Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

MadMike said:
It's ironic because we always proclaim that no price can be put on human life, but we do constantly do it.

However, if the EU were to embargo Russian Oil/Gas it would take a very big financial hit that would affect lower social strata and poorer countries the most and it would require an expensive coordinated response. It's not just about Germany alone here and it's not just about inconveniences.

Think about what happens to the poorest members in Southern, Eastern and Balkan Europe when the price of oil and gas blows up. What happens in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. Slovakia, Greece etc. when the energy bills start to cost more than what people bring home each month. That's not just a minor inconvenience.
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It goes far beyond that for Germany aswell which is why they are so hesitant to sign off on a full on gas/oil embargo, the hardest economic sanction they could deliver. That would be an incredibly hot double edged sword that might deliver the killing blow to the remnants of the Russian economy but it would also cut deeply into their own economy.

A lot of people connect such an embargo just with higher costs to heat homes or run their cars or price hikes for a lot of goods, but the brunt of this embargo would not be felt by the households, but the industrial sectors of the country. This is where the majority of Russian gas and oil goes to and if they stop importing these ressources it won´t be long until the factories stand still. Keep that up long enough and whole supply chains (which are already compromised by the the other sanctions) will choke up leading to massive trouble for the suppliers of parts, which are majorly specialised businesses of the "Mittelstand", the backbone of the economy.

People can by all means advocate for doing that if they believe that this is the necessary step but they should be aware of the full consequences of it: a deep recession and damage to a stable but struggling economy that is still recovering from Covid, a lot of bankruptcies of smaller busineses and a large number of layoffs. Let´s see how long the solidarity for the Ukrainian people and tolerance of the three million strong Russian population lasts when that war will be the reason for losing their livelihoods.

The problems would not be contained inside the country aswell. Putin was rightfully accused of trying to destabilise the European Union, but there are few things that would be more damaging to the stability of the Union than a severly damaged German economy. Germany has been the biggest economical profiteer of the EU but it is also by far the biggest net payer and in times of crisis it was the robustness of its economy that build the spine and held it together. You bring Germanys ecomomy to its knees and a lot of smaller less richer countries will follow. This whole thing is a damn mess.
 
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CNN's Fareed Zakaria Rejects Idea Of 'White Double Standard' In Ukraine Coverage



Usually agree with Fareed, but he is wrong here
 
Shakesey said:
Wow, really? So cybersecurity is just a pipe dream? I always thought it takes a genius to hack some site. Damn.
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I was interested in Cybersecurity during college but didn't pursue it because there were hardly any jobs. Most companies under invest in security.
 
Rightnr said:
It's just not as simple as people make it out to be. The real bad decision was relying on Russia in the first place without contingencies. Now, you're at their beck and call, at least in the very short term.
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It was the best option at the time in terms of weighing up costs, going more green (reducing dependence to the more greenhouse gas emitting burning of coal/lignite) and the NIMBY effect in democracies when it comes to building power plants. We're saying what we're saying with quite a lot of hindsight now. I certainly hold my hand up in not expecting the situation with Russia to blow up 10 years ago.

But I hope this becomes a wake up call for Europe in terms of the need to become self-dependent in the future. It will take a lot of investment and time, but for Europe to prosper long term it be needs to self-sufficient when it comes to energy, security, manufacturing and staple foods/water. The latter are not really a concern but we have had a long history of dependence on US/NATO for protection and Russia or Middle East for energy.

We're always happy to spend money on weapons on this continent, so I have no doubt we can become self-dependent security wise. But wrt to energy we'll need a big investment drive for both renewable energy and a backbone of nuclear power until fusion becomes viable. But that discussion is for another thread.
 
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Sphaero said:
It goes far beyond that for Germany as well which is why they are so hesitant to sign off on a full on gas/oil embargo, the hardest economic sanction they could deliver. That would be an incredibly hot double edged sword that might deliver the killing blow to the remnants of the Russian economy but it would also cut deeply into their own economy.

A lot of people connect such an embargo just with higher costs to heat homes or run their cars or price hikes for a lot of goods, but the brunt of this embargo would not be felt by the households, but the industrial sectors of the country. This is where the majority of Russian gas and oil goes to and if they stop importing these resources it won´t be long until the factories stand still. Keep that up long enough and whole supply chains (which are already compromised by the the other sanctions) will choke up leading to massive trouble for the suppliers of parts, which are majorly specialised businesses of the "Mittelstand", the backbone of the economy.

People can by all means advocate for doing that if they believe that this is the necessary step but they should be aware of the full consequences of it: a deep recession and damage to a stable but struggling economy that is still recovering from Covid, a lot of bankruptcies of smaller businesses and a large number of layoffs. Let´s see how long the solidarity for the Ukrainian people and tolerance of the three million strong Russian population lasts when that war will be the reason for losing their livelihoods.

