Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Siorac said:
Depends on how they'd do it - if it's North Korean-style then yes.

Tor could still work. But I don't believe they'll do it anyway.
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Tor wouldn't work if they've severed all connections with the internet. As far as I know, Tor is basically like a VPN anyway, just with more nodes (and less logs).

But yeah, no way it happens.
 
sglowrider said:
According to the translated version of the FSB whistleblower -- they never planned for such a scenario.
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I wonder how much China making Russia wait for the Olympics to end hurt Russia's attempted blitzkreig. It let the Ukrainians prepare and get intel in advance. Foolish of Putin to assume China would be ok with that distraction, he should have sent the army over a day after the closing ceremonies
 
sglowrider said:
According to the translated version of the FSB whistleblower -- they never planned for such a scenario.
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Some selected extracts:

"With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!) ... even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

... Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had 'provisional' success.

... To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."
 
Klopper76 said:
Putin wants control or at least some say over what happens with the natural gas supply in the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian control of that threatens Russia’s monopoly as a natural gas supplier for Europe (they currently provide 50% of Germany’s natural gas supply), and therefore the Russian economy.

I think that and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO (therefore surrounding Belarus on three sides) are what drives him with this. That and the fact that he’s seemingly a bit unhinged.
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this.
 
atkar83 said:
I wonder how much China making Russia wait for the Olympics to end hurt Russia's attempted blitzkreig. It let the Ukrainians prepare and get intel in advance. Foolish of Putin to assume China would be ok with that distraction, he should have sent the army over a day after the closing ceremonies
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Agent Xi? Or Putin could have waited another year instead of fighting during the Mud season.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Some selected extracts:

"With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!) ... even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.

... Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had 'provisional' success.

... To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."
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June seems to be the month mentioned a bit. JP Morgan did an analysis that the economy would have shrunk by 35% come June too.
 
ExoduS said:
I hope you are right, but in few of those instances only luck and small details resulted into peaceful resolution. What is happening right now is very, very scary.
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It’s another proxy war in a long list of proxy wars that’ve been fought throughout the Cold War. The West’s mistake was believing the Cold War ever ended.
 
MTF said:
Amazing that they assess that both sides still have majority of their air defense assets, from the perspective of Ukraine still having them!
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This may be because the Ukrainians don't have the resources to go after Russian SAM launchers and the Russians haven't been successful in neutralizing Ukrainian manpad systems, which are easy to hide and are also getting replenished from the outside.
 
Raoul said:
This may be because the Ukrainians don't have the resources to go after Russian SAM launchers and the Russians haven't been successful in neutralizing Ukrainian manpad systems, which are easy to hide and are also getting replenished from the outside.
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But I think what's implied in the statement (although I could be reading too much into it) is that Ukraine still has a majority of its fighter aircraft and more advanced AA capabilities, not just manpads.
 
MTF said:
But I think what's implied in the statement (although I could be reading too much into it) is that Ukraine still has a majority of its fighter aircraft and more advanced AA capabilities, not just manpads.
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When they say "air defense systems" that usually refers to the ability to shoot down enemy aircraft.
 
nimic said:
Yes.

I guess I don't really buy that they're going to do it, though.
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Well they could set a great firewall like the China does. It would help promote their propaganda to brainwash their people for sure.

You know in the eyes of billions of Chinese people, it is the Western propaganda (those we feed into everyday) which is evil. No kidding, majority of Chinese people there are in support of the Russian, and thinks NATO is the cause of the whole Ukraine war mess, while war crimes against civilians are mostly committed by Ukraine soldiers (Neo-Nazi) in order to gain global support. So it works for them, no matter how twisted it sounds to us.
 
BBC (March 7th, 2.15am):

"UK defence officials have said they believe Russian forces made minimal gains over the past 48 hours, with its troops remaining bogged down by stiff Ukrainian resistance and poor logistical support.

In a daily intelligence report published by the Ministry of Defence, officials said it is "highly unlikely that Russia has successfully achieved its planned objectives to date".

But they added "a high level of Russian air and artillery strikes have continued to hit military and civilian sites in Ukrainian cities" over the past 24 hours.

"Recent strikes have targeted Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Chernihiv, and been particularly heavy in Mariupol," the assessment said.

It comes as the Chief of the UK's Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, told the BBC that Russian troops had been failing to operate "in a competent fashion", and this was "impacting on morale".

He added that "those that have been leading the fight for Russia have suffered just terrible losses" since the invasion began."
 
nimic said:
The end of WW2 didn't turn into WW3, Korea didn't, Vietnam didn't, Hungary and Prague didn't, Sputnik didn't, the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis didn't, Afghanistan didn't, etc. I doubt this will either.
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Good post.

