Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

 
Cloud7 said:
And how many sons, husbands, wives, mothers and fathers would they have killed if they weren’t shot down? Sorry, but I have no sympathy for anyone who is part of an army invading a foreign country. It’s not like these pilots are the conscripts that are being forced out into the front lines either. They chose this career and trained in it, knowing what it might entail.

There are no two sides here. If every pilot chose to not be part of this invasion then will Putin order them all to be jailed and executed and then magically make more pilots appear out of nowhere? They are complicit in invading an innocent neighboring country who did nothing. At some point you have to be held accountable for your own actions and not just say you were just following orders.
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That's a fair point and I'm not advocating they shouldn't be shot down, just that we shouldn't celebrate the death of the grunts from either side. These aren't the people calling the shots and having lived in China and Japan for a bit I've seen how seemingly normal, intelligent people can be so easily brainwashed into the party line when it's all they've ever known.
 
Raoul said:
This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

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To be fair Belarus are seen as Russia's accomplices and have been sanctioned. So it actually makes sense.
 
hobbers said:
If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.
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Friday along Southbank in London there was an anti vax protest.

Was like 9 people and they had someone dressed as Boris and all these prop boxes of Vaccinations.

No-one gave a damn about them.
 
Raoul said:
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Saying for a poll that you want to stop Russian gas imports is one thing, accepting the consequences is another matter entirely. A couple of days ago I saw someone from the liberal side, who put a Ukraine flag in his twitter name, blame the government for the increase in gas prices.
 
TMDaines said:
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What a PoS thing to do, assuming he did it willingly because we've seen how that goes in China.

This is why saying sportspeople are innocent in all of this is also naive.
They'll be used every which way by the regime for propaganda.
 
Raoul said:
This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

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To be fair I’m not in favor of Poland allowing them to use Polish airfields, especially with them being so close to my home.
 
Rightnr said:
What a PoS thing to do, assuming he did it willingly because we've seen how that goes in China.

This is why saying sportspeople are innocent in all of this is also naive.
They'll be used every which way by the regime for propaganda.
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He is responsible for his own actions. It's wrong to take the actions of that person and translate it to others because several russian athletes also expressed their disagreement.
 
Raoul said:
That's quite understandable.
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Our government has been very clear on not allowing them to use Polish airports, and have also been very clear that no jets have been offered yet and may never be. It seems to be pressure from Ukraine and maybe US.
 
Sarni said:
Our government has been very clear on not allowing them to use Polish airports, and have also been very clear that no jets have been offered yet and may never be. It seems to be pressure from Ukraine and maybe US.
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At this point its unneeded since it appears the Russians are going backwards without much required assistance from neighboring countries. By this time a week from now, Putin's economy will be in severe pain which will eventually cause him to change his calculus imo.
 
Second United match since the invasion. Still the players can’t muster anything other than “peace” and “no war”. Genuinely pathetic.
 
choccy77 said:
This isn't the official Ukrainian Rally,

That got moved yesterday, because of this Anti War protest which is different and probably why Ukrainans were confused about the messages coming from who ever is running this thing.

Why on earth turn up in some massive truck ffs.
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Yeah, the official one got moved down the road to Parliament Square.
 
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
 
Raoul said:
Sanctioned isn't the same as being militarily attacked. Belarus is little more than Russia's vassal state.
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The point is that Belarus are considered as having entered the war. That's the premise of the sanctions.
 
Sir Matt said:
I genuinely don't know how you look at a tiny old lady protesting and think, "yeah, I'm doing the right thing" when you arrest her. I guess at least they haven't beaten her so far like they do with younger people?

And in Kherson, they've started firing on the Ukrainian population for protesting.

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Ways to make the insurgency worse. Chapter 1…
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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The only viable result is Putin being forced into leaving Ukraine (but not Donbas or Crimea) because sanctions are risking a Russian revolution from within. That is the likeliest and more realistic scenario given that neither side are going to cede any concessions unless they absolutely have to. That means Putin obliterating Ukraine through unprecedented carpet bombing and indiscriminate attacks on all things Ukrainian (including civilians) to force a surrender - or, the scenario in my first sentence that forces Putin to withdraw or else risk being overthrown from within.
 






This is concerning. There've been theories/rumors about Russians using tactical nukes under the guise of Ukraine having nuclear weapons and using them.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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Putin wants control or at least some say over what happens with the natural gas supply in the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian control of that threatens Russia’s monopoly as a natural gas supplier for Europe (they currently provide 50% of Germany’s natural gas supply), and therefore the Russian economy.

I think that and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO (therefore surrounding Belarus on three sides) are what drives him with this. That and the fact that he’s seemingly a bit unhinged.
 
Any updates following the latest conversation between macron and Putin today?
 
Sir Matt said:
The Russians' initial intent was to orchestrate some fast coup by sending in troops to Kyiv and carrying out precision strikes to knock out Ukraine's air defenses. They failed both of those completely. Their detachments sent into Kyiv early on were destroyed. Russia may have some control of the skies, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, but they don't have complete air dominance. If they did, they'd be using it across Ukraine. Since Ukrainian air defenses remain at least partially intact, Russia is highly restricted in where they can fly.

Russia has lost more materiel because it's an invading force against Ukrainians defending their homeland, their logistics suck, and most of their equipment is very dated. Additionally, their military planning and maintenance of said equipment seems to be deficient with all of the trucks getting stuck, breaking down, running out of fuel, etc. Lots of equipment losses by Russia are because their vehicles are stuck, abandoned, or isolated. The Ukrainians only need smaller groups who can move quickly, launch some Stingers/Javelins and move.

Based on reading tweets from actual military academics, there's doubt about whether Russia even has the forces to effectively encircle Kyiv, much less control the rest of Ukraine. Russia has committed 95% of their forces to Ukraine. There aren't hundreds of thousands more troops ready to deploy or equipment to support them. Videos from inside Russia show them moving ancient equipment from the far east, which doesn't bode well for their effectiveness if they are brought into service.
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I have seen this idea of Russian equipment being old and dated circulated around, but I don't understand how it's true. A lot of of the stuff you see on Twitter cannot be relied on, especially war reporting. We are on Ukraine's side and want to see Ukraine succeed in defense so there is a lot of bias in these reports. How can Russia not have enough forces/manpower to encircle Kyiv? That doesn't seem logical.

EDIT: to be clear, to me it seems like a way for the rest of the world to say "yeah! we're helping! Ukraine is winning!" without actually helping. There's a reason Zelensky is pleading every day.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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I think yesterday you also mentioned capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off entirely from any sea access. Perhaps at that point and with those areas under control, and as long as he is not able to take Kiev, he will be willing to negotiate and include those areas in his demands.
 
hobbers said:
If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.
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I think it comes from the nationalistic brexit politics of the era. It doesn’t matter what the message is….as long as you make the most noise
 
TMDaines said:
Very grim scenes from Irpin:
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I think we're not allowed post that here.

On what I've seen, this is harrowing. I'm pretty sure a CNN reporter was at the same bridge Friday or Saturday.
 
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