The problems would not be contained inside the country as well. Putin was rightfully accused of trying to destabilise the European Union, but there are few things that would be more damaging to the stability of the Union than a severely damaged German economy. Germany has been the biggest economical profiteer of the EU but it is also by far the biggest net payer and in times of crisis it was the robustness of its economy that build the spine and held it together. You bring Germanys economy to its knees and a lot of smaller less richer countries will follow. This whole thing is a damn mess.
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I agree. I see the embargo of Russian energy as the economic equivalent of the dropping a nuclear bomb at the moment. It's almost like MAD (mutually assured destruction). Yes it will bring the Russian economy to its knees, but equally it will create an incredible amount of hardship in Europe as well. It goes well beyond minor inconvenience. And I'm not sure the democracies will handle that very well, we'll see both a lot of poverty and a lot of political extremism that could erode Europe from within.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
So how did UK vote against stopping Russian gas then? I though the European Parliament didn’t include UK reps?
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i can't find the tweet anymore which referenced BJ's position.

Meanwhile at least UK workers have the bollocks to do the right thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...cheshire-dockers-uk-refinery-ship-russian-oil


found it - https://www.theguardian.com/politic...087f6d099f2a37#block-622620238f087f6d099f2a37


Q: Can you say more about your discussions on energy? The US secretary of state says we should consider cutting off Russian oil. Do you agree? And should we have “a climate change pass”, as it has been claimed you favour?


Johnson says you cannot simply close down imports of oil and gas from Russia overnight.


But all countries should be moving in the same direction, he says. And they should accelerate that.


He says he sees no inconsistency between reducing reliance on Russian hydrocarbons and reducing reliance on hydrocarbons altogether.
 
MadMike said:
It was the best option at the time in terms of weighing up costs, going more green (reducing dependence to the more greenhouse gas emitting burning of coal/lignite) and the NIMBY effect in democracies when it comes to building power plants. We're saying what we're saying with quite a lot of hindsight now. I certainly hold my hand up in not expecting the situation with Russia to blow up 10 years ago.

But I hope this becomes a wake up call for Europe in terms of the need to become self-dependent in the future. It will take a lot of investment and time, but for Europe to prosper long term it be needs to self-sufficient when it comes to energy, security, manufacturing and staple foods/water. The latter are not really a concern but we have had a long history of dependence on US/NATO for protection and Russia or Middle East for energy.

We're always happy to spend money on weapons on this continent, so I have no doubt we can become self-dependent security wise. But wrt to energy we'll need a big investment drive for both renewable energy and a backbone of nuclear power until fusion becomes viable. But that discussion is for another thread.
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Neither the economic nor security arguments have made sense for fossil fuels for an awfully long time. Solar has been cheaper than coal and gas for years now in most countries, and wind not far behind. Most European countries' grids could handle much more renewable input even without significant change in storage capacity or management methods. The stupidity and vested interests of billionaires and politicians in the carbon bubble is the only reason we've not taken the energy transition much more seriously. Even now, Germany just announced €100bn for defence and at the same time hailed €2bn as a "massive investment" in renewable energy. And the Greens form part of their coalition.
 
Zlatattack said:
i can't find the tweet anymore which referenced BJ's position.

Meanwhile at least UK workers have the bollocks to do the right thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...cheshire-dockers-uk-refinery-ship-russian-oil


found it - https://www.theguardian.com/politic...087f6d099f2a37#block-622620238f087f6d099f2a37


Q: Can you say more about your discussions on energy? The US secretary of state says we should consider cutting off Russian oil. Do you agree? And should we have “a climate change pass”, as it has been claimed you favour?


Johnson says you cannot simply close down imports of oil and gas from Russia overnight.


But all countries should be moving in the same direction, he says. And they should accelerate that.


He says he sees no inconsistency between reducing reliance on Russian hydrocarbons and reducing reliance on hydrocarbons altogether.
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Ok. Just when you said the UK has voted against stopping accepting oil and gas from Russia, I thought there was some formal vote I'd not heard of (not a tweet by The Guardian)
 


If true, it shows in impressive fashion how no word from Moscow can be trusted and Ukraine are exactly right not to entertain any negotiations with the requirements mentioned yesterday
 
Maticmaker said:
Not if you view it from the standpoint of a Russian Dictator, from that position NATO is presented as a (convenient) sort of 'boogieman' figure to frighten the people with. The closer the 'boogieman comes', (and Ukraine is damned close from that perspective) then your reason for taking action becomes easier to justify inside Russia. Short of starting WW3, Putin will not be stopped by outsiders, the only really possibility to stop him is for his own people to realise what kind of a future he is storing up for Russia with the rest of the world.

