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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Oh good, cocaine fueled MRGA patties.
What's Trumps angle here? Just to make Biden look weaker? Because he still won't say anything directly about Putin or Russia, I wonder if his handlers are making him push this agenda (putting Chinese symbols on a US jet and bombing Russia so they go to war). There's a reason he's saying this, he doesn't get ideas in his head himself
Trump is a moron, thank feck he's not the POTUS or we'd all be screwed already
Ultimately, Putin will have to widen the war to generate domestic support.
Trump's transactional. With outflow of russian money being stopped, he has no purpose for them for now. So he puts on his political hat.
So Russia has suddenly gone back to the tactics of the very first hours of the invasion and sent long-range missiles into Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipro, seemingly at airfields again. That seems a little desperate at this stage.
Very interesting, thanks for that!
I don’t doubt that’s the top reason in American politicians’ minds but it’s not just that, to be honest.
The Patriot is a very good missile system but it’s also a large and expensive one and on its own it stands out, so it could be targeted (by a competent airforce, anyway) and taken out. It’s supposed to be just one layer of a holistic air defence solution, complemented by an array short and medium range missile batteries, a wide radar network and an airforce to protect it.
I have doubts that Ukraine has the current capacity to host such system (training aside) without putting a huge target on its back. I reckon MANPADS are Ukraine’s best defence at the moment, as they are cheaper, ubiquitous and a nightmare for Russians to weed out.
What he is doing right now. Step the sanctions up further, if anything. He's sending weapons that can actually be used. All these Republican and fringe politicians have figured out its a good beating stick to suggest hair brained ideas like sending totally unsuitable equipment to Ukraine.
Because he realises that even his voter base is against Russia here and he was known as Putins lapdog only a few months ago?
he is absolutely right. A pity that another leader without his history has not said it before
People supposedly selling Big Mac meals for £250.
Anybody think a Russian civil war is a possibility?
Personally I think it is important that Ukraine is seen to win this war on its own with as little involvement from the US as possible. US is the big bad enemy that Putin uses/needs to strenghten his position, direct US involvement would only increase his support and lengthen his campaign. Whereas losing a war to Ukraine utterly cripples him domestically and makes his position untenable.
Its crazy to think we are even talking about Ukraine winning this war, two weeks ago nobody really thought that possible, but here we are.
Don't think I disagree with any of US/Biden's actions so far. Jets is a tricky subject but I do see their point. I think the whole Poland giving migs to US for them to decide not to use them was a planned/staged public show of the US demonstrating they are not getting involved, this is Ukraines war (while hopefully transporting as much weaponry/ammo accross the Polish border as they can handle, plus intelligence and advice).
Putin has just approved sending 16 thousands "volunteers" from Middle East to go to war with Ukraine
Guess some in Russia would say this kind of is.
I hope you see the hypocrisy of that.
In the short term no
You may get an uprising against Putin (or more likley a deal constructed for him to live out his life as a multi billionaire in that fortress / palace hes built)
What would come after that could be interesting - Russia is a huge and diverse area thats always been difficult to manage... its not totally impossible that you could see a real push from some areas for more autionomy (areas rich in natural resource for example - or st Petersburg which has a distinctly European vibe to it)... this of course has the potential to spill out into conflict
The huge concern there would be though the many missile silos and mobile launchers as well as nuclear reactors spread all over the country... you could in theory quickly end up with several independent (virtualy bankrupt) regimes that have little history of international relations and diplomacy
In many ways I can envisage scenarios where packing putin off to the black sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin's_Palace and having somebody else assume a central leadership function guaranteeing his safety and of those close to him may ultimately be seen as a least worst option vs an uncontrolled revolution into the unknown.
It feels rather unpalatable that the end game could be putin living like a king in his billion dollar palace but ultimately its perhaps better than uncontrolled nuclear proliferation to unknown actors in financial predicaments
For me, it's not about the removal of just Putin but the whole KGB style of rule in Russia.
Open source intelligence:
Yes, but more along the lines of minorities like Chechenya, Dagestan and Tatarstan seeking independence. But, that would happen only if Russia is completely spent in Ukraine, which would probably take a long time.
I mean if I'm USA, I'm right now probably stoking rebellion and independence movements in those regions.
Considering how the war in Ukraine is going, I don't see Russia handling multiple fronts for a long time.
I assume, however that a "deal" will be reached in a few months. So, yes there is a possibility, but only if Putin completely and utterly commits to Ukraine, which is doubtful.
I really dont understand why everyone keeps thinking this. Putin will never ever just accept defeat. He will flatten Ukraine with bombs, starve them, and maybe use chemical weapons before he accepts defeat. Even if he cant take Kiev as I have said from the beginning he will just annex Ukraine. Once he had inflicted enough damage he will just pull back and keep the east and the south. Probably will take some form of agreement with Nato and whats left of the Ukraine leadership that involves him keeping them and some sanctions lifted. Then he will claim victory and spin a story how all the natzis are defeated and they are protecting Russian citizens in Crimea and Kharkiv etc.
I really hope Im wrong but I just cant see Russia pulling out with their tails between their legs and going home in humiliation.
Wise investment. All that stuff will be good for at least a couple of years.
I highly recommend a listen to this. One of the best parts is the discussion about the miscalculation by Putin will have consequences for all potential future conflicts and tensions. Ukraine putting up such a resistance has opened up the possibility of smaller but technologically adapted states to potentially feel confident pushing back on aggressors and push diplomatic boundaries against superpowers/regional powers.
He'll risk a civil war doing so. And he'll alienate China probably.
So much death and destruction all for nothing. Just waiting for the inevitable, when Putin finally kills everyone including the Ukrainian President. All they'll have is rubble and uprisings.
I am not that pessimistic. First and foremost, Ukraine already received tons of arms from the West. Secondly, Russia has not really felt the impact of sanctions thus far. Much worse is yet to come. Finally, China does not look as supportive of Putin as most of us expected to. It is going to be a long game.
He wont care. The ex Oligarch that Putin locked up for 10 years said think of Putin like a mob boss or the main gang leader in a prison. They have a different mindset and the basis is to never show weakness or you will be taken out. As far as Putin sees it backing down is not an option.
He can set the narrative anyway. Retreat and communicate to the public "see? We've demilitarized them and now we're backing off. We were always telling the truth all along, it was never about an occupation".
Can't we at least airlift some food, medicine and water to Mariupol in a Red Cross helicopter? Happy to let the Russians check the cargo first before flying in.
The people there need help and they can't evacuate because the Russians keep on shelling the evac routes.
The people there need help and they can't evacuate because the Russians keep on shelling the evac routes.
That's all well and good. But I just can't see anything stopping Putin. Protest won't do anything. Just a bunch of noise outside. Unless they January 6th it. Only way it stops as if someone puts a bullet in him.
Could well be a case, however, do not forget that Russian citizens have never faced sanctions like these. Lots of intelligent people are trying to leave the country, while oligarchs are losing their wealth too. China dooes not seem to be very supportive either. Am not sure there are many people supporting what Putin has done. Each and every day is hurting him so much more. Support of the West is huge and does not seem to be stopping anytime soon.
Hopefully, when Putin's inner circle realise that they'll be going down with him, they'll whack the cnut.