Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It fascinates me that some "experts" were calling for this 7 years ago and everyone was ignoring it. I remember when I heard a Serbian journalist (deceased now) saying that this will escalate to full blown war in Europe and I was thinking he is being sensationalist.

This is important stand for the west as if Russia gets what they want, this is sorta the end of west as the leader of the World.
 
Sarni said:
That will also be a factor but ultimately if you don’t really have any significant profit to protect, the decision is very easy. The company I work for (US based) have not made a decision to pull out of Russia and at current FX there is no way we can have positive margins there which makes it even weirder.
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Coca-Cola and McDonald's have worldwide reputations to worry about. Yes, your Russian operations probably start turning a loss even if you stay there but that's something they can absorb. When you have a massive global presence the threat of losing sales in other markets because you stayed in a controversial one carries more potential impact to your bottom line than that one market making a loss.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
Coca-Cola and McDonald's have worldwide reputations to worry about. Yes, your Russian operations probably start turning a loss even if you stay there but that's something they can absorb. When you have a massive global presence the threat of losing sales in other markets because you stayed in a controversial one carries more potential impact to your bottom line than that one market making a loss.
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I get what you mean but if you are a company with Russian based plant and high margins, and on top of that sizeable portion of your profit is in Russia, you may have a tough decision to make. When your operations in Russia are mostly reliant on importing goods manufactured elsewhere and/or your revenue there is relatively small, it is a very easy decision to make. Reputation plays a big part of course, but the relative risk v reward is going to be crucial. You don’t want to stay in the market that doesn’t give you profit when it’s also bad for your reputation, but you may need to think twice about staying in a market that is not great for your reputation but offers large profit.

McDonald’s seems to have had almost 10% revenue in Russia and Ukraine, and I would imagine most of their products are locally sourced. For them to leave the market has to be mostly about reputation.
 
Raoul said:
Add to this the fact that Russian soldiers are conscripts with little interest in fighting in the first place, who are then probably underpaid and mistreated in a variety of ways, and its not particularly hard to see why they may underperform, abandon their vehicles, surrender etc.
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They are probably too busy looting now considering the news. Bring the goods back and sell it back in Mother Russia knowing that they may not be available in a few months' time.
 
Mickeza said:
This is the second time it’s been announced, first time by the EU and the second time it’s been rolled back. Farce.
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I believe there are hotlines between the Pentagon and the Kremlin right now, cold-war style crisis lines intended to prevent escalation or accidental all out war.

You just wonder what Russia said to America to make them cancel the aircraft handover for a second time.

Something like: "You let NATO give planes to Ukraine, and it's on"
 
Sarni said:
I get what you mean but if you are a company with Russian based plant and high margins, and on top of that sizeable portion of your profit is in Russia, you may have a tough decision to make. When your operations in Russia are mostly reliant on importing goods manufactured elsewhere and/or your revenue there is relatively small, it is a very easy decision to make. Reputation plays a big part of course, but the relative risk v reward is going to be crucial. You don’t want to stay in the market that doesn’t give you profit when it’s also bad for your reputation, but you may need to think twice about staying in a market that is not great for your reputation but offers large profit.

McDonald’s seems to have had almost 10% revenue in Russia and Ukraine, and I would imagine most of their products are locally sourced. For them to leave the market has to be mostly about reputation.
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Reputation is not just an issue elsewhere, in Russia McD would probably suffer a lot as well, considering they are a symbol for US culture and the propaganda machine is working overtime at the moment.
And how possible is it anyway to do business in Russia on an international scale with all the sanctions?
 
Isn't the problem more one of getting the planes into Ukraine without potentially confronting Russian's from a NATO departure?

Maybe they can land on a road and taxi them over!
 