Unfortunately Putin has had decades (and sometimes perhaps with unwitting support from the West) to as it were 'salt' the organs of power in Russia, be that political, militarily, economically, with his own people/supporters and right at the top sit a number of the so called oligarchs, these initially are the only ones even capable of exerting any sort of pressure/sense on Putin.

The worry for them, and the rest of the world, is that Putin intends to go down 'all guns blazing'.
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I'm not talking about how it's presented to the Russian people, I'm talking about how it actually is for Putin and his cronies - and for them it's all about holding onto power (and thus wealth) by repressing freedom and democracy. This is why they don't want to see a free and democratic Ukraine for fear of the example its sets to the Russian people.
 
hellhunter said:


If true, it shows in impressive fashion how no word from Moscow can be trusted and Ukraine are exactly right not to entertain any negotiations with the requirements mentioned yesterday
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This is the kind of stuff that annoys me when I watch movies and read books.

No way can someone be this evil and yet again reality is less believable than fiction.
 
hellhunter said:


If true, it shows in impressive fashion how no word from Moscow can be trusted and Ukraine are exactly right not to entertain any negotiations with the requirements mentioned yesterday
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I'm curious how complicit the Russian Generals and below are in all this. The guys loading and firing the artillery will not know what is at the end of the coordinates they are given. Do the commanders know the road they're told to attack has been designated as an evacuation route? How far down the chain does the evil stretch?
 
I've moved over 30 posts to the Geopolitica thread. The majority of which were posted 8n this thread after GB and I requested people not to. Please don't make us start thread banning people.
 
11101 said:
Apparently appearing gullible and incompetent is all part of a big masterplan on his part.
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I'm not surprise that he hasn't been loved by French people that much. As I have followed him for a while, I see this guy usually makes a lot of wrong decisions and sometimes a bit dumbass too.
 
General_Elegancia said:
I'm not surprise that he hasn't been loved by French people that much. As I have followed him for a while, I see this guy usually makes a lot of wrong decisions and sometimes a bit dumbass too.
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Care to elaborate?
 
11101 said:
Apparently appearing gullible and incompetent is all part of a big masterplan on his part.
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I mean...surely it's admirable that Macron wants to help out diplomatically? It is what it is, the Russians will betray promises, but that's hardly Macrons fault, no?
 
VorZakone said:
I mean...surely it's admirable that Macron wants to help out diplomatically? It is what it is, the Russians will betray promises, but that's hardly Macrons fault, no?
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Every major country has diplomatic lines open to Russia. Macron just keeps telling everybody about his.
 
I think the pressure of applying a NFZ

The potential move for a NATO Country in Poland, providing airfields and aircraft for the Ukrainians air defence

Is all leading us very very close to potential motions being put in place which will set off scenarios that cannot be reversed leading to a much more heavy involvement militarily from NATO further down the line.
 
11101 said:
I'm curious how complicit the Russian Generals and below are in all this. The guys loading and firing the artillery will not know what is at the end of the coordinates they are given. Do the commanders know the road they're told to attack has been designated as an evacuation route? How far down the chain does the evil stretch?
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The Ukrainians killed one of them, and one of the Russian General's sons also died yesterday. Unfortunately/ fortunately, one of the three men that hold the keys to nuclear Armageddon
 
harms said:
First of all, even the original thread is very speculative to say the least (including misquoting the only direct quote that he includes). It’s incredibly hard to properly reconstruct what was happening at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War (Hitler’s invasion of Russia), as all sources are extremely biased towards themselves, but Galeev’s version is extremely far-fetched.

As for Putin, we’ll never know. He doesn’t have a smartphone or a direct internet access (willingly), so he’s extremely reliant on the rigid chain that updates him with information, but I doubt that anyone would dare to significantly alter the real numbers/situation — if anything, lying to Putin has to be scarier than telling him disappointing truth. Obviously all of the info would be slightly altered to fit the narrative better, but I doubt that it would be completely altered. And you have to understand that the guys that supply Putin with info (FSB & FSS) aren’t military, so Putin’s anger won’t be directed at them.

As the apparent FSB informant said, they were only bullshitting on the potential projections of a future war as no one thought that it was a realistic perspective — so they’ve focused their analysis on different scenarios. Now, when the war is in action, it’s a different point.
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Why would he not want direct internet access? And where does the information that he doesn't have direct internet access come from?
 
I’m so glad we are not having to get relatives out in a hurry. It’s our friends who we cannot help at all with a place to live, some community, that is really embittering.


 
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