Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Sumy was heavily bombarded last night. Olexander Scherba’s twitter account has collated a lot of the footage of the rescue effort, which I am not linking directly to try and respect the rules.
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba?s=21
All costs? Not sure any concession is worth all.
At this point Putin would accept only the seperatist regions and Crimea, before he has to retreat back to those areas anyway.
At that point Ukraine will militarize the border with those regions with equipment and materials sent from from all over the world, exactly what Russia didn't want.
Before this NATO was asleep, Germany had no army. Next time his army intervenes somewhere like Kazakhstan or Georgia it will likely be world news and bring more sanctions.
I thought Russia not paying foreign bond holders was a smart move, as far as some way they can retaliate. I'm sure they'll find some ways to make the West hurt a bit. You'd think they'd refuse to sell fuel to Europe, even if only for a few days to generate headlines. They might need the money too badly for such a stunt.
I work in cybersecurity and I can definitely confirm that anyone and their dog can hack most networks and systems should they want to do so, not only the US.
I don't think EU or NATO would intervene (militarily) in anything that happens in Kazakhstan (in particular) or Georgia though. Especially the EU has no reach there. NATO via Turkey might, but only barely and it'll again be a case of Russia being far more willing to raise the stakes than anyone in the West would be. Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO organisation too.
Interesting polling about the shift in opinion on the war within Russia. Very small sample size but still gives a bit of hope that the propaganda is no longer sticking. FYI - It doesn’t mention anything about Iraq.
Shameful. The Ukrainians are being bombed and killed, but we can't handle minor inconveniences.
Now if only we could also take a few thousand Ukrainian refugees, instead of like 50, that would be nice. Not that I have any real expectations from our Home Office and Priti Patel though.
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Chaos, upheaval and exhaustion for Ukraine's disabled children
They had been travelling for thirty hours already. There were many hours ahead. The bus to the Polish border was a capsule of exhaustion, grief and tender mercies. Carers hugged the frightened children and whispered soothing sounds. It was not a time or place for words. There were none that could have explained the madness engulfing the world of the children from Kharkiv's Hippocrates Care Centre. They were aged between one and three and all were disabled, with serious medical conditions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60648735
They had been travelling for thirty hours already. There were many hours ahead. The bus to the Polish border was a capsule of exhaustion, grief and tender mercies. Carers hugged the frightened children and whispered soothing sounds. It was not a time or place for words. There were none that could have explained the madness engulfing the world of the children from Kharkiv's Hippocrates Care Centre. They were aged between one and three and all were disabled, with serious medical conditions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60648735
It's ironic because we always proclaim that no price can be put on human life, but we do constantly do it.
However, if the EU were to embargo Russian Oil/Gas it would take a very big financial hit that would affect lower social strata and poorer countries the most and it would require an expensive coordinated response. It's not just about Germany alone here and it's not just about inconveniences.
Think about what happens to the poorest members in Southern, Eastern and Balkan Europe when the price of oil and gas blows up. What happens in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. Slovakia, Greece etc. when the energy bills start to cost more than what people bring home each month. That's not just a minor inconvenience.
Please keep this thread on track. If you want to talk about other wars etc take it to the whaboutism threadYes I wonder why.
Ah okay so invading a country is fine if you make up fables and deem the leader a bad guy. Makes sense.
Out of curiosity, how can he contact the world from his jail cell? There were a bunch of calls to action by him already. I imagine he's generally isolated but talks to his family and friends who then publish it. But I can't imagine he won't be punished for this type of stuff?
First of all, even the original thread is very speculative to say the least (including misquoting the only direct quote that he includes). It’s incredibly hard to properly reconstruct what was happening at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (Hitler’s invasion of Russia), as all sources are extremely biased towards themselves, but Galeev’s version is extremely far-fetched.
As for Putin, we’ll never know. He doesn’t have a smartphone or a direct internet access (willingly), so he’s extremely reliant on the rigid chain that updates him with information, but I doubt that anyone would dare to significantly alter the real numbers/situation — if anything, lying to Putin has to be scarier than telling him disappointing truth. Obviously all of the info would be slightly altered to fit the narrative better, but I doubt that it would be completely altered. And you have to understand that the guys that supply Putin with info (FSB & FSS) aren’t military, so Putin’s anger won’t be directed at them.
As the apparent FSB informant said, they were only bullshitting on the potential projections of a future war as no one thought that it was a realistic perspective — so they’ve focused their analysis on different scenarios. Now, when the war is in action, it’s a different point.
Through his lawyers or through his wife, yes, when they get visits. Plus, I’d imagine, he has some stuff pre-written for certain scenarios.
He probably gets punished for that but he gets punished for literally anything including no reason at all, so it’s hardly changing anything for him.
