Fierce resistance by Ukraine and logistical problems have slowed it down, yes. The current consensus is that their assumptions and expectations were laughably optimistic.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Please provide an English translation when possible.
More than likely, the only way Putin would be tried before the ICCJ is at the conclusion of the war. The example given by the experts is that of how the sanctions in Bosnia held until after the war and the sanctions remained until war criminals were surrendered to authorities. Russia is obvious NOT Bosnia, but that's the current line of thinking.
First, he has to be toppled by the masses or by a new government, and then he gets transferred to The Hague. That is how Slobodan Milosevic was sent there from Serbia after being found of guilty of other crimes in his own country.
Any chance something like this going on? That Generals are telling Putin, everything is okay, just minor hiccups.
I've read that Putin is very isolated, not even having a smartphone.
@harms do you think something like this is possible?
It is apparently the lowest of the 4 general ranks, so a 1-star. It is not in itself an indicator of military failure for any single general to be killed, or even a handful. Killing generals is also not an effective way in itself to win a war. It is more relevant if it is as part of effectively destroying (at least partially) the units that they command. Broader losses of experienced personnel at every leadership level, from NCOs through mid-level and general Officers, do reduce an army's ability to fight effectively.
It's a 1 star general, according to Wikipedia, equivalent to a Brigadier General in the US or UK.
I think in all armies General Major is a two star general. Typically has a few thousand people under their command.
Seeing this is hearthbroken. Part of me doesn't want to live anymore. People are just animals!
Now Bellingcat also reporting it.
We were one of the few to send them lethal aid before the invasion happened, I think for all our ills as a country our intelligence services seem pretty on point.
A general shouldn't die, I mean, if he dies maybe it's because he was too far ahead, like the one who died a few days ago from a sniper shot when he stood in front of a convoy to try to organize chaos.
I've been thinking that, if Ukraine survives this as a free and democratic nation and the Russian troops leave, I could go there for a few weeks and do whatever I can to help in ways that don't really need me to understand the Ukrainian language - e.g. help to cart away rubble, or clean up stuff, or help cook food.
Is this a good idea or would I just be an unwanted distraction?
Is this a good idea or would I just be an unwanted distraction?
I assume he moved to a different location after this, and they evacuated the entire building? I imagine the Russians are going to easily figure out where that is, and send a missile at it.
From a professor at IE Business school in Madrid.
Nobody here can tell you for sure. The worry is, as you say, that you would be an unwarranted distraction. Like some of those guys on Reddit who are living out their own hero fantasies, by just going to... whatever, and taking plenty of selfies and putting them on social media. One guy was wearing a Canadian flag badge, and a "medic" badge, despite the fact that he had zero military experience and zero medical experience. He'd done a few hours of some kind of course, or something.
Maybe they would need help with manual labour? It's unclear how else you could personally help now. If you weren't from Britain, you could feasibly help transport refugees to your country (as some Norwegians are doing right now). Or contact the government if you're at all able to house refugees or help them in some other way, but again I don't know how that's going to work for Brits.
I'd see if there are any aid organizations or local Ukrainian organizations that you could contact, and just ask them what you can do.
I don't think they care about where they are evacuated... The Russian army are running out of time and want to carpet bomb the resistance in Mariupol & Kharkiv (maybe more), and that would be easier to do once the civilians are supposedly evacuated.
The truth is you can never evacuate an entire population and bombing civilians will always be a War crime. We are facing an Aleppo/Grozny scenario.
Don't have to be a professer to know that but its still nice to hear.I'd reached the same conclusion a few days ago. Putin wants to bring back the glory of the Soviet Union but all he's going to end up with is the Soviet economy.
If that happens, they will have nothing to lose in pressing the nuke button.
This makes me happy
Pressing the button is a pure loss scenario. No chance of gain. Through all of what's happened so far and what is yet to come, Russia has a chance of gain and it is achievable by standing down.
That professor's scenario is a pure loss one though.
Oh, I imagine there will be a lot to do all over the country and there will be a lot of volunteering possibilities.
Zelenskyy’s recent speeches have already had a big focus on the rebuilding effort.
It's a pure loss of the kind nations have had before. Pressing the button is a pure loss in that it will 100% guaranteed wipe out your own civilization and country, and the survivors will probably know you're responsible.
No it's not, an end to sanctions can be negotiated. They're also still receiving €1bn a day from Europe for oil and gas and China are still tacitly supporting them, albeit very much at arm's length now.
They do, as they want to create propaganda that civilians are running to Russia and not west. That Russia saved them from Ukrainian neonazis that were shelling them.
It might well be selection bias, but the more you read things and see video clips, the more it looks like the Russian military campaign is a totally disorganised mess.
We've all read about some ukranian army connections to neonazis in the past. Today I read that a famous portuguese neonazi is going to ukraine with a group of other neonazis to fight for Ukraine. I'm curious if this is happening in other countries. Definitely not the kind of publicity they want at this point.
They shouldn't let him in.
We are only seeing one side. Very few informations on UA losses. Russians are still advancing. If Kharkiv and Mariupol fall, that might be huge for their war effort. They'll stall eventually, but question is where and how long.
If they do, I'll have to root for the russians who face him and his buddies. These guys fit exactly what the russian propaganda is saying, absolute scum.
A pure loss scenario is when you have only a chance of loss or no loss, and no chance to gain.
Russia's economy going to shit because of Putin's war is one that still has a chance of gain despite the forecast. If his forces stand down and the sanctions are lifted the economy can recover. As we've seen in the past with Russia, even in the darkest times, their economy can bounce back relatively quickly,
They'll let him in. Look up Azov batallion.
I know about the Azov batallion.
They should. Wind him up and point him at some impossible to take position and then we'll never have to hear from him again.
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Advancing is not necessarily a good idea at this point...going further from your fuel and ammo supplies isn't where I'd want to be if I were a Russian soldier.