It's worthwhile taking a step back and embracing some context. We've teetered much closer to nuclear war with Russia than this in the past, of all of these occasions I'd say the closest was the Cuban missile crisis when the steadfast actions of a Russian naval officer was all that stood in the way of Russia opening a thermonuclear exchange. Then there was the 1983 false alarm, where once again a single Soviet general made the call not to launch ICBMs in response to a perceived western attack.

So we look at the current situation, Russia has invaded Ukraine and NATO has repeatedly ruled out getting involved. It's horrible, but it's not the same. Putin's nuclear rhetoric is just that. Literally nobody wants to see Ukraine being mutilated, annexed and/or made a Russian vassal, but western governments don't want WW3 either.
 
Mad Vlad appears to be running out of Russian conscripts and is now resorting to all kinds of mercenaries.

 
nimic said:
The end of WW2 didn't turn into WW3, Korea didn't, Vietnam didn't, Hungary and Prague didn't, Sputnik didn't, the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis didn't, Afghanistan didn't, etc. I doubt this will either.
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Depends how you see it. We are very close to nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, literally one button away - the Soviet captain had ordered to fire the missile, Moscow and Soviet deputy political officer had authorised it, and its up to Soviet commander to press the button to launch it, but he is rational, kept his cool and did not press the button, and the rest is history.
 
Raoul said:
Mad Vlad appears to be running out of Russian conscripts and is now resorting to all kinds of mercenaries.

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I don’t understand this. If Ukrainian figures are to be believed then Russia have lost 10,000 troops, but that still leaves 190k. Why would they already be at the point of desperately needing more?
 
sullydnl said:
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This is totally why Russia cut off the reactors they have control of from the outside world.

I guess if these Russian soldiers are happy to ruthlessly murder civilians they won't have any issues blowing up a nuclear plant and contaminating an area for years or causing lots of cancer.
 
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RedRonaldo said:
Depends how you see it. We are very close to nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, literally one button away - the Soviet captain had ordered to fire the missile, Moscow and Soviet deputy political officer had authorised it, and its up to Soviet commander to press the button to launch it, but he is rational, kept his cool and did not press the button, and the rest is history.
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TBH I think this whole setup of sanctions is entirely of China and USA creation for the purpose of China taking a controlling stake in Russia and the removal of Putin either by force or by appointment.

The West will never control Putin or Russia but it’s entirely plausible that China is sick of a hostile and irrational dickhead neighbouring their largest border with the threat of nuclear war always one press conference away. China are many things but they’re not the same level of confrontation.

China keep North Korea on a leash and id imagine their plans are the same for Russia.
 
JamesB__ said:
I don’t understand this. If Ukrainian figures are to be believed then Russia have lost 10,000 troops, but that still leaves 190k. Why would they already be at the point of desperately needing more?
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Possibly because many are conscripts who are either unmotivated and/or incompetent at carrying out basic orders. As opposed to more battle hardened mercenaries such as Wagner and others from places like Syria.
 
mariachi-19 said:
TBH I think this whole setup of sanctions is entirely of China and USA creation for the purpose of China taking a controlling stake in Russia and the removal of Putin either by force or by appointment.

The West will never control Putin or Russia but it’s entirely plausible that China is sick of a hostile and irrational dickhead neighbouring their largest border with the threat of nuclear war always one press conference away. China are many things but they’re not the same level of confrontation.

China keep North Korea on a leash and id imagine their plans are the same for Russia.
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This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
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Plus they have nearly $400billion worth of investment in Europe. No point in having a (multi-trillion $$) road & belt initiative when the end of that road is in ruins.
 
This discussion was a very good listen, arguably the two foremost experts on Russian military in the US. I have been following both Rob Lee and Michael Kofman for the last few months and interestingly this is the first time I've seen both (especially the latter) state that they don't see Putin achieving his political objectives now:

 


The Biden Administration also has people visiting Venezuela to try to mend some relations and potentially find alternative oil to replace Russian oil.

There could be additional capacity in the US, but several fracking industry heads have suggested that their shareholders won't let them expand production or build new wells because they'd rather reap the profits for $150-200/barrel oil.

Can't wait til all the Republicans pushing for this start attacking Democrats for high gas prices.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
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Dont get me wrong China do some awful shit, but they’re not looking for a fight.

Putin really represents the last of these global “strongmen” who are hell bent on world domination and believe real war still exists.

It will be his downfall but it’s what appeals to his base.
 
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