Out of all your bad takes, this one is the worst.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
The clue is in the words Russian Oligarks.
Putin's stranglehold on power has a lot more to do with the quid-pro-quo relationship he has with the oligarchs than it does to do with popular support. The likes of Abramovich are part of the reason Putin is unassailable domestically. At the same time, the extent of the oligarchs' investment in European economies (think Chelsea, and the London property market) has, until now, meant the West has been unwilling to act more decisively in response to previous acts of Russian aggression for fear of the impact on their economies.
Sanctioning them in response to this (if the sanctions come hard and fast enough) is likely to weaken Putin's position, whether by simply disrupting the flow of oligarchic money/resources which he needs to keep his regime functioning, or by convincing the oligarchs that backing a warmonger isn't in their best interests. The former would make Putin's domestic position significantly less stable, the latter could end him.
Hopefully they can not sleep.
And hopefully they are freezing cold and without food or water and are frightened.
Looks like tanks bunching up when under fire which is the worst thing to do. If its standard Ukrainian artillery as suggested it wont be all that effective against tanks but if they had anti tank missiles or tank specific shells they could wipe the whole lot out.
Still there apparently, slowly trudging forward and slowly getting picked off by Ukrainian attacks.
Is it? I keep reading about empty fuel tanks and dying batteries with no way to refill or charge due to the lenght of the convoy
I was listening to a discussion on the BBC radio this morning.
It was about the fact that Putin produced a PhD thesis some years ago based on the principle that Russia could do pretty much anything in terms of military action and the West, in particular Europe could not afford to react because of 2 critical weapons in the Russian armoury.
Nuclear weapons.
And Oil and Gas supplies.
And of course he was proven correct when he took over Crimea.
Crimea was a testing ground for further invasions west.
So the West failure to react over Crimea convinced him to invade Ukraine almost with impunity.
But at last the West is reacting in a way that Putin did not expect, especially regarding the decision to break the dependancy on Russian oil and gas.
US intelligence said a few days ago it was slowly moving again but Ukrainians have apparently been targeting it since.
What take? I clearly said I don't understand something. Good thing most people are more constructive than you.
Anyone thinking Roman is a normal civilian is just beyond belief at this point. You stated that without doubt and didn't even bother checking if he was one.
I mean do you really think he made those billions by being kind to strangers? I just cannot take that seriously.
From the Chelsea thread:
Well Roman is now a majority shareholder in Evraz, the steel company who’s supplying it to the military for the tanks and vehicles, he transferred his shares directly to himself from an offshore company 8 days before the Ukraine invasion. For the government that’s absolutely black and white in terms of being directly involved with the Ukraine war.
It's still worth discussing Abramovich's current role in Russia. He became powerful during Yeltsin's rule, but it looks a lot like he has been pushed to the sideline under Putin.
He was dodgy before Putin decided to invade. But everybody turned a blind eye to it
Check the post above yours.
Cheers. I have read up on it since and that's basically the crux of it. Its done to put more pressure and destabilise putin's regime. Some of whom actually bankrolled him. Freezing their assets is fair enough.
Invade Taiwan and foreign interference there will be, regardless of whether you find it "unacceptable". With 100 miles of sea to cross, half your ships will be sunk before they make it.
Looks like Putin will consider selling Russia to the China.
China Considers Buying Stakes in Russian Energy, Commodity Firms
according to Bloomberg
China Considers Buying Stakes in Russian Energy, Commodity Firms
according to Bloomberg
China already owns Portugal's main energy supplier and energy network, sold to them by a liberal right wing government,
Seems inevitable at this point. It's their only play other than deposing Putin and ending the invasion.
Who will sink those ships?
A really good article that summarises why the information war and online spectating of this conflict is different, even if the groundwork was laid in Syria and other recent conflicts:
I wonder if Putin knows what's happening here and he just cant avoid it, or he's oblivious? China will be pulling the strings in Russia before he knows what's hit him.
Taiwanese anti-ship missiles fired from land and air, American aircraft, surface navy, subs, Australian subs and whoever else from the "West" happens to have assets in the region.
Successfully invading and conquering Taiwan would be an incredibly difficult proposition for China.
Shit like this needs to be amplified. They are all in on the blood money.
These Russians better start learning Chinese. It's a whole new world for them.
But she did nothing wrong....
Great work from the Navalny crew in putting all of this together. His YouTube channel is a treasure trove of stuff like this and it’s time for all of his content to be more widely publicized.
Overseas power projection is an incredibly difficult thing to do even without an invasion. China is still a long way off that capability especially when foreign powers are involved.
Plus this new big budget military China is creating is untested in combat and has limited training opportunities. They almost need a war to teach them what they don't know.
You think that the "West" will be involved in direct combat if the war was to break out?
That's why this whole invasion thing is a red herring. Unless Xi is as deluded as Putin, he will be humiliated by the massive losses that will be inflicted. Besides, why invade Taiwan -- that means Xi has to destroy half the island to control it. Then what's the point?
Because the Russians keep bombing them… oh wait! You’re talking about the oligarchs. Silly me.
I was thinking about this. If the west wants to really hurt Putin, they should watch Navalny's videos and sanctions everyone who appears in them.
Actually that fits with my thinking. Here is a (bit long) thread about Russian economy and it's power structures: https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1501370616158556161#m
tl;dr: Oil and gas were taken over by Putin's mafia friends, old style oligarchs a tier below are only accepted in a bit more complex industries. Abramovich being forced to sell his oil business for cheap and now active in metallurgy fits this perfectly.
So of course he is an oligarch, but I still think it's wrong to see him on the same level like Deripaska. He isn't part of Putin's inner circle.
Only 12 days into the war and they are in need of selling some of their assets already?
I bet when presented with options by his peeps; the best, most pessimistic and most realistic scenarios of the impact of the war, Putin's advisors' projections never came close to what they are facing now.
Putin will turn Russia into a vassal state.