Edit: this particular series of tweets look like the work of his team entirely, I doubt that Navalny had anything to do with it, except for probably approving the initial idea.
Didnt think UK got to vote in the European Parliament ... brexit etc
I don't think the UK are keen on blocking imports of Russian oil though.
surprised hes not fallen down the stairs and had a fatal accident where the back of his head lands on a bullet than just happened to fall from a guards pistol who was trying to catch him
That's the price of human life, inconvenience.
It is also worth emphasising that he has a whole team working in his name in exile.
Around 18000 people. It’s not news though, Japan & Russia both claim that theory as theirs for decades and we don’t even have an active peace treaty for them — de jure it’s probably the longest current war in existence.
To be fair if Zelenskey survives this (and im pretty sure putin will be trying everything from thermobaric bombs to polonium tea to ensure he doesnt) hes going to be a real player in world politics as I cant think of any leader around the world who commands more personal respect
That’s not Zelenskyy.
To be fair if Zelenskey survives this (and im pretty sure putin will be trying everything from thermobaric bombs to polonium tea to ensure he doesnt) hes going to be a real player in world politics as I cant think of any leader around the world who commands more personal respect
Yeah, at this point it’s not like Putin’s public image would take any damage from that
Yeah, I posted this before looking at the tweets and thought that this was one of his personal addresses that he gives through his lawyer or wife, but this is the work of his team that has access to all of his social media.
fair enough ... glanced on the phone and assumed
Not if you view it from the standpoint of a Russian Dictator, from that position NATO is presented as a (convenient) sort of 'boogieman' figure to frighten the people with. The closer the 'boogieman comes', (and Ukraine is damned close from that perspective) then your reason for taking action becomes easier to justify inside Russia. Short of starting WW3, Putin will not be stopped by outsiders, the only really possibility to stop him is for his own people to realise what kind of a future he is storing up for Russia with the rest of the world.
Unfortunately Putin has had decades (and sometimes perhaps with unwitting support from the West) to as it were 'salt' the organs of power in Russia, be that political, militarily, economically, with his own people/supporters and right at the top sit a number of the so called oligarchs, these initially are the only ones even capable of exerting any sort of pressure/sense on Putin.
The worry for them, and the rest of the world, is that Putin intends to go down 'all guns blazing'.
I’d joke that white people all look the same, but this guy is half-Korean too!
Wow, really? So cybersecurity is just a pipe dream? I always thought it takes a genius to hack some site. Damn.
Exactly... perhaps hes going to go full north korea and stick in front of an anti aircraft gunYeah, at this point it’s not like Putin’s public image would take any damage from that
Would be very surprised if he survived even the first murmurs of any popular uprising though ... I suspect the coup of 91 would have played out differently without yeltsin and im sure putin has learned at least that lesson from history
Probably not the most relevant demographics to be fair as he’s shooting next to a university (Russian State University for the Humanities) with mostly students that also study history & other humanitarian disciplines (I’d hazard a guess that the channel’s owner is probably a student there). I’d imagine that the anti-war sentiment in that demographic would extremely high — probably even above 90%, but it’s not the same in general population. Haven’t seen the second video though.
Unless they fancy an even harder recession than the one the sanctions are already going to put us through
Indeed, I'm sure their impact assessments are pretty grim if the embargo went forward. Millions thrown into poverty, pensions hit, associated overall poverty and fuel poverty leading to deaths.
You've got to weigh that up against the impact it would actually have on Russia and in turn Ukraine. It's easy to shout down something that looks like a lack of support from a position of complete ignorance about its effectiveness and impacts.
Cybersecurity works if companies spend money for passive and active(most expensive) measures. You'd be amazed how many big companies still use old and not secure operating systems, certificates, storage etc.
I get the sentiment but people in Western nations sometimes forget their poor is not really the same as poor nations' poor.
By that I mean that having such high energy costs literally means no heating for a lot of people (most even) and that can also lead to political extremism and division which serves Putin yet again. High energy costs could also lead to firms closing, so no jobs. We are literally talking about 5-10x increase in costs which is monumental.
It's just not as simple as people make it out to be. The real bad decision was relying on Russia in the first place without contingencies. Now, you're at their beck and call, at least in the very short term.
But at least we know its not monolithic and not everyone has bought into the propaganda. As they say, the kids are our future. Teach them well and let the lead the way.
A friend of mine used to work for the NSA. He claims he can hack into ny bank's system within 20-30mins. And as a result, is paranoid too. He does any/all financial transactions using a virtual machine within his linux pc.
Even if you invest a lot of money in cybersecurity, there are bound to be vulnerabilities. If you are targeted by a hacking collective, you can hope they don't get in. If you are targeted by countries that are known for hacking such as Russia, you can forget about it.