Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rightnr said:
The UK government has been complicit in fostering dirty money by Putin's regime for years and years and now they're dragging their feet in applying sanctions on the criminals they themselves welcomed (and are very well aware of) while barely ensuring that some of the victims of his genocide are welcomed in the UK?

That clear enough to you or shall we talk about more positive vibes?
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Aye it’s crystal clear but it’s nothing to do with the conversation I was having so I’m still confused as to your odd ramblings if I’m honest. No one has disputed any of that.
 
TheReligion said:
Aye it’s crystal clear but it’s nothing to do with the conversation I was having so I’m still confused as to your odd ramblings if I’m honest. No one has disputed any of that.
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The general point is that the UK government have not done nearly as much as people or in fact they themselves are saying.

I won't give them any credit on anything since their sins dating back years are way, way too many.

As for the connection, it's related to the whole glass half full and half empty arguments . Yes, normal people have been great but as we've seen in the last two weeks, governments have the real power and the UK's government is an embarrassment. This is not an exaggeration, it's the truth, as it reflects Johnson's laziness, penchant for lying about what he's actually done/achieved or planning to do and general incompetence in the face of huge issues.

Btw, when I saw government I mean the Tories although I don't know how deep Labour were in this whole mess - it was before I got really into UK politics.
 
RedSky said:
Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if this is a Ukraine trap that Russia falls into. They know its coming and will be well prepared for it imo.
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One would assume the Russians also know that Kyiv is prepared. But then again, they've been so reckless so far that nothing would surprise me anymore.
 
Rightnr said:
The general point is that the UK government have not done nearly as much as people or in fact they themselves are saying.

I won't give them any credit on anything since their sins dating back years are way, way too many.

As for the connection, it's related to the whole glass half full and half empty arguments . Yes, normal people have been great but as we've seen in the last two weeks, governments have the real power and the UK's government is an embarrassment. This is not an exaggeration, it's the truth, as it reflects Johnson's laziness, penchant for lying about what he's actually done/achieved or planning to do and general incompetence in the face of huge issues.

Btw, when I saw government I mean the Tories although I don't know how deep Labour were in this whole mess - it was before I got really into UK politics.
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Despite its failings it’s still done more than a number of other so called leading countries, and much sooner too.

The poster said he’s embarrassed to be British, not the government are embarrassing.
 
TheReligion said:
Despite its failings it’s still done more than a number of other so called leading countries, and much sooner too.

The poster said he’s embarrassed to be British, not the government are embarrassing.
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Well, we voted for these pricks. Repeatedly. It's hard to ignore that fact. At least we are doing something now though, shows the will is there.
 
TheReligion said:
Despite its failings it’s still done more than a number of other so called leading countries, and much sooner too.

The poster said he’s embarrassed to be British, not the government are embarrassing.
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Semantics and in context not that important surely, I got what he meant.
 
TheReligion said:
Despite its failings it’s still done more than a number of other so called leading countries, and much sooner too.

The poster said he’s embarrassed to be British, not the government are embarrassing.
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How many years in a row would the British public have to vote the Tories in power, closing their eyes to the influence of Russia (and other authoritarian states) before it's the responsibility of the British public? That's basically the crux of my point.

Johnson has given the Russians 18 months to cash out? Is that really 'doing enough'?

Yes, they've led on some sanctions like Swift but it was up to the Europeans to agree IIRC since SWIFT is in Belgium. All in all, it's just another special talking operation by Johnson and his cronnies.

I think we're on the same page, it's just that I'm not so ready to give Johnson credit because he's lied too many times for my liking.
 
RedSky said:
Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if this is a Ukraine trap that Russia falls into. They know its coming and will be well prepared for it imo.
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I suspect the Ukrainians want them to try and come into Kyiv in order to stop them dead just for a day or two whilst they then throw everything they have to try and sever the supply route leaving the Russians troops isolated and without resupply of fuel, ammo and provisions.
The whole logistics part of this Russian invasion is their biggest weakness and I think this is why Ukrainian forces have left it alone, they want the Russian forces to commit to the attack before they try and cut it. I suspect there are a load of small, mobile units in vehicles stacked with NLAW/Javelin waiting to perform repeated hit & run strikes on fuel tankers, trucks, engineering vehicles etc. They don’t have to attack the tanks or APCs to stop them, they just run them out of fuel & ammo.
 
T00lsh3d said:
You’re in a tough spot saying anything complimentary about this country here. It was a commendable effort
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This is a thread about a disgraceful war lads, nobody is coming out of it well. What exactly do you want?
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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Considering that Putin has now torn up the Budapest Memorandum not once but twice by invading Ukrainian land, has his army bombing civilians during not one but two ceasefires, and controls Russia with lies and punishments for anyone who says otherwise, I wouldn't really trust anything that Russia agree to. It just feels like kicking the can down the road and Ukraine would be back in this position within a decade.
 
