I was just saying that if they dont stand down and that professor's scenario materializes, Russia is sent back to Stone Age while the rest of the world moves on, they will have nothing to lose in pressing the nuke button. Far stretched, I know.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Seems to be cutting off your nose to spite your face. Gas and oil are going to be their only major revenue sources, and they can't suddenly start shipping it to China. They don't have the pipelines or to convert it to LNH.
What they'll lose is the opportunity to go back to what they had...and having China at your back hardly puts you in the Stone Age anyway, it just means a massive and difficult reorganisation of their economy and little scope for growth.
The fact that they lost encrypted communications is amazing. I've seen a few pics of dubious origin of Russian pilots with Garmins for use as GPS in their planes, but there do seem to be more stories about the shoddy comms equipment the Russians are using more broadly. Hopefully the Ukrainians captured some of the secure comms equipment as well so it can be used against the Russians.And that's mostly correct but it does have one tiny flaw in that they would still have a chance to gain* by stepping back and reintegrating.
*Maybe not the gains they'd hoped for a couple of weeks ago.
Azov battalion is recruiting those people around Europe, so yes this happens not only in Portugal. And yes, sadly this is giving Russia some credibility.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...endence-on-russian-gas-by-almost-80-this-year
US look set to stop importing oil from Russia too.
How do you lose secure comms? Did the battery run out? Some of these I find hard to believe. They paint a picture of an army as if organised by several caf posters.
EDIT:
Just read that bit
What kind of morons....Wouldn't be surprised if the strategic comms require GSM too. This is hilarious.
A tiny sliver. One national guard battalion that isn't even regular army that has approximately 10% neo-nazi followers in its ranks.
Meanwhile, Russia has sent troops who have actually committed crimes against humanity instead of just having repugnant beliefs.
Yeah, which will drive up the price of oil, but the US only imports about 3-5% of its oil from Russia so it isn't a huge amount. That's why the US is trying to mend fences with Venezuela since they could increase capacity manyfold and replace Russia, but they are incompetent without outside help and can't under current sanctions.
I added follow-up tweets about their secure comms in my previous post. They basically disabled their ability to use them because they are morons.
God bless you for thinking there are no far right members in the Russian armed forces. I too hope Putin’s socialist regime wins this war!
If only there was a clear Zymbol we could Zee to indicate who the real faZcists are in thiZ war.
Imagine being an operator on the nato awacs flying on the Polish border and giggling over the abundance of ineptness shown in cleartext/ voice chatter that you actually don't need your 100m equipment to decode .
I'm sure there are, but some of these guys have been beating immigrants for years where I live (they even murdered an african student years ago), so there's an emotional connection.
If Putin starts doing that I am sure a few people within his inner circles will step up to the plate.
Macron today after his phone call with Putin.
The war in Ukraine is costly... getting $1B a day when the war is estimated to cost more than that a day.
https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/research-ukraine-war-costs-russian-military-20-billion-per-day
The only thing I'd disagree with about the contents of that thread is the comment that for the Russians "... time is likely on their side if they are will to endure the punishing sanctions and casualties".
Time is not on their side IMO. There are questions over how long they can finance their campaign at a huge cost per day, plus there will be growing unrest inside Russia over sanctions biting and troops arriving back in coffins, and all the while more defensive weapons and pro-Ukrainian fighters pour into the country.
Fair enough. I agree with the sentiment that these unsavoury elements do Ukraine no favours especially from an outside perspective, but as someone who has spent years in the country, in the areas where the Ukrainian resistance (and therefore the collaboration with the Nazis) led by Bandera is most invoked, I’ve never met or seen anyone celebrating Nazism in public. People give over due prominence to Azov and other right-wing fringe elements in Ukraine.
The history is somewhat complicated, but in the same way Russia has completely corrupted the slur of labelling someone a “Nazi”, in Ukraine the use of some Nazi symbology by some groups has become completely devoid of its original meaning too. It has become a sort of distillation of anti-Russian/-Soviet/-colonial sentiment from the oppression around WWII, more than any beliefs or understanding of German National Socialism.
Some of Philippe Sands’s books and the documentary he made touches on this.
He's wasting his time. Macron better not hope for any better with a mad man.
