in Europe — certainly they would absolutely put up the same fight as Ukraine now, and that’s without western help. This would only be one state that Putin needs to worry about,
Others are just, well, Russian.
Chechen army could take on any country in Europe? Are you serious? How many planes or tanks do they have? How about electronic warfare? Missiles?
 
I’m sorry.. mate but didn’t you get the memo?
People would rather be the kings of ash than live as equals.

In that case he could have saved a lot of Russian lives and just floored Ukraine on Day 1.
 
There's a lot of guys who seem to battle hardened in every city. Even Mykolaiv is resisting now. I expect the best to in Kyiv, and that's why I think it will be a long and drawn out battle.



Dialogue is always good, but actually signing anything official is a different matter. I can't imagine he's full of love and positivity for the Russians right now, especially those who are trying to assassinate him.
I’m just saying that there are a lot of guys whom have been on rotation between now and 2014 — that’s very battle hardened, especially if they taking operations in Debaltsevo etc — some very, very crazy tales from there.

People whom advise Putin, FSB, guys whom get the sense on the ground — they have absolutely miscalculated. I mean, calling it a miscalculation is inappropriate — it’s a total unmitigated failure. Ukrainians do not want Russians ‘liberating’ them. And a lot of people don’ seem to really care about having Russian language restricted. Ukraines - AZOV and Right Sector Battalions - they are obviously are dogs, that Ukrainian government feels appropriate to set on people. To deny that they don’t exist would be absolutely mental. It’s just that Russia has taken advantage of this issue.
 
Chechen army could take on any country in Europe? Are you serious? How many planes or tanks do they have? How about electronic warfare? Missiles?
They’re probably the best trained guys in Russia.
They have a dedicated special forces school. A lot of guys whom are under Kadyrov are absolute living legends in terms of SOF - like Daniil Martynov et al.

NATO couldn’t deal with Chechnya for instance. Russians couldn’t deal with them. So yeah Chechen could attack any country, if they’re pretty much impregnable.
 
In that case he could have saved a lot of Russian lives and just floored Ukraine on Day 1.
Cause Putin just thought that Ukrainian people would defect as a lot did in 2014. It was a massive miscalculation.
 
I’m just saying that there are a lot of guys whom have been on rotation between now and 2014 — that’s very battle hardened, especially if they taking operations in Debaltsevo etc — some very, very crazy tales from there.

People whom advise Putin, FSB, guys whom get the sense on the ground — they have absolutely miscalculated. I mean, calling it a miscalculation is inappropriate — it’s a total unmitigated failure. Ukrainians do not want Russians ‘liberating’ them. And a lot of people don’ seem to really care about having Russian language restricted. Ukraines - AZOV and Right Sector Battalions - they are obviously are dogs, that Ukrainian government feels appropriate to set on people. To deny that they don’t exist would be absolutely mental. It’s just that Russia has taken advantage of this issue.

I've no doubt the Azov are a big reason why Mariupol is, unbelievably, still standing, but they can't be in every city from Sumy to Mykolaiv right? I think the Territorial Defenses are doing an impressive job.

That said, Yes I agree Putin has massively miscalculated and he can still very much 'win' the military battle. But for what exactly? Lots of Slavics are dead, Ukraine will be rubble, Russia will be too broke to do anything with the 'newly liberated' Ukraine.

Just none of it makes sense apart from one man with a taste for blood.
 
They’re probably the best trained guys in Russia.
They have a dedicated special forces school. A lot of guys whom are under Kadyrov are absolute living legends in terms of SOF - like Daniil Martynov et al.

NATO couldn’t deal with Chechnya for instance. Russians couldn’t deal with them. So yeah Chechen could attack any country, if they’re pretty much impregnable.
All countries have dedicated forces schools, specnaz. Moreover,I have not seen much from Kadyrov's boys in Ukraine. Russia dealt with Chechnya fairly easy, just levelled their cities. Modern wars are not about soldiers vs soldiers. They are about hi-tech weapons vs hi-tech weapons, and I doubt Putin has given much planes or tanks or rockets or any electronic warfare stuff to Chechnya.