Phurry said:
I suspect the Ukrainians want them to try and come into Kyiv in order to stop them dead just for a day or two whilst they then throw everything they have to try and sever the supply route leaving the Russians troops isolated and without resupply of fuel, ammo and provisions.
The whole logistics part of this Russian invasion is their biggest weakness and I think this is why Ukrainian forces have left it alone, they want the Russian forces to commit to the attack before they try and cut it. I suspect there are a load of small, mobile units in vehicles stacked with NLAW/Javelin waiting to perform repeated hit & run strikes on fuel tankers, trucks, engineering vehicles etc. They don’t have to attack the tanks or APCs to stop them, they just run them out of fuel & ammo.
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I am not so sure that they are really leaving that huge convoy alone. Minimal attacks that just block the road are enough to leave all stuck, as they can't go offroad (would just get stuck in the mud). In a way you could say the northern front has a width of three vehicles.
 
moses said:
This is a thread about a disgraceful war lads, nobody is coming out of it well. What exactly do you want?
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I don’t know, I just read a post saying roughly “isn’t it nice the British public have raised X amount” only for it to be batted back with a bucketload of negativity. Our government are cnuts & we’re worse for voting them in etc etc. We know…. feck me isn’t there enough threads detailing that.
 
T00lsh3d said:
I don’t know, I just read a post saying roughly “isn’t it nice the British public have raised X amount” only for it to be batted back with a bucketload of negativity. Our government are cnuts & we’re worse for voting them in etc etc. We know…. feck me isn’t there enough threads detailing that.
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Yeah, ah I just think it's not that unusual to see any amount of praise for anyone knocked back in this context. Nobody is really doing enough.
 
moses said:
Yeah, ah I just think it's not that unusual to see any amount of praise for anyone knocked back in this context. Nobody is really doing enough.
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Your probably right. It’s Sunday night and I’m tetchy
 
TheReligion said:
how long are the Russian people going to tolerate this? Mass protests and arrests today. Surely this will reach boiling point soon..
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You underestimate fear and complacency, unfortunately. The former in Russia, the latter in the West.

Talking to people in my circle in the West, everyone just accepts surveillance, saying they have nothing to hide. That's all well and good until someone decides they are going to find something you've hidden, real or not.
 
Frosty said:
Depressing. Do the military experts on Twitter think that this is likely to succeed?
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I'm not at all a military expert, but for what it's worth I say "no".

From what I've read, in a big city environs the attackers will lose troops in a roughly 6:1 ratio compared to determined defenders. I'd imagine there are many thousands of Ukrainian troops inside Kiev, well-armed, in defendable positions, highly motivated.

If the Russians really do try to take the city with troops who don't want to be there and whose hearts are really not in it, when their losses hit maybe10,0000 in and around Kiev - and the remaining Russian troops know that there are still many thousands of defenders left - the Russian army will disintegrate: large-scale desertions and surrenders in order to avoid the meat grinder.
 
TheReligion said:
They haven’t had this? Economy in tatters, everything pulling out of the country, prison for protesting or talking out of turn about the war..
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The West is effectively returning Russia to the Soviet era. During Soviet times, you couldn't even buy chocolate without special tokens.

I don't know enough to give you too many examples but I recently have started asking my seniors a bit more about this, since it was never taught to me in school.
 
TheReligion said:
They haven’t had this? Economy in tatters, everything pulling out of the country, prison for protesting or talking out of turn about the war..
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They have had degrees of this over the last 100 years. They have a bigger tolerance for a strongarm state than most. Hopefully this is the tipping point though.
 
moses said:
They have had degrees of this over the last 100 years. They have a bigger tolerance for a strongarm state than most. Hopefully this is the tipping point though.
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I think the big difference is that this time they've had two or three decades of (sort of) democracy and (mostly) free speech. They've never had them and lost them before.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Considering that Putin has now torn up the Budapest Memorandum not once but twice by invading Ukrainian land, has his army bombing civilians during not one but two ceasefires, and controls Russia with lies and punishments for anyone who says otherwise, I wouldn't really trust anything that Russia agree to. It just feels like kicking the can down the road and Ukraine would be back in this position within a decade.
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Maybe so, but Putin might be dead by then. In any case, in a few years, with continued sanctions, Russia will be in economic ruins, perhaps mired in civil unrest, and in no position to finance or mount another invasion. Moreover, the Ukrainian army, with NATO support, will be larger, better trained and better armed than now.

Besides, the only alternative to reaching some kind of deal with Putin would seem to be months of war, leading into years.
 
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