If he wants to focus on maintaining popularity at home ahead of the elections, it shouldn't be through talks. Also Putin already tried once to feck France up by pushing for Marine Le Pen in 2017, so no love lost there. Time to arm the Ukrainians with proper hardware now, Emmanuel.
but if you were a very nationalistic russian patriot, or a non-nationalist but caught up in that propaganda, you would think "how bad is the ruble, let's go home" or you would continue, even more convinced that together they want to end Russia, trying their weapons against your poor soldiers.
Maybe they would be willing to call reservists, volunteers and send everything they have. Maybe in another country it wouldn't happen but I imagine them prepared to accept (by hook or by crook) the absolute shit as long as they don't give up.
Ya to be fair I don't think Michael Kofman himself necessarily agrees with everything in the thread (based on what he said on the twitter space yesterday where at the moment he thinks this may end like the First Chechen War and that it will be hard for the Putin regime to survive this conflict), just saying that it's fair to state that it's hard to know what the balance of forces are currently without knowing how many casualties and losses of equipment the Ukrainians have suffered. With that said, the US again reiterated today that the Ukranian military still retains a significant amount of their pre-war air assets, which is ridiculous as these should have been eliminated in the first 24-72 hours.
I think it comes down to the number of casualties that Russian forces suffer and if/when the population starts to see the impact. You will always have hard-liners in the population but there is a lot of precedence for the Russian people to turn on a government if a war is going bad. I'm talking about the 80s/90s, you don't have to go back to the early 20th century to see examples.
Not sure a revanchist Japan is really what we need in this world.
I think its all part of a coordinated attack by the West. Now Putin cant spare as many resources as he had originally planned for Ukraine.
F-35s sent up to the Baltic, two B52s circling around Romania, near the Ukrainian border and now this?
That train of tanks from Vladivostok that was heading towards Ukraine may have to turn around now.
Wars cost money. The West will try and bleed Putin out financially before he gets to achieve any of his goals. The only thing he would have achieved in the end will be re-creating the USSR 2.0 economy. Flat ass broke.
It was to avoid this tread getting sidetracked.
The Kuril Islands have been invaded by the USSR and after Japan announced its surrender in August 1945. By definition, you could say that the Soviets violated a ceasefire prior to the formal surrender that would come on September 2. The last legal treaty regarding specific control of the islands was the Treaty of Saint Petersburg (1875), in which the eighteen islands north of Uruppu were ceded to Japan while all of Sakhalin is Russian. If anyone was revanchist, it was the Soviets only because their forebears were humiliated in the Russo-Japanese War. That and unfaithful translations in the Treaty of San Francisco are the reasons why Japan never wanted to sign a formal peace treaty with the USSR nor Russia to cede the Kuril Islands.
For the record, the Okinawa prefecture was under American control between 1945 and 1972. There comes a time when it's better for a country with little or no historical business in a region to let it go.
The thing about revanchism is that it doesn't always matter who is right or wrong. Were the French right to be revanchist over Alsace-Lorraine after the Franco-Prussian War? Probably. But it's still a contributing cause of WW1.
Interviews of Moscovites after the war/special operations started:
* the couple interviewed is pretty funny. A comedy act esp the guy.
* the couple interviewed is pretty funny. A comedy act esp the guy.
Now we know: Russia’s horrific past could become our future under Putin
Dmitry Glukhovsky
Dmitry Glukhovsky is a Russian novelist and journalist. This article was first published by Novaya Gazeta in Russia
[ In October 2021, Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, alongside Maria Ressa, for their safeguarding of freedom of expression in their homelands. ]
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ias-past-future-under-putin-soviet-repression
Dmitry Glukhovsky
Dmitry Glukhovsky is a Russian novelist and journalist. This article was first published by Novaya Gazeta in Russia
[ In October 2021, Novaya Gazeta's editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, alongside Maria Ressa, for their safeguarding of freedom of expression in their homelands. ]
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ias-past-future-under-putin-soviet-repression
Just thinking out loud here, but seems odd they someone would design a system like this and not think that through? Could western cyber hacking be partly responsible for this? Sure the US could shut down most networks and systems should they want to do so
Read this thread - incompetence on every level possible.
The war in Ukraine is costly... getting $1B a day when the war is estimated to cost more than that a day.
https://www.consultancy.eu/news/7433/research-ukraine-war-costs-russian-military-20-billion-per-day
So stopping the war is a win then...
Britain and Germany just voted against stopping oil and gas imports from Russia.
Voted where? Their parliaments?
The Trilogy looms
How predictable.