This is an informative video (for instance, I didn't know that the Russian army relies heavily on railways for logistics support, and that the Ukrainians, knowing this, destroyed the tracks leading into Ukraine from Belorussia and W. Russia):

 
Maticmaker said:
Of course, but I was saying how he (Putin) does present it to the Russian people. Lets be honest if the Russian people wanted freedom and democracy they would have chosen it, like Ukraine has. Although there are probably lots of people in Russia who would welcome democracy, there must still be a significant number of the Russian population that does not want democracy, otherwise Putin would not be in power, they have been told to fear the West (in some cases with a certain amount of justification) and Putin plays to that fear.
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big contradiction here

you think they don't want democracy because they haven't voted for someone else (which would need to be done democratically)

obviously they don't have democracy so that isn't possible, the elections are not even close to democratic and Putin has complete control over the media

Russians want Putin wants them to want, and this war is the perfect example as they're brain-washed into thinking Ukraine are under oppressive Nazi control

and let's say you're Russian and see through all that media bias, okay great then you can vote for Navalny.. oh wait!
 
::sonny:: said:
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I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel for The Russians who have done nothing wrong and don't want anything to do with this. They're rapidly losing even basic escapism tools.

I know it's not a patch on what the Ukrainians are going through but less tough is still tough.
 
Dancfc said:
I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel for The Russians who have done nothing wrong and don't want anything to do with this. They're rapidly losing even basic escapism tools.

I know it's not a patch on what the Ukrainians are going through but less tough is still tough.
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Maybe it will lead to more of them trying to figure out why all of this is happening. Russia shutting off any outside media or criticism should set off major warning lights, but I assume most Russians are accustomed to it?
 
Sir Matt said:
Maybe it will lead to more of them trying to figure out why all of this is happening. Russia shutting off any outside media or criticism should set off major warning lights, but I assume most Russians are accustomed to it?
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Bar the completely and utterly far gone in terms of brainwashing they probably do, however the problem is any attempts by Joe Public to do their bit has them in the slammer for an indefinite period. If a elderly survivor of the siege of Leningrad is fair game to that treatment anyone is.
 
Sir Matt said:
Maybe it will lead to more of them trying to figure out why all of this is happening. Russia shutting off any outside media or criticism should set off major warning lights, but I assume most Russians are accustomed to it?
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For as long as western propaganda exists, it won't make a difference. Even if western propaganda is 5% to Russia's 95% you can always look at the 5% to question the remaining 95% and Russia's propaganda will sound even more convincing.
 
Zelenskyy has apparently asked Bennett to act as an intermediary between him and Putin




Not sure if I believe this bit....

 
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Raoul said:
Zelenskyy has apparently asked Bennett to act as an intermediary between him and Putin




Not sure if I believe this bit....

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The brainwashed segment of Russian society must be confused. What's an Israeli Jewish leader dealing with a Nazi Jewish Ukrainian? Putin the Great is a genius.
 
Raoul said:
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Why the half measure? It will make Putin equally mad as having a no fly zone for the whole Ukraine. It will also disappoint Ukrainians because USA will be signaling that they should abandon half of their country. It doesn't make sense.
 
Sarni said:
I get what you mean but if you are a company with Russian based plant and high margins, and on top of that sizeable portion of your profit is in Russia, you may have a tough decision to make. When your operations in Russia are mostly reliant on importing goods manufactured elsewhere and/or your revenue there is relatively small, it is a very easy decision to make. Reputation plays a big part of course, but the relative risk v reward is going to be crucial. You don’t want to stay in the market that doesn’t give you profit when it’s also bad for your reputation, but you may need to think twice about staying in a market that is not great for your reputation but offers large profit.

McDonald’s seems to have had almost 10% revenue in Russia and Ukraine, and I would imagine most of their products are locally sourced. For them to leave the market has to be mostly about reputation.
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Yes and no. The never end of pursuit of profit is what got us here in the first place though.
 
frostbite said:
Why the half measure? It will make Putin equally mad as having a no fly zone for the whole Ukraine. It will also disappoint Ukrainians because USA will be signaling that they should abandon half of their country. It doesn't make sense.
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Presumably because whatever the outcome of the conflict, you're ending up with a divided Ukraine one way or another. There needs to be victory claims from both sides and gained territory by Russia/secured and guarded Western Ukraine could be that.

Raoul said:
Zelenskyy has apparently asked Bennett to act as an intermediary between him and Putin




Not sure if I believe this bit....

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Israel are probably one of the only democratic state with good relations with both Ukraine and Russia outside of mainland Europe. They are also in need of open communication with Russia due to Syria/Russia controlling the airspace there, but will naturally support it's closer ally in Ukraine due to ideological and diplomatic reasons.
 
Sir Matt said:


:lol:
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Given Biden has tried to get a relationship going with Venezuela again, maybe he'd consider discussing more than just nuclear stuff with Iran if these "allies" won't help? If Iran can see Russia losing its influence in the Middle East and the possibility of selling oil to the west and some/all of their sanctions being lifted then it would have to be very tempting to consider. Probably never happen due to the Israelis and the elites in the US likely being heavily invested in UAE but strategically a power shift like this might be exactly what the Middle East needs.
 
TwoSheds said:
Given Biden has tried to get a relationship going with Venezuela again, maybe he'd consider discussing more than just nuclear stuff with Iran if these "allies" won't help? If Iran can see Russia losing its influence in the Middle East and the possibility of selling oil to the west and some/all of their sanctions being lifted then it would have to be very tempting to consider. Probably never happen due to the Israelis and the elites in the US likely being heavily invested in UAE but strategically a power shift like this might be exactly what the Middle East needs.
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The country that controlled the voting machines? Qanon, Trump will have a field day on this.
 
Raoul said:
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There’s going to be continual escalation between Putin and the West until he goes. I think history shows that it would be naïve to think it finishes here. It’s just a question of whether it is days, weeks, months or years.
 
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It's like the unfolding of a narrative cooked up during those 40 meetings between Xi and Putin in recent years.

China has accused Nato of pushing tensions between Russia and Ukraine to “breaking point”.

At a daily news briefing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian urged the US to take China’s concerns seriously and avoid undermining its rights or interests in handling the situation in Ukraine and ties with Russia, reports Reuters.

More reading out of agreed upon narrative talking points.



Wherever Putin goes with this, China will and has to follow and support. Still, leader writers are saying China is 'concerned' or being made to feel 'awkward'.
 
Raoul said:
Not sure if I believe this bit....

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The diplomatic route that should have been taken already to save lives. Although going by this thread Israel must now be communist putin apologists to dare suggest any deal.
 
groovyalbert said:
Israel are probably one of the only democratic state with good relations with both Ukraine and Russia outside of mainland Europe. They are also in need of open communication with Russia due to Syria/Russia controlling the airspace there, but will naturally support it's closer ally in Ukraine due to ideological and diplomatic reasons.
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What ideology would that be?

Israel is best described as an ethnocratic state, not a democratic one. But inside the ethnocratic system, they have a functioning system with "free" elections, "free" speech, and independent justice, that is more advanced than its counterpart in Ukraine.

Ukraine's flawed democracy is totally different. All the ethnic groups are treated equally. And they are slowly building a real liberal democracy.
 
Smores said:
The diplomatic route that should have been taken already to save lives. Although going by this thread Israel must now be communist putin apologists to dare suggest any deal.
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Yea, Israel, those masters of conflict resolution.
 
Smores said:
The diplomatic route that should have been taken already to save lives. Although going by this thread Israel must now be communist putin apologists to dare suggest any deal.
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Good luck having a neutral Ukraine once you have lopped off Crimea and Donbas. Russia wants to have its cake and to eat it. They want to take Crimea away from Ukraine, make the DNR and LNR puppet states, and then to also still have a Ukraine that is amenable to their meddling. Look at the electorate that will be left if that comes to pass. They'll have created an entirely European-facing, anti-Russia country right on their doorstep. Support for policies of ever greater European integration will be an absolute given... and we will revisit this in a few years time and wonder why Putin is suddenly crowing about the security threat of Ukrainian nationalists on their border.
 
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